mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Sept 18, 2017 21:26:24 GMT
Lord Twaddleford, you can solve the Leckwith problem by dropping Cardiff from the name. Not only does Leckwith and Penarth North sound better, but it follows what happens when Westminster constituencies move to straddle the city boundary (Liverpool Garston > Garston and Halewood; Glasgow Rutherglen > Rutherglen and Hamilton West).
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Sept 19, 2017 9:32:21 GMT
Lord Twaddleford , you can solve the Leckwith problem by dropping Cardiff from the name. Not only does Leckwith and Penarth North sound better, but it follows what happens when Westminster constituencies move to straddle the city boundary (Liverpool Garston > Garston and Halewood; Glasgow Rutherglen > Rutherglen and Hamilton West). While not disagreeing with your general point, Rutherglen has of course not been part of Glasgow since 1996 (except for NHS purposes only until 2014). Rutherglen seat became Glasgow Rutherglen in 1983 after the 1975 local government reorganisation added Rutherglen to Glasgow district. The renaming to Rutherglen and Hamilton West in 2005 coincided with the removal of the Castlemilk and Toryglen areas that had remained in Glasgow after 1996 meaning it was now purely a South Lanarkshire seat.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 19, 2017 20:11:54 GMT
And because I figured, "Hey! Why not?", I did some rough notionals for 2007 and 2011. 2007: The result for the Cardiff Tongwynlais seat, which I have here going Conservative, is largely guess work, but considering the magnitude of the Tory vote in Cardiff West and Cardiff North seat that year (with the latter actually turning blue), I don't think it's too unreasonable to assume that the Conservatives could've won a seat in Cardiff on those boundaries. A similar story goes for Cardiff Llanishen, which takes parts of Cardiff Central instead, which admittedly I am less sure about, but I think it's likely that the Labour could've squeaked by in this one; if it had voted Tory then according to my calculations that the it would not have affected how the list seats fell- seems Labour was in overhang territory here. Also, note that the BNP would've won seats on the list at this ratio of constituency to list seats. 2011: UKIP would've entered the Assembly a little earlier had this arrangement been the case, also note the Green Party actually gaining a seat on the lists in South Wales Central. Under the 50 constituencies + 35 list seats scheme, Welsh Conservative party leader Nick Bourne would've survived. Still have Denbigh going Conservative here as despite the upswing in the Labour vote in Clwyd South (Ruabon, Chirk, Llangollen, Rhosllannerchrugog, Cefn Mawr) and Vale of Clwyd (Denbigh, Llandyrnog) in 2011, there was also a substantial upswing in the Conservative vote in Clwyd West (Ruthin, the rest of that seat's Denbighshire components), which makes me think that if this seat actually existed, it would very likely have gone in the blue column that year.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Sept 22, 2017 17:01:25 GMT
Lord Twaddleford , you can solve the Leckwith problem by dropping Cardiff from the name. Not only does Leckwith and Penarth North sound better, but it follows what happens when Westminster constituencies move to straddle the city boundary (Liverpool Garston > Garston and Halewood; Glasgow Rutherglen > Rutherglen and Hamilton West). I'll have to disagree with that one, we need less of that trend! The trend of from the well-known to the unknown whereby nobody else except anoraks and people who live there will know where the heck it is. It doesn't matter if part of it is outside a city, much of that population 'outside' it will still identify with the city, have its postcode, etc. Since this is the 'fantasy constituencies' page, I'll add my 2p, though a few nerves might be hit round here: My least favourite, Blackley and Broughton -> Manchester North & Salford East (or & Broughton) Broxtowe -> Nottingham West (there's already a North, East and South!) Rushcliffe (or 'West Bridgford' in 2018) -> Nottingham, West Bridgford (otherwise the new one will commonly be called 'Bridgford West' mistakenly no doubt) Garston and Halewood -> Liverpool South (& Halewood) Wythenshawe and Sale East -> Manchester South (put Sale together somehow) Stretford & Urmston -> Trafford North or Old Trafford Hyndburn -> Accrington Halton -> Runcorn & Widnes Sefton 'Central' -> Crosby & Formby Eddisbury -> Winsford or South West Cheshire Weaver Vale -> Northwich Westmoreland & Lonsdale -> Kendal and Windermere The 'City of' prefixes could do with dropping for places like Chester, or for the sake of succinctness, City of Durham -> Durham City/Durham Central.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 22, 2017 19:26:01 GMT
Not sure of ward electorates, but I'm hopeful there could be something like this under 650, would definitely be doable with 10% variance: Newcastle West - Evertything west of the A1 plus Kenton and Blakelaw Newcastle Central - Benwell to Heaton Newcastle East - Byker to most of North Shields Newcastle North - Gosforth along with the Longbenton area towns
Finally unite everything in Newcastle in Parliament, if not yet in council 😁
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2017 10:44:30 GMT
Lord Twaddleford , you can solve the Leckwith problem by dropping Cardiff from the name. Not only does Leckwith and Penarth North sound better, but it follows what happens when Westminster constituencies move to straddle the city boundary (Liverpool Garston > Garston and Halewood; Glasgow Rutherglen > Rutherglen and Hamilton West). I'll have to disagree with that one, we need less of that trend! The trend of from the well-known to the unknown whereby nobody else except anoraks and people who live there will know where the heck it is. It doesn't matter if part of it is outside a city, much of that population 'outside' it will still identify with the city, have its postcode, etc. Since this is the 'fantasy constituencies' page, I'll add my 2p, though a few nerves might be hit round here: My least favourite, Blackley and Broughton -> Manchester North & Salford East (or & Broughton) Broxtowe -> Nottingham West (there's already a North, East and South!) Rushcliffe (or 'West Bridgford' in 2018) -> Nottingham, West Bridgford (otherwise the new one will commonly be called 'Bridgford West' mistakenly no doubt) Garston and Halewood -> Liverpool South (& Halewood) Wythenshawe and Sale East -> Manchester South (put Sale together somehow) Stretford & Urmston -> Trafford North or Old Trafford Hyndburn -> Accrington Halton -> Runcorn & Widnes Sefton 'Central' -> Crosby & Formby Eddisbury -> Winsford or South West Cheshire Weaver Vale -> Northwich Westmoreland & Lonsdale -> Kendal and Windermere The 'City of' prefixes could do with dropping for places like Chester, or for the sake of succinctness, City of Durham -> Durham City/Durham Central. Nope.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 24, 2017 11:37:23 GMT
I'll have to disagree with that one, we need less of that trend! The trend of from the well-known to the unknown whereby nobody else except anoraks and people who live there will know where the heck it is. It doesn't matter if part of it is outside a city, much of that population 'outside' it will still identify with the city, have its postcode, etc. Since this is the 'fantasy constituencies' page, I'll add my 2p, though a few nerves might be hit round here: My least favourite, Blackley and Broughton -> Manchester North & Salford East (or & Broughton) Broxtowe -> Nottingham West (there's already a North, East and South!) Rushcliffe (or 'West Bridgford' in 2018) -> Nottingham, West Bridgford (otherwise the new one will commonly be called 'Bridgford West' mistakenly no doubt) Garston and Halewood -> Liverpool South (& Halewood) Wythenshawe and Sale East -> Manchester South (put Sale together somehow) Stretford & Urmston -> Trafford North or Old Trafford Hyndburn -> Accrington Halton -> Runcorn & Widnes Sefton 'Central' -> Crosby & Formby Eddisbury -> Winsford or South West Cheshire Weaver Vale -> Northwich Westmoreland & Lonsdale -> Kendal and Windermere The 'City of' prefixes could do with dropping for places like Chester, or for the sake of succinctness, City of Durham -> Durham City/Durham Central. Nope. Sefton Central only includes half of Crosby which is why it's Sefton Central. It includes all of Formby and Maghull, and two out of four Crosby wards, one if which is only half Crosby and the other half Hightown which is a separate village between Crosby and Formby
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 24, 2017 11:54:46 GMT
I'm not convinced that 50 FPTP seats + 35 top-up seats is the best solution for the Assembly anyway, although it's not a bad starting point if you want to avoid tumbling into STV. I think we'd do well to get rid of the top-up mess entirely, even though Labour would be the main beneficiaries, and go for about 90 FPTP (or AV) constituencies. There's nothing inherently wrong with the list seat mechanism, all that's really needed is a switch to open lists, and to increase the proportion of list seats to make the system more proportional. At this point I don't think scrapping the use of PR is going to fly (to which I say: "Good!"). Additionally, if those are the best boundaries anyone can come up with for a 90-constituency Welsh Assembly, then I think I'd rather stick with what we have now...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2017 12:04:42 GMT
Not sure of ward electorates, but I'm hopeful there could be something like this under 650, would definitely be doable with 10% variance: Newcastle West - Evertything west of the A1 plus Kenton and Blakelaw Newcastle Central - Benwell to Heaton Newcastle East - Byker to most of North Shields Newcastle North - Gosforth along with the Longbenton area towns Finally unite everything in Newcastle in Parliament, if not yet in council 😁 Not sure whether my parents would be in Central East or North on that basis. Probably central.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 18, 2017 11:24:22 GMT
What the Thames Valley might look like if we had around 750 or 800 MPs
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2017 15:20:21 GMT
Lord Twaddleford , you can solve the Leckwith problem by dropping Cardiff from the name. Not only does Leckwith and Penarth North sound better, but it follows what happens when Westminster constituencies move to straddle the city boundary (Liverpool Garston > Garston and Halewood; Glasgow Rutherglen > Rutherglen and Hamilton West). I'll have to disagree with that one, we need less of that trend! The trend of from the well-known to the unknown whereby nobody else except anoraks and people who live there will know where the heck it is. It doesn't matter if part of it is outside a city, much of that population 'outside' it will still identify with the city, have its postcode, etc. Since this is the 'fantasy constituencies' page, I'll add my 2p, though a few nerves might be hit round here: My least favourite, Blackley and Broughton -> Manchester North & Salford East (or & Broughton) Broxtowe -> Nottingham West (there's already a North, East and South!) Rushcliffe (or 'West Bridgford' in 2018) -> Nottingham, West Bridgford (otherwise the new one will commonly be called 'Bridgford West' mistakenly no doubt) Garston and Halewood -> Liverpool South (& Halewood) Wythenshawe and Sale East -> Manchester South (put Sale together somehow) Stretford & Urmston -> Trafford North or Old Trafford Hyndburn -> Accrington Halton -> Runcorn & Widnes Sefton 'Central' -> Crosby & Formby Eddisbury -> Winsford or South West Cheshire Weaver Vale -> Northwich Westmoreland & Lonsdale -> Kendal and Windermere The 'City of' prefixes could do with dropping for places like Chester, or for the sake of succinctness, City of Durham -> Durham City/Durham Central. Broxtowe -> Nottingham WestWhy not Beeston? Rushcliffe (or 'West Bridgford' in 2018) -> Nottingham, West Bridgford
I'd prefer keeping Rushcliffe or calling it South Nottinghamshire. Wythenshawe and Sale East -> Manchester South (put Sale together somehow)I'd prefer to have Altrincham & Sale and Manchester, Wythenshawe. Garston and Halewood -> Liverpool South (& Halewood)Liverpool, Garston is a more historic name. Westmoreland & Lonsdale -> Kendal and WindermereWestmorland would be a concise name.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 18, 2017 15:32:53 GMT
But Londsdale is in Lancashire so it would be inaccurate to call it just Westmorland
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Nov 19, 2017 2:51:02 GMT
But Londsdale is in Lancashire so it would be inaccurate to call it just Westmorland No, Lonsdale is in Cumberland. Lunesdale is in Lancashire.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 19, 2017 8:09:40 GMT
But Londsdale is in Lancashire so it would be inaccurate to call it just Westmorland No, Lonsdale is in Cumberland. Lunesdale is in Lancashire.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 19, 2017 12:20:25 GMT
But Londsdale is in Lancashire so it would be inaccurate to call it just Westmorland No, Lonsdale is in Cumberland. Lunesdale is in Lancashire. So what was the pre-1983 constituency "Morecambe and Lonsdale" all about?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2017 15:24:18 GMT
But Londsdale is in Lancashire so it would be inaccurate to call it just Westmorland No, Lonsdale is in Cumberland. Lunesdale is in Lancashire. Nope.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Nov 19, 2017 22:16:03 GMT
No, Lonsdale is in Cumberland. Lunesdale is in Lancashire. So what was the pre-1983 constituency "Morecambe and Lonsdale" all about? A sponsorship deal with the clothing company.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2017 19:42:30 GMT
I just think
pre-1983
the names were better
Why call a seat 'Gordon' when you can call it Aberdeenshire East etc?
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Post by greenhert on Nov 20, 2017 21:20:02 GMT
@conservativeestimate, Gordon's closest predecessor was West Aberdeenshire, although it should have been called Mid Aberdeenshire. East Aberdeenshire was largely succeeded by Banff & Buchan.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2017 21:56:30 GMT
It’s just that the 1983 boundary changes
Named so many seats after local government areas
Rather than real places
Beeston became Broxtowe, Carlton, Gedling etc.
People identify with places not local government areas.
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