Bristol West Dec 21, 2014 17:32:22 GMT
Post by froome on Dec 21, 2014 17:32:22 GMT
Greens now second on a predicted 29% to Labour on 32% - is this based on a shift in the opinion polls?
but it is even more significant than iain claims - he said it was insignificant. Is that a superfluous "even". ?
Hopefully for finsobruce this will be a simpler explanation.
If you add up all the votes for each party in the two Bristol West wards that had local elections this year, and add them to all the votes for each party in the other 6 wards which had their last elections last year, then the Greens come top, just ahead of Labour.
The changes to the constituency were that it lost 3 wards to Bristol North West, which included two that have always had enormous Conservative majorities, and gained two wards from Bristol East, which were both traditionally Labour/Lib Dem marginals (in one of these the Green Party beat the Lib Dems last time round). However, that is not the only reason why the Conservatives are now uncompetitive here. They used to be able to rely on a large vote in the very middle-class wards like Redland, Bishopston, Cotham and especially the Clifton wards, but that has seriously ebbed away over the years, even when the seat was winnable for them.