This was a Labour Gain before the Diaster of 1997 and only the Clegg Surge permitted a Conservative gain in 2010. With a LD collapse and UKIP taking say 2:1 from the Conservatives it looks a very easy solid Labour gain to me.
This is one of those seats in or near Merseyside which swung slightly to Labour in 1983. The notional Tory majority of 7,235 was reduced to 6,465. Mark Carlisle was the MP at the time, having previously represented Runcorn.