Think that you may be way off the mark regarding UKIP.The Tories best wards are Eastbrook,Chadwell Heath and Whalebone, but they have no realistic chance of gaining any of them.The recent local by election in Longbridge Ward, formerly the only reliably Tory seats is indicative:
The Labour Party Candidate. Votes cast = 1,555. ELECTED
The Conservative Party Candidate. Votes cast = 284
Bedwell, Albert Ernest (Known as Bert Bedwell)
UKIP. Votes cast = 466
Croft, David Owen Thapelo (Known as Dave Croft)
Liberal Democrats. Votes cast = 78
De Santis, Giuseppe British National Party. Votes cast = 37
Turnout was 29.75%.
So a poor result for everyone but Labour.
UKIP are very thin on the ground in Barking and Dagenham and presumably be concentrating on Havering.
I was Councillor for Village Ward from 1990-2004, and cannot see UKIP gaining anything here.Despite the loss of one seat to the BNP in the shock results of 2006, it is fundamentally a solid Labour seat.
Probably not much excitement in May here, but one interesting ward to watch may be Mayesbrook, which started out as 3 Labour Councillors in 2010 and, through defections, now has 1 UKIP,1 Tory and 1 Independent (anti-cuts). The UKIP one is Dee Hunt an ex Mayor and quite popular in the ward.There are other Labour Councillors who did not get reselected, but none so far have jumped ship apart from Robert Douglas (Becontree Ward).
I'm surprised conhome put up this rambling piece by former Labour & now Conservative Councillor Ralph Baldwin but it is interesting enough in its way.
Here is a small taster:
But if the Right is divided then a far more dangerous event will occur than either victory for UKIP or defeat for David Cameron. Labour will prevail and they are now, today unlike any Labour Party of the past you have witnessed they are a declining Party who are fully evolving into a criminal organisation.
I read the post on Conhome.It is completely illiterate, lacking basic punctuation.He has no chance of being elected.Unless you are Richard Balfe you cannot just go from left wing Labour to Tory overnight.The man is a car crash.