Post by swanarcadian on Sept 24, 2013 21:21:58 GMT
As regards the Campsie and Kirkintilloch North by-election, the swing is somewhat exaggerated due to the extremely high polling independent candidate in 2012, ironically named Charles Kennedy. Every single party's vote share was up, although admittedly the Lib Dems were up the most. Maybe Lib Dem voters were mixing up their Charles Kennedys?
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 24, 2013 21:42:32 GMT
Yes, the Lib Dem vote in the ward was only 9.6% in 2007, which strongly implies that a lot of their national support backed the independent locally. When he was gone, it was natural that some of it would return to them. Particulary as the local Lib Dems were hardly obliterated in 2012. That said, I suspect that at least some of the by-election increase was real.
On the back of the last Scottish Poll, the LDs would hold this on UNS (with 5% of the vote) The constituency has had 4 MPs of different parties in consecutive elections (where it existed) 1974 - Con 1974 - SNP 1979 - Lab 2005 - LD
Post by countrylooninthetoon on Dec 16, 2014 18:42:56 GMT
Will be between Labour and SNP.
National swing will be Jo Swinson's undoing, even if she has a personal vote as her vote share was below 40%. At the East Dunbartonshire Council Election, SNP and Labour both increased their vote with Labour just ahead. The Strathkelvin & Bearsden + Clydebank & Milngavie seats, which take in parts of East Dunbartonshire, are both represented at Holyrood by SNP. Based on 2010 vote shares, Labour would be pretty disappointed not to gain this seat and only need a swing of 2.3% to do it.
Unusual seat in that it has been represented by each of the four main political parties in Scotland at some stage. However, the dead don't vote.
Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, but Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
According to Oddschecker, this is turning into something of a Watford with three parties in contention but the favourites (SNP) not even at evens to win. Ladbrokes: SNP 5/4, LD 2/1, Lab 9/4 PP: SNP 5/4, Lab 6/4, LD 9/4 A poll here would be very interesting indeed.