Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 28, 2017 13:35:58 GMT
Changes from 2015: DUP +3.1% SF +3.4% UUP -0.2% SDLP -0.2% APNI +1.2% Freely admit my knowledge of Northern Ireland politics is next to non existent. Whats the chances the DUP end up as the 4th biggest parliamentary party ? The best case scenario for the DUP is that they win 10 seats. That involves gaining South Antrim from the UUP and Belfast South from the SDLP, both of which I consider unlikely, as well as holding all 8 of their existing seats which I think they will but is far from certain. So if you think that the Lib Dems are going to stay at 8 MPs, or even suffer a net loss, it is a possibility. Personally I expect the Lib Dems to make modest net gains.
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
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Post by goose on Jun 4, 2017 13:46:22 GMT
LucidTalk poll due tomorrow apparently.
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
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Post by goose on Jun 4, 2017 14:17:30 GMT
LucidTalk poll due tomorrow apparently. The big one. Will be interesting to see if the UUP and SDLP hold up or slip back. Really hoping UUP can hold the two they've got and sneak in Upper Bann while they're at it.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2017 14:30:54 GMT
Completely agree, I am worried about F&T, hope the unionists can mobilise their vote like the Republicans did in the last elections.
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
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Post by goose on Jun 4, 2017 14:43:23 GMT
Really hoping UUP can hold the two they've got and sneak in Upper Bann while they're at it. The more the merrier, though I'll be happy if they can retain Fermanagh & South Tyrone and absolutely delighted if the DUP can sneak Belfast South. Is there any specific reason why the Conservatives and the UUP do not have a closer relationship? Conservative money could definitely help UUP performance and help to normalise the politics of Ulster.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2017 14:46:27 GMT
The more the merrier, though I'll be happy if they can retain Fermanagh & South Tyrone and absolutely delighted if the DUP can sneak Belfast South. Is there any specific reason why the Conservatives and the UUP do not have a closer relationship? Conservative money could definitely help UUP performance and help to normalise the politics of Ulster. Ulster Unionists used to take the Conservative whip, but differences over the governance of Northern Ireland in the 1970s put an end to the institutional relationship between the two parties.
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
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Post by goose on Jun 4, 2017 14:49:33 GMT
Is there any specific reason why the Conservatives and the UUP do not have a closer relationship? Conservative money could definitely help UUP performance and help to normalise the politics of Ulster. I believe that the UUP joined up with the Conservatives on a joint ticket in 2010 when the party lost its only MP in North Down who is now an Independent. That ended any formal arrangements between the two parties with regards to standing candidates in Northern Ireland. Just seems a bit silly to stand seperate candidates when the two parties seem so similar.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2017 14:58:40 GMT
Just seems a bit silly to stand seperate candidates when the two parties seem so similar. It seems a bit silly to me to have two unionist parties in Northern Ireland and not one, but Northern Irish politics in general are very silly. The UUP and DUP have rather different approaches to "unionism" as well as different voter bases.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
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Post by jamie on Jun 4, 2017 15:01:31 GMT
The UUP are definitely to the left (insofar as they have a non-constitutional philosophy) of the Conservatives and many of their politicians would be at home in the Lib Dems or even non-Corbynite's Labour. Why would they merge with the Conservatives when they have a significantly better brand and it clearly didn't work last time?
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,240
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 4, 2017 16:43:29 GMT
ntyuk1707, this shows a real ignorance of the UUP's history, which had a strong labour base at one time. Several senior UUP politicians were Labour men at heart, not least the late and lamented Harold McCusker, Michael McGimpsey (former MLA and Minister), Chris McGimpsey, Sylvia Hermon (who left the UUP over the UCUNF farrago), Fred Cobain (former MLA and in the DUP since 2013). To swallow the Tory shilling who!e would be the final nail in the coffin for the UUP, which has lost most of its working class support to the DUP already.
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
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Post by goose on Jun 5, 2017 18:48:07 GMT
DUP 28.9 SF 28.1 SDLP 13.8 UUP 15.4 APNI 9.9 TUV 0.1 Green 0.6 Conservative 0.2 PBP 0.6 Others 2.4
June 2017 LucidTalk
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Jun 5, 2017 20:18:56 GMT
DUP 28.9 (+3.2) SF 28.1 (+3.6) SDLP 13.8 (-0.1) UUP 15.4 (-0.6) APNI 9.9 (+1.3) TUV 0.1 (-1.2) Green 0.6 (-0.4) Conservative 0.2 (-1.1) PBP 0.6 (+0.6) Others 2.4 June 2017 LucidTalk Changes from the last GE in parentheses.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,054
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Post by cogload on Jun 5, 2017 20:53:30 GMT
There is only one way this is heading and it aint good for Unionists.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 5, 2017 21:52:58 GMT
There is only one way this is heading and it aint good for Unionists. It isn't good for moderates, either. With the exception of the Alliance Party, they're all falling back to the nutters in the DUP, SF and PBP.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 7, 2017 9:17:48 GMT
Lucidtalk have issued seat projections - they are basically predicting only one seat will change: SF gain Fermanagh and South Tyrone from UU.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,240
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 7, 2017 9:24:33 GMT
Not sure about this, as I think Sinn Fein really are breathing down Margaret Richie's neck in South Down.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 7, 2017 9:28:53 GMT
Lucidtalk have issued seat projections - they are basically predicting only one seat will change: SF gain Fermanagh and South Tyrone from UU. IIRC, that's what they predicted in their last projection - so, assuming this projections are correct, we're heading for quite a dull election in Northern Ireland in terms of seat changes. It looks like the magic number will be 321 seats once Sinn Fein, the Speaker and Deputy Speakers are taken into account.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 7, 2017 9:34:05 GMT
LucidTalk Forecast: North Antrim - DUP 100% East Antrim - DUP 100% Belfast West - SF 100% North Down - Ind 100% Mid-Ulster - SF 100% West Tyrone - SF 100% East Londonderry - DUP 100% Lagan Valley - DUP 100% Strangford - DUP 100% Newry & Armagh - SF 100% (otherwise UUP or SDLP) Belfast North - DUP 80% (otherwise SF) Upper Bann - DUP 80% (otherwise UUP or SF) Foyle - SDLP 75% (otherwise SF) Belfast South - SDLP 60% (otherwise DUP) South Antirm - UUP 55% (otherwise DUP) Belfast East - DUP 55% (otherwise Alliance) Fermanagh & South Tyrone - SF 55% (otherwise UUP) South Down - SDLP 55% (otherwise SF)
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 7, 2017 9:47:39 GMT
Ideally, the DUP could be pushed down to 6 and SF to 3 (with the UUP on 4 + Hermon, the SDLP on 2, and Alliance on 2). This assumes a marginal swing (<5%) to a 'moderate' challenger, which is simply not feasible in most constituencies in NI, but Belfast East could deliver a surprise with the return of the UUP to that constituency, and Belfast South will definitely be one to watch too. It broke records last time with the lowest winning vote share ever in a GE, and is a three-way marginal at the moment, so Alasdair McDonnell could be in for the fight of his life. CatholicLeft Why do you think Ritchie is in danger? Her seat is technically 'safe', and the swing from the SDLP to SF doesn't seem too dramatic this time around.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,702
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Post by iain on Jun 7, 2017 9:59:52 GMT
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