|
Post by Devonian on Jun 16, 2013 19:50:20 GMT
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,261
|
Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2013 20:04:27 GMT
These are voting intentions for Stormont, not Westminster - changes since 2011: DUP +1.4% SF +1.7% UUP -1.9% SDLP - 1.4% Alliance + 3.2% Green +2.9% TUV +0.8% Good news for the Alliance. They only prompted for those parties who won seats last time - would be interesting to see what would have happened if UKIP had been prompted for.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2013 20:56:39 GMT
These are voting intentions for Stormont, not Westminster - changes since 2011: DUP +1.4% SF +1.7% UUP -1.9% SDLP - 1.4% Alliance + 3.2% Green +2.9% TUV +0.8% Good news for the Alliance. They only prompted for those parties who won seats last time - would be interesting to see what would have happened if UKIP had been prompted for. Do they have any kind of a record? Although they're a member of the BPC which is something at least.
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Jun 16, 2013 22:06:02 GMT
These are voting intentions for Stormont, not Westminster Quite right. I should have mentioned that in my post. Corrected.
|
|
|
Post by erlend on Jun 16, 2013 22:37:29 GMT
The question on a border poll was interesting. 4% of Protestants voted for united Ireland within 20 years. But 40% of Catholics (who voted) said no to that. A lot of them must vote SF. And I am sure that the Shinners know that.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,525
|
Post by john07 on Jun 17, 2013 0:47:00 GMT
DUP +1.4% SF +1.7% UUP -1.9% SDLP -1.4% Alliance +3.2% Green +2.9% TUV +0.8% Are those changes based on percentage of the electorate or percentage of their previous vote? I am rather confused. Something does not seem right. Add that up and you end up with +6.7%. Where have the extra votes come from?
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Jun 17, 2013 2:28:16 GMT
The question on a border poll was interesting. 4% of Protestants voted for united Ireland within 20 years. But 40% of Catholics (who voted) said no to that. A lot of them must vote SF. And I am sure that the Shinners know that. This isn't even an open secret. Remember that even the terms "Unionist" and "Nationalist" do not in NI mean quite what they mean outside it.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 17, 2013 9:55:17 GMT
It says everything that the fact this poll puts the UUP within a whisker of falling into FIFTH place has not been commented on yet.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,261
|
Post by Tony Otim on Jun 17, 2013 9:57:21 GMT
DUP +1.4% SF +1.7% UUP -1.9% SDLP -1.4% Alliance +3.2% Green +2.9% TUV +0.8% Are those changes based on percentage of the electorate or percentage of their previous vote? I am rather confused. Something does not seem right. Add that up and you end up with +6.7%. Where have the extra votes come from? Changes are based on 1st preference vote from 2011 - but your question made me check and they've lumped won't vote together with others as an option, so there's no percentage for unprompted parties/independants - hence the anomaly, so in reality all the figures are likely to be down a bit.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,261
|
Post by Tony Otim on Jun 17, 2013 11:09:09 GMT
Changes are based on 1st preference vote from 2011 - but your question made me check and they've lumped won't vote together with others as an option, so there's no percentage for unprompted parties/independants - hence the anomaly, so in reality all the figures are likely to be down a bit. Both wikipedia and BBC websites seem to have percentage figures which don't quite match the votes given for 2011 I've done a bit of playing around - assuming a similar turnout to 2011, this poll would give: (with changes from my calculations of 2011 percentages): DUP 29.6 (-1.0) SF 27.0 (-0.5) SDLP 12.1 (-2.4) UUP 10.6 (-2.9) All 10.5 (+2.7) Grn 3.5 (+2.6) TUV 3.1 (+0.5) Oth 3.7 (+1.0)
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Jun 17, 2013 13:15:07 GMT
Traditionally six county opinion polls have underestimated both SF and the DUP as they have been seen as extremists and then provided different results on election day.
I never heard of this company before I must say. There were some interesting results regarding attitudes to the Police. When asked "If a close relative wanted to join the PSNI would you encourage them?" 25% said yes, 10% said no and 65% refused to respond. Protestants had a 64% refusal rate and Catholics a 77% rate while the corresponding yes rates were 32% and 10%.
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Sept 17, 2013 13:31:42 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2013 0:04:32 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Jun 8, 2014 6:35:39 GMT
bump
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 2, 2017 22:31:39 GMT
Tories at least 28% behind in latest opinion poll:
twitter.com/UlsterElects/status/859526839022354432
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 2, 2017 22:36:09 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 2, 2017 23:50:49 GMT
That was my attempt at a joke. As usual it fell flat.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on May 22, 2017 12:55:44 GMT
Not a new poll, but i've just noticed how few 'other' Unionists are standing. The Conservatives are down from 16 to 7, TUV are down from 10 to 1, and UKIP are down from 10 to 0. Collectively, these parties got 6.2% between them. I imagine their absence will help the DUP and to a lesser extent the UUP outperform their polls. However, their previous votes are largely concentrated in safe Unionist seats so their absences' impact on actual seats will be marginal at best.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,693
|
Post by iain on May 28, 2017 10:48:17 GMT
Changes from 2015: DUP +3.1% SF +3.4% UUP -0.2% SDLP -0.2% APNI +1.2%
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,693
|
Post by iain on May 28, 2017 13:31:26 GMT
The maximum the DUP will win is 10. Of these possibles, probably 5 are safe.
Defence: Upper Bann Belfast East Belfast North
Targets: Belfast South South Antrim
|
|