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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 7, 2017 18:21:34 GMT
Northern Irish Unionism For whom the bell tolls The bell tolls for thee: Just like the GB polls, it's within the margin of error.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 7, 2017 21:27:46 GMT
Northern Irish Unionism For whom the bell tolls The bell tolls for thee: Just like the GB polls, it's within the margin of error. Yes, but it has never been this close before. Not saying it is true, but....
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 7, 2017 21:36:19 GMT
Just like the GB polls, it's within the margin of error. Yes, but it has never been this close before. Not saying it is true, but.... Being within the margin of error is pretty uncomfortable for those of us who are in favour of the UK, especially as this simply wasn't a live issue two years ago. As with most polls a consistent trend will worry memory than a one-off. (I daresay neilm will be happy enough and hoping for a similar move in Scotland!)
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 7, 2017 21:39:10 GMT
Just like the GB polls, it's within the margin of error. Yes, but it has never been this close before. Not saying it is true, but.... Of course there is also the matter of an increase in the proportion of catholics in NI. I've heard somewhere that they may make up the plurality soon, if not already. Time will tell if a "republican" party will be the largest at stormont and/or Westminster which would spell disaster for the Union.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2017 21:49:04 GMT
I think Westminister is more likely under the new boundaries SF already ahead
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 7, 2017 21:57:45 GMT
I think Westminister is more likely under the new boundaries SF already ahead It's unlikely those boundaries would pass through though, but still we are on course for it to happen quite soon.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Dec 7, 2017 22:51:52 GMT
It's a mixture of things.
Some of it is due to demographic drift with older predominantly Protestant cohorts dying off and being replaced by younger, proportionately more Catholic, cohorts.
But Brexit - and particularly Brexit being followed up by a Conservative/DUP alliance at Westminster and effectively at Stormont - has pulled the rug from beneath a lot of soft nationalist or Alliance-voting Catholics who were content with the status quo post-GFA and had no desire to rock the boat. Suddenly finding the boat being rocked by others means that there's no advantage in being moderate. In addition, a lot of neutrals who don't view themselves as belonging to either tribe are not going to have any enthusiasm for the DUP being allowed to call the shots locally without any restraint from the UK government or for the prospect of Rees-Moggery or Govery.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 8, 2017 16:01:08 GMT
The union has survived hard left governments in westminster so I doubt Brexit will produce much of a dent in the support for Unionism. What does concern me is the continuation of the increase of the catholic population. Steps must be taken to preserve the Union from this specific threat.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2017 16:32:23 GMT
In the last Assembly elections the unionist vote lost their maj for the first time.
Bit unfair to refer to Macmillan has hard left
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2017 19:54:49 GMT
The union has survived hard left governments in westminster so I doubt Brexit will produce much of a dent in the support for Unionism. What does concern me is the continuation of the increase of the catholic population. Steps must be taken to preserve the Union from this specific threat. There was an Austrian chap in the 1930s who had similar thoughts.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 8, 2017 20:04:32 GMT
The union has survived hard left governments in westminster so I doubt Brexit will produce much of a dent in the support for Unionism. What does concern me is the continuation of the increase of the catholic population. Steps must be taken to preserve the Union from this specific threat. Seriously? You are obviously going for the Troll of the Year title.
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Post by BossMan on Dec 8, 2017 21:34:35 GMT
The union has survived hard left governments in westminster so I doubt Brexit will produce much of a dent in the support for Unionism. What does concern me is the continuation of the increase of the catholic population. Steps must be taken to preserve the Union from this specific threat. Would you care to outline those steps for us.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 8, 2017 21:42:29 GMT
The union has survived hard left governments in westminster so I doubt Brexit will produce much of a dent in the support for Unionism. What does concern me is the continuation of the increase of the catholic population. Steps must be taken to preserve the Union from this specific threat. Would you care to outline those steps for us. Certainly. As many on here have already said, Protestants are leaving NI to find opportunities elsewhere while the catholic population have a greater tendancy to stay. NI is a key part of our precious Union so we can encourage the economic liberalisation there allowing more private investment to the region. This will encourage more internal migration within the UK which in turn will allign the demographics of NI more closely with the mainland.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 8, 2017 21:42:48 GMT
I contacted my local council (Newry & Mourne at the time, as it happens) to ask them what they were doing to counter the risk of a Dalek invasion. They told me steps had been put in place...
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Dec 8, 2017 21:52:58 GMT
I contacted my local council (Newry & Mourne at the time, as it happens) to ask them what they were doing to counter the risk of a Dalek invasion. They told me steps had been put in place...
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Dec 8, 2017 23:00:45 GMT
Polls have consistently indicated support for remaining in the Union since Brexit is between 63-70% in Northern Ireland. Because of that, I'm not going to take a single out-of-line poll with strange wording at face value. This poll doesn't even fit in with recent election results in Northern Ireland or census returns, where British/Unionists make up around 50%+. Actually the voting intention figures in the poll, in terms of the total Unionist and Nationalist blocs, are not greatly different from previous elections. Unionism has been significantly below 50% in both the last Assembly and Westminster elections. You can reasonably argue that the question posed is a worst-case hypothetical and that the phrasing ("remain in the EU") is marginally more likely to produce a positive answer (although I doubt if it's going to confuse many people). But pretending that Brexit, the push within the Tory party towards a British nationalist isolationism, and the continuing behaviour of the Tory government in alliance with one party in Northern Ireland, acting as if the DUP are the only voices worth listening to in NI, are not antagonising the centre of the electorate (moderate Nationalists happy with the pre-Brexit status quo, some liberal small-u unionists, "none of the aboves", and even the largely mythical Catholic Unionists) is wilful blindness.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 8, 2017 23:09:08 GMT
Polls have consistently indicated support for remaining in the Union since Brexit is between 63-70% in Northern Ireland. Because of that, I'm not going to take a single out-of-line poll with strange wording at face value. This poll doesn't even fit in with recent election results in Northern Ireland or census returns, where British/Unionists make up around 50%+. Actually the voting intention figures in the poll, in terms of the total Unionist and Nationalist blocs, are not greatly different from previous elections. Unionism has been significantly below 50% in both the last Assembly and Westminster elections. You can reasonably argue that the question posed is a worst-case hypothetical and that the phrasing ("remain in the EU") is marginally more likely to produce a positive answer (although I doubt if it's going to confuse many people). But pretending that Brexit, the push within the Tory party towards a British nationalist isolationism, and the continuing behaviour of the Tory government in alliance with one party in Northern Ireland, acting as if the DUP are the only voices worth listening to in NI, are not antagonising the centre of the electorate (moderate Nationalists happy with the pre-Brexit status quo, some liberal small-u unionists, "none of the aboves", and even the largely mythical Catholic Unionists) is wilful blindness. *waves*
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Dec 8, 2017 23:10:37 GMT
Would you care to outline those steps for us. Certainly. As many on here have already said, Protestants are leaving NI to find opportunities elsewhere while the catholic population have a greater tendancy to stay. NI is a key part of our precious Union so we can encourage the economic liberalisation there allowing more private investment to the region. This will encourage more internal migration within the UK which in turn will allign the demographics of NI more closely with the mainland. Ulster Plantation 2.0 really seems like a brilliant plan to make Northern Ireland more stable and prosperous. No risk of things kicking off again at all. Tell me, how many hours Internet access do you get in Ward 8 of Broadmoor?
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Dec 8, 2017 23:11:39 GMT
Actually the voting intention figures in the poll, in terms of the total Unionist and Nationalist blocs, are not greatly different from previous elections. Unionism has been significantly below 50% in both the last Assembly and Westminster elections. You can reasonably argue that the question posed is a worst-case hypothetical and that the phrasing ("remain in the EU") is marginally more likely to produce a positive answer (although I doubt if it's going to confuse many people). But pretending that Brexit, the push within the Tory party towards a British nationalist isolationism, and the continuing behaviour of the Tory government in alliance with one party in Northern Ireland, acting as if the DUP are the only voices worth listening to in NI, are not antagonising the centre of the electorate (moderate Nationalists happy with the pre-Brexit status quo, some liberal small-u unionists, "none of the aboves", and even the largely mythical Catholic Unionists) is wilful blindness. *waves* I did say "largely".
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 8, 2017 23:12:09 GMT
We haven’t gone away you know.
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