Prediction Competition - April 2024

[robbienicoll]

There are currently 10 by-elections to be held during April.

- 3 by-elections on 4 April
- 2 on 11 April
- 1 on 16 April (a Tuesday)
- 2 on 18 April
- 2 on 25 April

3 by-elections are for unitary authorities, 1 last contested in 2022 and 2 in 2021
3 are for district councils, all last contested in 2023
2 are for Welsh councils, both last contested in 2022
2 are for Scottish councils, both last contested in 2022

Liberal Democrats defend 4 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent
Independents defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor, 1 a resignation and 1 a disqualification
Conservatives defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor
Labour defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor
Farnham Residents defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 10 Conservative candidates, 9 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrats, 3 Greens, 2 SNP and 2 Scottish Greens along with 1 apiece for Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, Alba, Sovereignty, Propel and Farnham Residents together with 6 Independents and 2 No Description contesting 5 elections – a total of 48 candidates for 10 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[Tony Otim]

Cornwall: LD 59.8; Con 22.1; Lab 10.4; Grn 7.7
North Northants: Con 44.6; Lab 39.6; LD 11.4; Grn 4.4
Wealden: Lab 40.7; French 34.7; Con 24.6

[johnloony]

Cornwall: LD 61 Con 27 Lab 7 Grn 5
North Northampton: Lab 40 Con 39 LD 12 Grn 9
Wealden: Lab 44 Con 32 Ind 24

[batman]

CORNWALL, Looe W., Pelynt, Lansallos & Lanteglos : LD 67 C 22 Green 6 Lab 5

N.NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Desborough : Lab 48 C 39 LD 7 Green 6

WEALDEN, Uckfield New Town : Lab 42 C 40 Ind 18

[Pete Whitehead]

I guess Uckfield really is as much of a 'dump' as Tim Jones always used to claim then

[batman]

It really isn't a dump.

[kevinf]

Cornwall
LD 65, Con 21, Green 9, Lab 5
North Northants
Con 40, Lab 35, LD 15, Green 10
Wealden
Lab 38, Ind 33, Con 29

[carolus]

Apr 3, 2024 14:04:15 GMT batman said:

It really isn't a dump.

So many towns that are far worse, even within East Sussex. Uckfield is fine, if unremarkable.

[batman]

it's certainly nicer than Hailsham. I've visited both as part of the Harveys Hop. I have a friend who has recently moved to Uckfield & plan to visit ere long. I suspect that she will vote Labour tomorrow

[corradino]

Cornwall, Looe West etc: LD 60, Con 26, Lab 7, Green 7.

North Northants, Desborough: Lab 38, Con 37, Lad 11, Green 10.

Wealden, Uckfield New Town: Lab 35.5, Ind 34.5. Con 30.

[corradino]

Correction

North Northants, Desborough: should read LD 15, not "Lad 11"

[johnloony]

Apr 3, 2024 20:56:28 GMT corradino said:

Correction

North Northants, Desborough: should read LD 15, not "Lad 11"

Are you aware that you can just edit the original post instead of doing a correction separately?

[andrewp]

Cornwall. LD 61 Con 25 Lab 8 Green 6
North Northants. Lab 42 Con 41 LD 9 Green 8
Wealden. Ind 39 Lab 37 Con 24

[carolus]

Cornwall, Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos & Lantegos:
LD 62, Con 28, Lab 5, Green 5

North Northamptonshire, Desborough:
Lab 40, Con 35, LD 15, Green 10

Wealden, Uckfield New Town:
Lab 40, Ind 35, Con 25

[Robert Waller]

Cornwall. LD 60 Con 25 Lab 7 Green 8

North Northants. Lab 40 Con 43 LD 10 Green 7

Wealden. Ind 35 Lab 39 Con 26

[manchesterman]

Cornwall. LD 63, Con 27, Lab 5, Green 5

North Northants. Lab 45, Con 40, LD 10, Green 5

Wealden. Ind 36, Lab 36, Con 28 (Ind win by 1 vote)

[peterl]

CORNWALL, Looe W., Pelynt, Lansallos & Lanteglos : LD 62 C 25 Green 8 Lab 5

N.NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Desborough : Lab 45 C 38 LD 10 Green 7

WEALDEN, Uckfield New Town : Ind 35, Lab 34, C 31

[rightleaning]

CORNWALL, Looe W., Pelynt, Lansallos & Lanteglos : LD 63, C 24, Green 10, Lab 3
N.NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Desborough : Lab 41, C 40, LD 13, Green 6
WEALDEN, Uckfield New Town : Ind 38, Lab 34, C 28

[robbienicoll]

I'm away on holiday until Sunday so won't be able to report the scores until then (hopefully I'll be up to it then - it is a stag do!).

[iainbhx]

CORNWALL UA, Looe W., Pelynt, Lansallos & Lanteglos : LDm 52 Con 34 Lab 10 Grn 4

NORTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE UA, Desborough: Lab 42 Con 40 LDm 12 Grn 6

WEALDEN DC, Uckfield New Town: Lab 40, Ind 35, Con 25