When you say notional result? We've actually got the ward breakdowns for the Euros . . . is that what you used?
No - if I had that I suppose it would not be 'notional' but would be an actucal result. This is based on the usual methodology of assigning the voting figures from the level at which they are declared (borough in this case) to smaller sub-divisions (wards) based on local election voting patterns.
Your statement does rather beg the question of why you haven't published these details on this site (apologies if you already have)
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 14, 2014 16:14:10 GMT
Perhaps, since my constituency notionals are constructed from ward notionals, I should post up my ward notionals for Merton and see how they compare with the actualité While its fun to construct these notionals it would be far better to have the real thing everywhere. This is going to be an important function of the Psephological Society, to lobby for counting at ward (and polling district) level
Post by David Boothroyd on Aug 14, 2014 23:52:29 GMT
Because, although the results had to be declared at authority level, there was nothing in the regulations to stop returning officers counting at a lower level and making the figures known. Especially in London and the Mets it may have been perfectly convenient to do so, because of the simultaneous local elections.
Socialism makes war upon a system, not upon a class
My figures are slightly different to the figures that I has supplied though broadly similar.
Lower Morden was a pretty remarkable result given that the Conservatives were polling 62% in a council election as recently as 2006. Their vote has gone into rapid decline at an incredibly fast rate with Labour topping the poll here when it didn't even manage it in any if the GLA elections. It also had a 16.5% swing to Labour at the council election which was on top of a 9% swing in 2010. Only Gipsy Hill in Lambeth has recorded a higher swing over two elections.Tory vote here has pretty much gone into meltdown as the council result was equally as bad with similar shares of the vote along them winning no seats for the first time in a council election - and not even coming close.
My figures were not too far out in most cases. Out of 60 separate figures, mine are within 1% in 25 and greater than 3% in only 9. My worst 'fault' was 6 on the Labour share in Figge's Marsh and the second worst 5 on the Green share in Cricket Green though in reality this was a far worse error as it is actually the difference between 9.4% on my figures and 4.4% in reality which is huge. I'm not sure how this came about as my 9.4% looks counterintuitive for that ward. The average 'fault' for all 60 figures is 1.7. The average total faults for the wards was 10.2 with my best result being in Graveney (4.7) and my worst Figge's Marsh (17.2). ALl the other wards had faults close to the average (between 8 and 12.5)
Lower Morden was a pretty remarkable result given that the Conservatives were polling 62% in a council election as recently as 2006. Their vote has gone into rapid decline at an incredibly fast rate with Labour topping the poll here when it didn't even manage it in any if the GLA elections.
I think it will have had something to do with the large UKIP vote in this ward; 2 years of an active UKIP councillor - who I suspect was the most active Tory in the ward (when he was a Tory).