Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2017 14:21:52 GMT
The boundary changes partially solve this problem by making it Nottingham South and Beeston. This also has the side-effect of lumping the student vote in one area, making Sourby's seat safer. The remainder, however, is 'Broxtowe and Hucknall' - I guess when there is a collection of similarly sized towns which can't be lumped into a compass area then that is the best you can do. Amber Valley though - sounds like a nice place, but risking pitchforks - East Derbyshire. "Amber Valley" is a pretty silly name, yes. A lot of the actual valley of the River Amber is in Bolsover or North East Derbyshire, and the larger towns in the constituency like Alfreton, Ripley and Heanor aren't really on the river; Heanor in particular is nowhere near it. Obviously the constituency name is derived from the district name, but it's far from an obvious name for the district either. Another example of the 1983 boundary changes naming a seat after a district rather than an actual population centre.
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Nov 29, 2017 2:29:05 GMT
With a 2016 electorate of 76,965 this looks like the best way to fir the greatest part of the Congestion Charge zone within a single seat. Absent the wards of Princes and Chaucer and some other small areas in Southwark, Hackney and Tower Hamlets, it's slightly more favourable for the Conservatives than a constituency covering the whole area (which would be grossly oversized) would be. Absent isn't a verb. Oh yes it is, but in any case PW was using it as a preposition.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,893
|
Post by jamie on Apr 1, 2018 21:28:24 GMT
Tyne Valley constituency. Named after the Tyne Valley area (duh) which stretches from Blaydon to Haltwhistle. Not going to happen, but it would mean no Tyne Bridge seat (or river Derwent crossing) and actually works out ok in Northumberland (but not County Durham). Interestingly, the Northumberland county council section only went Conservative by 2000 votes (the 9000 Hexham margin largely comes from Ponteland). The Blaydon section would obviously make this a safe seat for Labour.
|
|
|
Post by catking on Apr 4, 2018 11:38:21 GMT
It’s just that the 1983 boundary changes Named so many seats after local government areas Rather than real places Beeston became Broxtowe, Carlton, Gedling etc. People identify with places not local government areas. Again, agree with this for the most part, both for local and nationwide recognition. For the latter, I think it's important to name after the more well-known population centre(s) regardless of LA, (hence Nottingham West for Broxtowe - they all probably work in Notts and have NG postcodes, 'Beeston' would then anger Stapleford people...) and for the rural ones, stick with county names and compasses rather than strings of unheard of market towns. They shouldn't be afraid to put city names in front of as many areas as possible, even if part of it isn't in the city's LA. When Ed Balls lost I had no idea where Morley or Outwood was, if it had Leeds in the title that would have helped. Nick Clegg though, no problem. Only exception is if the LA name happens to be well known and identified with itself. An amusing example being my very own Bury South which doesn't include Bury itself, but is south of the Bury Council area. Bury itself I'd like to think is reasonably well-known but is actually fully in Bury North. It's tempting to rename South into Prestwich and Radcliffe which may or may not contradict my earlier point, though it is neither Bury or Manchester! The opposite goes for Trafford which is probably more recognisable, nationally and globally, than Stretford and Urmston combined. Should be Old Trafford or Trafford North, even if Trafford technically isn't a town. I'm not sure your proposal to rename Bury South Prestwich & Radcliffe would go down too well with the residents of Whitefield...
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 5, 2018 10:58:46 GMT
Tyne Valley constituency. Named after the Tyne Valley area (duh) which stretches from Blaydon to Haltwhistle. Not going to happen, but it would mean no Tyne Bridge seat (or river Derwent crossing) and actually works out ok in Northumberland (but not County Durham). Interestingly, the Northumberland county council section only went Conservative by 2000 votes (the 9000 Hexham margin largely comes from Ponteland). The Blaydon section would obviously make this a safe seat for Labour. I believe this constituency was in my initial submission to the BCE for the North East.
|
|
|
Post by therealriga on Apr 5, 2018 22:41:55 GMT
Again, agree with this for the most part, both for local and nationwide recognition. For the latter, I think it's important to name after the more well-known population centre(s) regardless of LA, (hence Nottingham West for Broxtowe - they all probably work in Notts and have NG postcodes, 'Beeston' would then anger Stapleford people...) and for the rural ones, stick with county names and compasses rather than strings of unheard of market towns. The opposite goes for Trafford which is probably more recognisable, nationally and globally, than Stretford and Urmston combined. Should be Old Trafford or Trafford North, even if Trafford technically isn't a town. I'm not sure your proposal to rename Bury South Prestwich & Radcliffe would go down too well with the residents of Whitefield... Before I discovered the joys of psephology, I only knew "Old Trafford" as the home of Manchester United Football club. Most people who would know of the latter would know the "Stretford End" as part of the same ground and therefore assume that it's in or near Manchester.
|
|
|
Post by islington on Apr 6, 2018 6:54:17 GMT
Tyne Valley constituency. Named after the Tyne Valley area (duh) which stretches from Blaydon to Haltwhistle. Not going to happen, but it would mean no Tyne Bridge seat (or river Derwent crossing) and actually works out ok in Northumberland (but not County Durham). Interestingly, the Northumberland county council section only went Conservative by 2000 votes (the 9000 Hexham margin largely comes from Ponteland). The Blaydon section would obviously make this a safe seat for Labour. I believe this constituency was in my initial submission to the BCE for the North East. Yes, I think I had the exact same seat as well, except I called it 'Hexham and Blaydon' (and I didn't submit it). The electorate is fine at 76174 and, as Jamie says, it means there's no need for either a Tyne Bridge seat or the mess that BCE has come up with. And I can't see the adverse consequences in Durham that he refers to; in fact I felt Durham worked out quite nicely. I certainly don't see it as a bit of Labour gerrymandering. The seat is perfectly justifiable on an objective application of the rules. It's true that Labour might benefit in this particular case; but applying the rules even-handedly will probably benefit the Tories elsewhere and these things tend to balance out overall. In short, it's a 'fantasy constituency' only in the sense that it won't happen (even if the boundary changes go through) because the BCE hasn't proposed it.
|
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,396
|
Post by bsjmcr on Apr 11, 2018 22:16:16 GMT
Again, agree with this for the most part, both for local and nationwide recognition. For the latter, I think it's important to name after the more well-known population centre(s) regardless of LA, (hence Nottingham West for Broxtowe - they all probably work in Notts and have NG postcodes, 'Beeston' would then anger Stapleford people...) and for the rural ones, stick with county names and compasses rather than strings of unheard of market towns. They shouldn't be afraid to put city names in front of as many areas as possible, even if part of it isn't in the city's LA. When Ed Balls lost I had no idea where Morley or Outwood was, if it had Leeds in the title that would have helped. Nick Clegg though, no problem. Only exception is if the LA name happens to be well known and identified with itself. An amusing example being my very own Bury South which doesn't include Bury itself, but is south of the Bury Council area. Bury itself I'd like to think is reasonably well-known but is actually fully in Bury North. It's tempting to rename South into Prestwich and Radcliffe which may or may not contradict my earlier point, though it is neither Bury or Manchester! The opposite goes for Trafford which is probably more recognisable, nationally and globally, than Stretford and Urmston combined. Should be Old Trafford or Trafford North, even if Trafford technically isn't a town. I'm not sure your proposal to rename Bury South Prestwich & Radcliffe would go down too well with the residents of Whitefield... It wouldn't, you're right, but it isn't as big as Prestwich or Radcliffe. Whitefield to me is more similar to Prestwich than it is to Radcliffe, and Radcliffe is contrasting to Prestwich so as to reflect the nature and indeed geography of the whole seat. Anything but another Normanton... On a slightly unrelated note, it was brought to my attention the extent to which both Jeff Smith and John Leech refer to M'cr Withington as just 'South Manchester', i.e. in many if not most of their taglines. Makes sense to their constituents given the strong identities of the other areas outside Withington itself, though a whole rename wouldn't make sense I guess as Wythenshawe is the true South Manchester. Whereas with Blackley ('and Broughton')...
|
|
|
Post by catking on Apr 12, 2018 8:29:12 GMT
I'm not sure your proposal to rename Bury South Prestwich & Radcliffe would go down too well with the residents of Whitefield... It wouldn't, you're right, but it isn't as big as Prestwich or Radcliffe. Whitefield to me is more similar to Prestwich than it is to Radcliffe, and Radcliffe is contrasting to Prestwich so as to reflect the nature and indeed geography of the whole seat. Anything but another Normanton... On a slightly unrelated note, it was brought to my attention the extent to which both Jeff Smith and John Leech refer to M'cr Withington as just 'South Manchester', i.e. in many if not most of their taglines. Makes sense to their constituents given the strong identities of the other areas outside Withington itself, though a whole rename wouldn't make sense I guess as Wythenshawe is the true South Manchester. Whereas with Blackley ('and Broughton')...
Whitefield is only slightly smaller than Prestwich or Radcliffe in terms of population. It also spans 4 council wards compared to Radcliffe's 3 and Prestwich's 3.
But yes, Whitefield is much closer in character to Prestwich than Radcliffe. Prestwich and Whitefield are both traditional Manchester suburbs with a sizeable Jewish population. Radcliffe is a Lancashire ex-mill town.
What is interesting is that Prestwich at least appears to be trending Labour in the long run while Radcliffe is moving towards the Tories.
In terms of fantasy constituencies, I always liked the idea of a seat with Whitefield, Prestwich, Kersal and Broughton. You could call it Heaton Park.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2018 12:39:16 GMT
It wouldn't, you're right, but it isn't as big as Prestwich or Radcliffe. Whitefield to me is more similar to Prestwich than it is to Radcliffe, and Radcliffe is contrasting to Prestwich so as to reflect the nature and indeed geography of the whole seat. Anything but another Normanton... On a slightly unrelated note, it was brought to my attention the extent to which both Jeff Smith and John Leech refer to M'cr Withington as just 'South Manchester', i.e. in many if not most of their taglines. Makes sense to their constituents given the strong identities of the other areas outside Withington itself, though a whole rename wouldn't make sense I guess as Wythenshawe is the true South Manchester. Whereas with Blackley ('and Broughton')...
Whitefield is only slightly smaller than Prestwich or Radcliffe in terms of population. It also spans 4 council wards compared to Radcliffe's 3 and Prestwich's 3.
But yes, Whitefield is much closer in character to Prestwich than Radcliffe. Prestwich and Whitefield are both traditional Manchester suburbs with a sizeable Jewish population. Radcliffe is a Lancashire ex-mill town.
What is interesting is that Prestwich at least appears to be trending Labour in the long run while Radcliffe is moving towards the Tories.
In terms of fantasy constituencies, I always liked the idea of a seat with Whitefield, Prestwich, Kersal and Broughton. You could call it Heaton Park.
The Labour candidate for Heaton Park would want his vote to be rigid, he could call his supporters the stone roses....
|
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,396
|
Post by bsjmcr on Apr 16, 2018 23:11:20 GMT
It wouldn't, you're right, but it isn't as big as Prestwich or Radcliffe. Whitefield to me is more similar to Prestwich than it is to Radcliffe, and Radcliffe is contrasting to Prestwich so as to reflect the nature and indeed geography of the whole seat. Anything but another Normanton... On a slightly unrelated note, it was brought to my attention the extent to which both Jeff Smith and John Leech refer to M'cr Withington as just 'South Manchester', i.e. in many if not most of their taglines. Makes sense to their constituents given the strong identities of the other areas outside Withington itself, though a whole rename wouldn't make sense I guess as Wythenshawe is the true South Manchester. Whereas with Blackley ('and Broughton')...
Whitefield is only slightly smaller than Prestwich or Radcliffe in terms of population. It also spans 4 council wards compared to Radcliffe's 3 and Prestwich's 3.
But yes, Whitefield is much closer in character to Prestwich than Radcliffe. Prestwich and Whitefield are both traditional Manchester suburbs with a sizeable Jewish population. Radcliffe is a Lancashire ex-mill town.
What is interesting is that Prestwich at least appears to be trending Labour in the long run while Radcliffe is moving towards the Tories.
In terms of fantasy constituencies, I always liked the idea of a seat with Whitefield, Prestwich, Kersal and Broughton. You could call it Heaton Park.
Funnily enough I always considered Unsworth not to be part of Whitefield but just a town in itself, or if anything, an extension of Bury. I do wonder what the purpose of moving Unsworth into Bury South in 2010 was - nothing was added to Bury North to compensate so it has just been left undersized - was South really undersized beforehand?
|
|
|
Post by catking on Apr 17, 2018 8:54:45 GMT
About a third of Unsworth ward is the Elms estate which is definitely Whitefield. M45 postcode and all. The reason Unsworth needed moving is to refelct the 2004 ward boundary changes. The old Unsworth ward used to include the southern half of what is now Redvales ward, which is north of the river. The ward boundary change moved that area into Redvales (making Redvales marginal in extremely bad years for Labour) and moved the Elms estate from Pilkington Park into Unsworth (making Unsworth reliably Labour and Pilkington Park much much more Tory). After that, it was logical to move Unsworth into Bury South to make the river the constituency boundary.
Unsworth is actually a really bad name for Unsworth ward, given that a third of the ward is Whitefield, another third is Hollins village and about half of what is actually "Unsworth" is in Besses ward.
It's also worth noting that a good chunk of Holyrood ward is also Whitefield. It's just detached from the rest of Whitefield by the motorway.
The ward boundaries in Bury are a bit of a jumble. Anyone seeking to try and get very favourable ward boundary changes could do a lot worse than look at the 2004 Bury changes. A truly masterful set of changes.
|
|
goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
|
Post by goose on Jul 26, 2018 21:47:12 GMT
Following on from Lord Twaddleford 's post regarding alternative Welsh Assembly arrangements, I've created a set of constituencies for Wales that could've been used had the 2018 Review been based on the old rules but with a nationwide quota, this would give Wales an entitlement of 32 seats. These boundaries could therefore be used concurrently for the Welsh Assembly with 28 regional list top up seats. 1. Wrexham - 69,763 2. Alyn & Deeside - 73,259 3. Delyn - 65,796 4. Denbigh - 74,069 5. Montgomery & Merionethshire - 70,201 6. Caernarfon Nant Conwy - 70,705 7. Colwyn & Conwy - 75,035 8. Ynys Mon - 49,287 9. Llanelli - 65,868 10. Carmarthen - 68,019 11. Ceredigion & North Pembrokeshire - 63,424 12. Pembroke - 74,070 13. Brecon & Radnorshire - 52,273 14. Bridgend - 67,388 15. Ogmore & Port Talbot - 76,391 16. Neath & Swansea East - 76,208 17. Swansea West - 73,500 18. Gower - 78,056 19. Pontypridd - 72,424 20. Merthyr Tydfil - 69,236 21. Rhondda & Aberdare - 67,375 22. Monmouth - 74,532 23. Pontypool - 66,153 24. Newport - 74,854 25. Islwyn - 71,511 26. Ebbw Vale - 60,745 27. Caerphilly - 62,765 28. Barry - 63,537 29. Cardiff South & Penarth - 59,212 30. Cardiff West - 63,892 31. Cardiff East - 68,635 32. Cardiff North - 63,658 Here are my best guesses at how these constituencies would have voted: 2016 Assembly ElectionLabour: 20 Plaid Cymru: 6 Conservative: 5 Liberal Democrat: 1 Some rough regional list results... North Wales
Labour: 1 Plaid Cymru: 2 Conservative: 1 UKIP: 2 Liberal Democrat: 1 Mid & West Wales
Labour: 2 Conservative: 2 UKIP: 2 Plaid Cymru: 1 South Wales West
Conservative: 3 Plaid Cymru: 2 UKIP: 1 Liberal Democrat: 1 South Wales East
Labour: 1 Plaid Cymru: 2 UKIP: 3 Conservative: 1 Regional list Total
UKIP: 8 Plaid Cymru: 7 Conservative: 7 Labour: 4 Liberal Democrat: 2 Total
Labour: 24 Plaid Cymru: 13 Conservative: 12 UKIP: 8 Liberal Democrat: 3 This means Labour would be reliant on Plaid Cymru to govern. 2017 General ElectionLabour: 23 Conservative: 7 Plaid Cymru: 2 (Carmarthen is a three way ultra marginal so it's difficult to know exactly who would have won it) Difficult to understate how vulnerable Plaid Cymru is on these boundaries, Ceredigion & North Pembrokeshire is a four way ultra marginal and Caernarfon Nant Conwy requires less than a 3% swing for Labour to take it. Their only possible target seats being Carmarthen, where they're second in a three way ultra marginal and Ynys Mon where they're narrowly in third place behind the Conservatives. The Conservatives are also very vulnerable, with Barry, Pembroke, Carmarthen and Colwyn & Conwy all being highly marginal. Their best hopes for gains are Denbigh and Ceredigion & North Pembrokeshire Any Welsh boundaries tend to be good for Labour and these are no exception, they have potential gains in Barry, Pembroke, Carmarthen, Ceredigion & North Pembrokeshire, Caernarfon Nant Conwy and Colwyn & Conwy. They have few vulnerabilities with Denbigh being the only seat to really worry about. The Liberal Democrats greatest hope lies in Ceredigion & North Pembrokeshire where they are in second, only requiring a swing of 0.5% to win, however both the Conservatives and Labour are also within 1,500 votes of winning the constituency. Long term target: Brecon & Radnorshire and they will have to scrap with Labour and Plaid Cymru for second place in Montgomery & Merionethshire.
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,241
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 26, 2018 22:23:16 GMT
When will the idea that the Maelor Saesneg really belongs in Shropshire be properly debated? The clue is in the name.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 26, 2018 22:24:44 GMT
When will the idea that the Maelor Saesneg really belongs in Shropshire be properly debated? The clue is in the name. When enough people live there for it to matter?
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 27, 2018 8:27:35 GMT
Following on from Lord Twaddleford 's post regarding alternative Welsh Assembly arrangements, I've created a set of constituencies for Wales that could've been used had the 2018 Review been based on the old rules but with a nationwide quota, this would give Wales an entitlement of 32 seats. These boundaries could therefore be used concurrently for the Welsh Assembly with 28 regional list top up seats. ... 13. Brecon & Radnorshire - 52,273 20. Merthyr Tydfil - 69,236 21. Rhondda & Aberdare - 67,375 Presumably you could address the undersizedness of Brecon & Radnor by expanding it to include areas which were traditionally in the county of Breconshire, though I'm not sure how easy it is to do this with the current ward boundaries
|
|
goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
|
Post by goose on Jul 27, 2018 8:53:55 GMT
Following on from Lord Twaddleford 's post regarding alternative Welsh Assembly arrangements, I've created a set of constituencies for Wales that could've been used had the 2018 Review been based on the old rules but with a nationwide quota, this would give Wales an entitlement of 32 seats. These boundaries could therefore be used concurrently for the Welsh Assembly with 28 regional list top up seats. ... 13. Brecon & Radnorshire - 52,273 20. Merthyr Tydfil - 69,236 21. Rhondda & Aberdare - 67,375 Presumably you could address the undersizedness of Brecon & Radnor by expanding it to include areas which were traditionally in the county of Breconshire, though I'm not sure how easy it is to do this with the current ward boundaries I did attempt this but the issue is as you say is that ward boundaries don't align with the old county boundaries. Furthermore, Brynmawr is now part of the Blaenau Gwent conurbation and so couldn't be separated off very easily, and to compound these issues such an enlarged constituency would have parts in five different local authorities. Under these circumstances I think Brecon & Radnorshire is justified in being undersized.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 27, 2018 12:51:31 GMT
If equalising electorates were the aim, I think the simpler option might be to extend the seat down the Swansea Valley as far as Pontardawe.
|
|
goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
|
Post by goose on Jul 27, 2018 12:56:12 GMT
If equalising electorates were the aim, I think the simpler option might be to extend the seat down the Swansea Valley as far as Pontardawe. I did that in the Pat Glass amendment thread and was accused of butchering the seat . To be honest I'm inclined to agree with the critics.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 27, 2018 12:59:23 GMT
I'm minded to agree. Crossing the Brecon & Radnor/Montgomery border doesn't seem problematic to me, but every other direction creates more problems than it solves and just demonstrates why purely numerical methods don't work.
|
|