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Post by mattbewilson on May 5, 2024 11:44:45 GMT
As has been commented elsewhere the change in the voting system has really saved the Conservatives in these contests. They have held 17 so far, with probably 2 more wins to come, and of those 17 wins, the winning margin is less than 5% in 9 of them, and only more than 10% in 3. It’s a bit like the 1994 Euro elections. didn't labour get something like 60% of seats or something in 1994
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 11:48:02 GMT
As has been commented elsewhere the change in the voting system has really saved the Conservatives in these contests. They have held 17 so far, with probably 2 more wins to come, and of those 17 wins, the winning margin is less than 5% in 9 of them, and only more than 10% in 3. It’s a bit like the 1994 Euro elections. didn't labour get something like 60% of seats or something in 1994 More than 60% . It was Lab 62 Con 18 Others 7, but a fraction more swing would have reduced the Cons from 18 to 4 or 5.
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Post by johnloony on May 5, 2024 12:13:42 GMT
As has been commented elsewhere the change in the voting system has really saved the Conservatives in these contests. They have held 17 so far, with probably 2 more wins to come, and of those 17 wins, the winning margin is less than 5% in 9 of them, and only more than 10% in 3. It’s a bit like the 1994 Euro elections. didn't labour get something like 60% of seats or something in 1994 The point about the 1994 European elections is that the Conservative Party ended up with 18 seats (and the Lib Dems 2), despite the deep unpopularity of the Conservative Party at the time. Or, in other words, despite the slightly hysterical and excitable predictions that some people made beforehand that the Conservatives would be wiped out and that the Lib Dems would sweep across the whole of the south-west and beyond.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on May 5, 2024 13:59:29 GMT
And the point made just above is that it was very close to happening - small further swings would have reduced the number of Tory MEPs to one third of their actual number, at which point some sort of challenge to Major's leadership would have been distinctly possible. The parallels with this week's PCC elections are pretty obvious.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 5, 2024 15:48:05 GMT
Are Katy Bourne (Sussex) and Tim Passmore (Suffolk) the only ones who have served continuously since 2012 and were re-elected this week?
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Post by mattbewilson on May 5, 2024 17:15:16 GMT
So what we're saying is, that 2024 PCCs was almost as bad as 1994 Euros in the same way the 1994 euros were almost as bad as they could have been
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Post by uthacalthing on May 5, 2024 20:09:49 GMT
Despite a ham-fisted idea, Mayors are beginning to become a fixture as the personalities of those involved gain public recognition. Even the Tories losing West Midlands was a story about Andy Street.
is there any evidence of PCCs becoming notable in public consciousness?
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Post by batman on May 5, 2024 20:50:19 GMT
The defeat of the Tories in the Northants PCC election could well be at least partially because the incumbent was indeed notable in public consciousness.
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Post by jm on May 6, 2024 14:51:33 GMT
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Post by uthacalthing on May 6, 2024 20:22:08 GMT
The defeat of the Tories in the Northants PCC election could well be at least partially because the incumbent was indeed notable in public consciousness. You may be correct. But you know this was not what I meant.
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Post by mattbewilson on May 6, 2024 22:57:03 GMT
There's a couple of people but I think they're probably better known in Labour circles than anything.
Baron Willy Bach - Leicestershire
I believe was previously a government minister
Paddy Tipping - Nottinghamshire
MP for Sherwood 1997-2010
Alan Billings - South Yorkshire
Blunkett's Deputy through the rates rebellion.
Clare Moody - Avon and Somerset
Former MEP
Then there's people who didn't make it:
John Prescott - Humberside
Deputy PM 1997-2007
Rory Palmer - Leicestershire
Former MEP
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Post by uthacalthing on May 7, 2024 9:00:22 GMT
However what I was wondering, and failed to make clear, was whether any PCC has made a sufficient mark in that office to overcome a universal national swing against his party or to significantly outperform a UNS in favour of his party
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 7, 2024 10:45:30 GMT
Essex and Merseyside still haven't been updated since the election, btw.
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Post by uthacalthing on May 7, 2024 10:59:59 GMT
Merseyside hasn't been updated since Thatcher left office
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on May 7, 2024 13:24:28 GMT
Essex and Merseyside still haven't been updated since the election, btw. No, it seem not. Perhaps you could take a quick look at let us know what happened?
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Post by jm on May 8, 2024 11:34:25 GMT
I have now collated results for every council area except those listed below. I may need to contact the respective ROs unless anyone here has been able to find them... Cheshire Cheshire East WarringtonCumbria (all) Cumberland Westmorland and FurnessDerbyshireBolsover DerbyHigh Peak North East Derbyshire South DerbyshireDyfed-Powys Ceredigion PowysEssexBrentwood Castle Point Rochford ThurrockHertfordshireDacorum East Hertfordshire KentMaidstone ThanetTonbridge and Malling Lancashire Preston Rossendale WyreLincolnshireEast LindseyNorth Wales (all)
South Wales (all)
StaffordshireSouth Staffordshire Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke-on-Trent WarwickshireNuneaton and BedworthRugby
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on May 8, 2024 13:12:18 GMT
Nuneaton and bedworth
Ld 3278 Lab 12360 Con 11485
Rugby
Ld 5491 Lab 11667 Cons 9599
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 8, 2024 18:29:39 GMT
Ceredigion: Plaid 7,146, Con 1,791, Lab 1,716, Lib Dem 1,307 Powys: Con 6,565, Plaid 4,795, Lab 3,856, Lib Dem 3,172
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 8, 2024 20:00:15 GMT
| Conwy | Denbighshire | Flintshire | Gwynedd | Wrexham | Ynys Mon | Labour | 5650 | 5017 | 8271 | 3892 | 6330 | 2790 | Plaid | 3198 | 2173 | 2093 | 9058 | 2809 | 4135 | Con | 5955 | 5473 | 5722 | 2330 | 3997 | 2804 | Lib Dem | 982 | 806 | 2869 | 657 | 1398 | 417 |
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Post by batman on May 8, 2024 21:08:08 GMT
it's a bit surprising on the face of it that the Tories should be ahead of Labour in Denbighshire, Anglesey & Conwy, but behind them in Gwynedd. But then, Gwynedd is not very good for the Tories even though it's not exactly great for Labour either
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