Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2020 23:19:25 GMT
Global News:
40% "Progressive Conservatives" 33% Liberals 14% Greens 11% PA 02% others
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2020 23:24:37 GMT
CBC:
39.8% = 26 (+4) PC 33.4% = 18 (-3) Lib. 14.5% = 03 ( 0) Greens 10.6% = 02 (-1) PA
They say, that normally ~42.7% is needed for an overall majority, so the PC's distribution must be especially efficient.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2020 23:32:14 GMT
CBC has called it for PC (either maj. or min.).
The leader of the Liberals is far behind in his riding (10 Miramichi)...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2020 0:08:42 GMT
GlobalNews and later CBC projected a majority for the PC (26-27 out of 49).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2020 0:12:14 GMT
With InFinal results the GREENS performed in this way:
13.1 (+3.8) N 27.8 (+4.3) E 12.8 (+3.0) S 08.3 (-2.7) W 23.8 (+5.5) Fredericton 12.4 (+3.7) Moncton 10.8 (+2.7) St.John 05.0 (+1.0) Miramichi
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2020 0:42:22 GMT
The PC seem to have gained less in the East and even have moved backwards (!) in the French&Arcadian North, delivering a very divided province.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2020 0:52:35 GMT
People's Alliance (warning: unFinal numbers):
09.1 00.3 (-0.3) N 03.1 (-0.4) E 17.1 (-2.5) S 17.6 (-6.0) W 16.6 (-10.4) Fredericton 05.4 (+0.9) Moncton 05.8 (-4.9) St.John 28.6 (-6.8) Miramichi
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 15, 2020 1:15:24 GMT
In the popular vote, the Tories are currently under 40% and with less than a 5% advantage over the Liberals, and are projected to win 27 seats out of 49.
The main reason for that level of efficiency seems to be that the Liberals have been piling up overwhelming majorities in the far north (84%-9% in Shippagan, 72%-12% in Caraquet, 75%-20% in Edmonston) but losing in a handful of other ridings where they were in contention. On the other hand, their leader couldn't even knock off an MLA from the fourth-largest party in the seat he chose to contest, they lost Saint John Harbour, a constituency they were defending, quite heavily and their incumbent in Fredericton North finished a distant third.
The only other place (apart from the aforementioned ridiculous swing in Shippagan) where a gain looked possible was ultimately held by the Greens. The sole Liberal bright spot was that in the Moncton area, they retained a seat where the Greens were ahead at one point and will keep 4 further nearby ridings intact. Just 14 of the 17 MLAs in their caucus appear to be anglophones – a problem mirrored in the PCs' team.
A mere 2 seats in the northern half of the province went to the Conservatives (one of those a gain!) and neither of those touches the very northern tip of its borders. In the deeply blue south, only one constituency was won by a francophone who will probably now get into the Cabinet by defualt.
The People's Alliance lost one of the 3 seats they'd won in 2018 very heavily (20% behind) but their leader made his riding even safer. They won't hold the balance of power anymore, of course. The NDP, meanwhile, have been in disarray for years. They don't have a permanent leader currently and didn't even run candidates in the north, previously their most promising region. Their best performances saw them take around 6% of the vote and not finish last.
The main conclusion of the night, according to the state's local radio coverage, is that Premier Higgs won his bet as the gamble of calling a snap election in the middle of a pandemic paid off. Let's hope the legislature lasts a full 4 years this time...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2020 1:29:36 GMT
The number of MPs seems to be quite clear:
27 (+5) "Progressive Conservatives" 17 (-4) Liberals 03 ( 0) Greens 02 (-1) People's Alliance
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 15, 2020 2:09:39 GMT
Thanks for all the information Georg. I wasn't aware there was an election going on until just now.
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robert1
Conservative
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Post by robert1 on Sept 15, 2020 7:12:23 GMT
Thank you 'guys' (said in a friendly, generic, non-sexist sort of way-I hope). I want to know when some of you sleep?
Analysis and stats excellent.
Any takeaway for a national election?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2020 10:48:34 GMT
Thank you 'guys' (said in a friendly, generic, non-sexist sort of way-I hope). I want to know when some of you sleep? Analysis and stats excellent. Any takeaway for a national election? I thank You! Litres of coffee let me fall asleep not before every seat was clear. For the national level the only interesting fact - apart from the Greens doing not as well as in the polls - might be, that a provoked SnapElection does not necessarily hurt the incumbent (but in NB the situation for the minority government was worse since a defection in spring - not sure, the Canadians would be similarily generous to Trudeau jr.).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 15, 2020 10:50:52 GMT
Stating the obvious I know, but such a comedy result for the NDP. Did they actually manage to get fewer votes than members?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Sept 15, 2020 11:18:43 GMT
Green parties underperforming their polling numbers is a fairly common theme around the world.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 15, 2020 12:04:51 GMT
Stating the obvious I know, but such a comedy result for the NDP. Did they actually manage to get fewer votes than members? Apparently not, according to Wikipedia they only have 346 members in New Brunswick but won 5,648 votes
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 15, 2020 12:53:02 GMT
The NDP have never been very strong in Atlantic Canada over than in Nova Scotia (and even there they only broke into second and then first place around the first decade of this century). In New Brunswick they've never had more than two elected members at once and even that was only due to a by-election gain.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 15, 2020 13:10:31 GMT
Thank you 'guys' (said in a friendly, generic, non-sexist sort of way-I hope). I want to know when some of you sleep? Analysis and stats excellent. Any takeaway for a national election? No real learning for the next federal election. The Tory incumbent is popular here but clearly the polarisation in voting patterns in the province based on language has become ever more entrenched. A majority government in NB with a sole native French speaking MP is potentially problematic and cause the Tories to really crash & burn when they do inevitably become less popular. The pattern of seat wins pretty much echos the federal riding wins last year (with the extra variable of the incumbent Tory premier's popularity and the federal Liberals popularity in The Atlantics).
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 15, 2020 13:26:44 GMT
In the popular vote, the Tories are currently under 40% and with less than a 5% advantage over the Liberals, and are projected to win 27 seats out of 49. The main reason for that level of efficiency seems to be that the Liberals have been piling up overwhelming majorities in the far north (84%-9% in Shippagan, 72%-12% in Caraquet, 75%-20% in Edmonston) but losing in a handful of other ridings where they were in contention. On the other hand, their leader couldn't even knock off an MLA from the fourth-largest party in the seat he chose to contest, they lost Saint John Harbour, a constituency they were defending, quite heavily and their incumbent in Fredericton North finished a distant third. The only other place (apart from the aforementioned ridiculous swing in Shippagan) where a gain looked possible was ultimately held by the Greens. The sole Liberal bright spot was that in the Moncton area, they retained a seat where the Greens were ahead at one point and will keep 4 further nearby ridings intact. Just 14 of the 17 MLAs in their caucus appear to be anglophones – a problem mirrored in the PCs' team. A mere 2 seats in the northern half of the province went to the Conservatives (one of those a gain!) and neither of those touches the very northern tip of its borders. In the deeply blue south, only one constituency was won by a francophone who will probably now get into the Cabinet by defualt.The People's Alliance lost one of the 3 seats they'd won in 2018 very heavily (20% behind) but their leader made his riding even safer. They won't hold the balance of power anymore, of course. The NDP, meanwhile, have been in disarray for years. They don't have a permanent leader currently and didn't even run candidates in the north, previously their most promising region. Their best performances saw them take around 6% of the vote and not finish last. The main conclusion of the night, according to the state's local radio coverage, is that Premier Higgs won his bet as the gamble of calling a snap election in the middle of a pandemic paid off. Let's hope the legislature lasts a full 4 years this time... He was going to get in anyways, he was a star candidate, former CEO of NB Liquor. He wouldn't have left the corporate world without a good reason.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 15, 2020 15:25:05 GMT
Would there be any scope for a Quebec sovereigntist party to do well in Northern New Brunswick on "Francophone rights" or "unite with Quebec for greater devolution" platform?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2020 18:27:33 GMT
Stating the obvious I know, but such a comedy result for the NDP. Did they actually manage to get fewer votes than members? Their "leader", a 23-year-old student from Alberta:
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