CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 7, 2017 10:19:12 GMT
Ideally, the DUP could be pushed down to 6 and SF to 3 (with the UUP on 4 + Hermon, the SDLP on 2, and Alliance on 2). This assumes a marginal swing (<5%) to a 'moderate' challenger, which is simply not feasible in most constituencies in NI, but Belfast East could deliver a surprise with the return of the UUP to that constituency, and Belfast South will definitely be one to watch too. It broke records last time with the lowest winning vote share ever in a GE, and is a three-way marginal at the moment, so Alasdair McDonnell could be in for the fight of his life. CatholicLeft Why do you think Ritchie is in danger? Her seat is technically 'safe', and the swing from the SDLP to SF doesn't seem too dramatic this time around. curiousliberal South Down Assembly election result 2nd March, 2017 turnout 66.2% (up 9.4% on GE in 2015) Sinn Fein: 19, 083 (38.7%) SDLP: 12, 443 (25.1%) That is going to take a lot of Unionist backing to overturn, even if some SF voters vote for Richie at the GE.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 7, 2017 10:43:48 GMT
Belfast South will be very interesting:
2017 Assembly election: DUP - 20.8% (-1.4 on 2015 Westminster election) SDLP - 19.4% (-5.1) All - 17.8% (+0.6) SF - 17.7% (+3.8) Grn - 9.9% (+4.2) UUP - 9.0% (-0.1) Oth - 5.4% (-2.0)
I imagine that Sinn Fein, the Greens and the UUP will do worse compared to the Assembly vote here. That's probably contributing to the LucidTalk prediction of an SDLP hold.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 7, 2017 23:55:44 GMT
Ideally, the DUP could be pushed down to 6 and SF to 3 (with the UUP on 4 + Hermon, the SDLP on 2, and Alliance on 2). This assumes a marginal swing (<5%) to a 'moderate' challenger, which is simply not feasible in most constituencies in NI, but Belfast East could deliver a surprise with the return of the UUP to that constituency, and Belfast South will definitely be one to watch too. It broke records last time with the lowest winning vote share ever in a GE, and is a three-way marginal at the moment, so Alasdair McDonnell could be in for the fight of his life. CatholicLeft Why do you think Ritchie is in danger? Her seat is technically 'safe', and the swing from the SDLP to SF doesn't seem too dramatic this time around. curiousliberal South Down Assembly election result 2nd March, 2017 turnout 66.2% (up 9.4% on GE in 2015) Sinn Fein: 19, 083 (38.7%) SDLP: 12, 443 (25.1%) That is going to take a lot of Unionist backing to overturn, even if some SF voters vote for Richie at the GE. Surely the massive discrepancy between the GE result in 2015 and the Assembly result just 2 years later is a directly result of Ritchie having a large personal vote? In a unionist/nationalist contest I appreciate this would matter much less, but could it make a difference in a nationalist/nationalist fight like this one?
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 8, 2017 0:05:43 GMT
curiousliberal South Down Assembly election result 2nd March, 2017 turnout 66.2% (up 9.4% on GE in 2015) Sinn Fein: 19, 083 (38.7%) SDLP: 12, 443 (25.1%) That is going to take a lot of Unionist backing to overturn, even if some SF voters vote for Richie at the GE. Surely the massive discrepancy between the GE result in 2015 and the Assembly result just 2 years later is a directly result of Ritchie having a large personal vote? In a unionist/nationalist contest I appreciate this would matter much less, but could it make a difference in a nationalist/nationalist fight like this one? Compare that to the previous Assembly Elections....I hope you are right, but doubt it.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 8, 2017 0:14:54 GMT
Surely the massive discrepancy between the GE result in 2015 and the Assembly result just 2 years later is a directly result of Ritchie having a large personal vote? In a unionist/nationalist contest I appreciate this would matter much less, but could it make a difference in a nationalist/nationalist fight like this one? Compare that to the previous Assembly Elections....I hope you are right, but doubt it. The swing to SF in recent Assembly Elections seems a bit puzzling to me, but I'll have to agree with you there - it does look worrying. It could be that there were also personal votes involved in the swing to SF at the assembly level. I might be clutching at straws here, but perhaps Hazzard and Ennis seemed to be a more effective team than the local SDLP duo at the Assembly level - in that case, we've already seen that Ritchie is 'ranked' above them as she's decisively beaten Hazzard before.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 18, 2017 11:30:51 GMT
LucidTalk September Poll for Assembly (changes with result in March 2017):
DUP - 35.5% (+7.4) SF - 31.2% (+3.3) UUP - 9.6% (-3.3) SDLP - 9.4% (-2.5) Alliance - 8.6% (-0.5) Greens - 1.7% (-0.6) PBP - 1.5% (-0.3) TUV - 1.3% (-1.2) PUP - 0.4% (-0.3)
On those numbers, the following could happen: Belfast East - DUP gain from UUP - Possible Belfast North - DUP gain from SDLP - Possible with better balancing Belfast South - DUP gain from Green - Very likely Belfast West - DUP gain from SF - Possible depending on turnout East Antrim - DUP gain from UUP - Very likely Fermanagh and South Tyrone - DUP gain from UUP - Very likely Lagan Valley - DUP gain from SDLP - Almost certain Mid Ulster - UUP gain from SDLP - Possible if DUP don't run 2nd candidate and transfer well Newry and Armagh - UUP gain from SF - Possible on DUP transfers West Tyrone - UUP gain from SDLP - Reasonably possibly assuming no 2nd DUP
DUP could gain from everybody, UUP may minimise losses thanks to DUP transfers, while SF are pretty much maxed out.
So, with caveats, the assembly would look something like this: DUP - 32 (+4) SF - 27 (nc) UUP - 8 (-2) SDLP - 11 (-1) Alliance - 8 (nc) Greens - 1 (-1) TUV - 1 (nc) PBP - 1 (nc) Ind Unionist - 1 (nc)
Can they hurry up with direct rule đ
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 24, 2017 9:56:33 GMT
LucidTalk poll due tomorrow. I shall not get my hopes up...
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Oct 26, 2017 9:01:41 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 26, 2017 10:23:57 GMT
How does that compare with previous surveys?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2017 10:42:34 GMT
Wasnt the last border poll almost unanimous in favour the uk
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 26, 2017 10:44:10 GMT
Yes, but only because the "nationalist" community boycotted it en masse. So pretty meaningless in that sense.
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Post by afleitch on Oct 26, 2017 19:35:24 GMT
Not a bad start actually, if there was a campaign.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2017 19:40:22 GMT
Probably a better base than for scottish independence
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 26, 2017 21:06:44 GMT
Yes, but only because the "nationalist" community boycotted it en masse. So pretty meaningless in that sense. They boycotted as they knew they would loose, as the Tories are with opposition motions at the minute. It was still a clear mandate for the union, don't be fooled by nationalist tricks. It was 1973; things have changed quite dramatically. As for "nationalist tricks", it was the calling of the poll at such a time that was foolhardy. @benji, it was before you were born and in a different time and called by the political leaders of the majority community within a gerrymandered state. To suggest that the courageous Gerry Fitt, who led the Nationalist boycott of the poll, was indulging in tricks is to malign a remarkable figure.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2017 21:08:57 GMT
Yeah Gerry Fitt was pretty remarkable and shouldnt be dismissed
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 26, 2017 21:33:27 GMT
Not a bad start actually, if there was a campaign. Apart from, somehow, I doubt the Northern Irish will be quite as elastic as the Scots ...
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Post by An Sionnach FlannbhuĂ on Oct 26, 2017 21:40:21 GMT
They boycotted as they knew they would loose, as the Tories are with opposition motions at the minute. It was still a clear mandate for the union, don't be fooled by nationalist tricks. It was 1973; things have changed quite dramatically. As for "nationalist tricks", it was the calling of the poll at such a time that was foolhardy. @benji, it was before you were born and in a different time and called by the political leaders of the majority community within a gerrymandered state. To suggest that the courageous Gerry Fitt, who led the Nationalist boycott of the poll, was indulging in tricks is to malign a remarkable figure. I suspect the "trick" referred to is those who try to delegitimise the 1973 poll today by reference to the nationalist boycott, rather than a reference to Gerry Fitt. The "remain" vote was still 57% of the registered electorate, so "remain" plainly won regardless of turnout. So assertions that the vote was "pretty meaningless" can't go unchallenged.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 26, 2017 21:54:35 GMT
It was 1973; things have changed quite dramatically. As for "nationalist tricks", it was the calling of the poll at such a time that was foolhardy. @benji, it was before you were born and in a different time and called by the political leaders of the majority community within a gerrymandered state. To suggest that the courageous Gerry Fitt, who led the Nationalist boycott of the poll, was indulging in tricks is to malign a remarkable figure. I suspect the "trick" referred to is those who try to delegitimise the 1973 poll today by reference to the nationalist boycott, rather than a reference to Gerry Fitt. The "remain" vote was still 57% of the registered electorate, so "remain" plainly won regardless of turnout. So assertions that the vote was "pretty meaningless" can't go unchallenged. To be fair to The Bishop on this occassion, I think he was merely saying that making comparisons between the % for "remain" in that poll and that in the opinion poll cited are meaningless, hence 'meaningless in that sense' rather than saying the outcome of the 1973 poll was meaningless
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Post by An Sionnach FlannbhuĂ on Oct 26, 2017 22:09:35 GMT
I suspect the "trick" referred to is those who try to delegitimise the 1973 poll today by reference to the nationalist boycott, rather than a reference to Gerry Fitt. The "remain" vote was still 57% of the registered electorate, so "remain" plainly won regardless of turnout. So assertions that the vote was "pretty meaningless" can't go unchallenged. To be fair to The Bishop on this occassion, I think he was merely saying that making comparisons between the % for "remain" in that poll and that in the opinion poll cited are meaningless, hence 'meaningless in that sense' rather than saying the outcome of the 1973 poll was meaningless Yes, it is meaningless to say it was a 98% vote in 1973 and has fallen to (less than 98%) since.
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Dec 7, 2017 17:49:05 GMT
Northern Irish Unionism
For whom the bell tolls The bell tolls for thee:
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