Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 5, 2012 17:08:50 GMT
Indeed it is and I was going to draw attention to the fact. It is of course within a margin of error since the results following redistribution of postal votes are in effect speculative - its therefore possible Labour carried the seat on both list and constituency vote. Nevertheless, given how close it is it does illustrate that this is more of a Conservative seat than the 2010 result gives credit for which is partly a credit to Karen Buck, partly an indictment of the silly woman who was Tory candidate (whose name momentarily escapes me) and of course does also reflect somewhat I suppose the better ability of the Tories to get their vote out in Westminster (as in Wandsworth) in local than national elections
Southfield is indeed potentially better for the Tories (i.e. richer) than any wards in the existing Hammersmith seat. However, it is a Lib Dem stronghold at local council level and they would have polled well there at the 2010 GE as well, so the Tories will have to work hard for the votes of their coalition partners. Boris got them for mayor but it may be more difficult in other elections. In the constituency and list sections Labour won the new Hammersmith and Acton seat more comfortably than the old Hammersmith one so while the new seat will still be marginal it is unlikely to be an easy one for the Tories to gain.