My own guestimate is 49 Lab-UKIP 2.The only 'elephant in the room' is how the white vote breaks down.Remember last time it was really Labour or BNP, with a massive 'Hope not Hate' campaign and national media attention.Now the question is: is UKIP a more respectable protest vote ? (which for all its faults it obviously is) which means that it, potentially, can poll strongly in the centre and east of the borough,enough to gain seats.
Agree with Chadwell Heath.That was one of my two UKIP seats.My other one was Mayesbrook where Dee Hunt the UKIP Group Leader has her seat.Eastbury is more ethnically mixed than you think.Village has a high residual Tory vote by Dagenham standards, but it is never more than 30% ish.
6 May 2010 Lab 51 Now Lab 41, UKIP 4, Socialist Labour Party 3, Ind 1, Con 1, Vacant 1
8 July 2010 – Goresbrook – Lab hold Louise Couling (Lab) elected Caused by the resignation of Louise Couling (Lab), since she was not eligible to stand in the election on 6 May 2010, because she was employed by the Council as a lollipop lady at the time she was nominated. She resigned her job on polling day.
On 14 October 2011, it was reported that London Labour had cancelled the membership of Ralph Baldwin (Mayesbrook), claiming he had admitted to campaigning actively for the Conservatives. He denied the claim.
On 7 January 2012, it was reported that the Labour Party expelled George Barratt (Mayesbrook), for refusing to vote for cuts. He had previously resigned from the Labour Group, saying publicly that he could not support the £20 million cuts package. The Barking and Dagenham website shows him as an Independent.
12 April 2012 – Goresbrook – Lab hold Simon Bremner (Lab) elected Caused by the resignation of Louise Couling (Lab), who had not attended a designated council meeting for nearly a year.
On 15 May 2012, Ralph Baldwin (Mayesbrook) announced that he had joined the Conservative Party. He said, “I will never forget the “control” and delusion of absolute Power of the Labour Leadership and their Council Leader here that has destroyed their party and made it little more than a self-serving twisted club for a few families, a true sign of decline and depravity”.
9 May 2013 – Longbridge – Lab hold Syed Ahammad (Lab) elected Caused by the death of Nirmal Singh Gill (Lab), who died after chairing a meeting.
On 17 September 2013, it was reported that Robert Douglas (Becontree) had defected from Labour to UKIP, because Labour no longer represented the interests of ordinary working people. He believed we need strong controls on immigration. He had failed a re-selection interview in June.
On 10 December 2013, it was reported that Dee Hunt (Mayesbrook) had defected from Labour to UKIP, saying she had felt adrift from the Labour Party for some time. She had been deselected.
On 13 January 2014, it was reported that Graham Letchford (Goresbrook) had defected from Labour to UKIP, saying he was drawn to the party’s stance against open border immigration within the EU.
On 27 February 2014, it was reported that Jim McDermott (Eastbury) had defected from Labour to Arthur Scargill’s Socialist Labour Party, claiming “loyal” members were being replaced to “take the party on a different political path”.
On 14 March 2014, it was reported that Tariq Saeed (Lab) (Abbey) had joined UKIP, after announcing his departure from the Labour Party.
On 17 March 2014, it was reported that Barry Poulton (Lab) (Thames) had joined the Socialist Labour Party, after announcing his departure from the Labour Party. He said, “I have the largest casework workload of any Councillor in the borough. I get a great deal of satisfaction from my work as a Councllor and could not let all the work I have put in over many years go to waste. Hence one of the reasons in making my decision to join the Socialist Labour Party.”
On 2 April 2014, it was reported that George Vincent (Lab) (Heath) had joined the Socialist Labour Party.
On 15 April 2014, it was reported that Tony Perry (Lab) (Whalebone) had passed away following a long illness, leaving an unfilled vacancy.