Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 21, 2019 16:37:00 GMT
If I've understood the 338 website right, they're on course to get around 13 seats... with a margin of error of 13 seats... This 338 website seems pretty good. 338canada.com/ It's seems to be a new site, but very much like the Electoral Calculus site, sans the user predictions. Gives a real detailed look the districts, candidates and regions. Highly recommend you all check it out. Of course, it does beg the question, whats gone so horribly wrong for the NDP?
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 21, 2019 18:07:27 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 21, 2019 18:12:00 GMT
If I've understood the 338 website right, they're on course to get around 13 seats... with a margin of error of 13 seats... This 338 website seems pretty good. 338canada.com/ It's seems to be a new site, but very much like the Electoral Calculus site, sans the user predictions. Gives a real detailed look the districts, candidates and regions. Highly recommend you all check it out. Of course, it does beg the question, whats gone so horribly wrong for the NDP? As I read it it gives the PPC a 0.3 chance of winning a seat, and that’s in Quebec. In all the other Provinces they’re showing as zero. As for the site, I’m pretty sure it was around four years ago and openly modelled itself on Nate Silver’s 538.com from South of the border.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 21, 2019 19:34:30 GMT
If I've understood the 338 website right, they're on course to get around 13 seats... with a margin of error of 13 seats... This 338 website seems pretty good. 338canada.com/ It's seems to be a new site, but very much like the Electoral Calculus site, sans the user predictions. Gives a real detailed look the districts, candidates and regions. Highly recommend you all check it out. Of course, it does beg the question, whats gone so horribly wrong for the NDP? As I read it it gives the PPC a 0.3 chance of winning a seat, and that’s in Quebec. In all the other Provinces they’re showing as zero. As for the site, I’m pretty sure it was around four years ago and openly modelled itself on Nate Silver’s 538.com from South of the border. No idea, but its certainly new to me, and certainly wasn't easily googleable a few months ago. I know there was a similar site, but I can't remember what it was, but this one is better.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 21, 2019 21:02:52 GMT
As I read it it gives the PPC a 0.3 chance of winning a seat, and that’s in Quebec. In all the other Provinces they’re showing as zero. As for the site, I’m pretty sure it was around four years ago and openly modelled itself on Nate Silver’s 538.com from South of the border. No idea, but its certainly new to me, and certainly wasn't easily googleable a few months ago. I know there was a similar site, but I can't remember what it was, but this one is better. Had a look through and he doesn’t appear to have updated between elections which might explain why it’s low down Google.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 21, 2019 21:45:15 GMT
This news is a couple of weeks old. "Fourteen disgruntled former New Brunswick NDP candidates are defecting and throwing their support behind the provincial and federal Greens — a move unlikely to spark confidence in the federal New Democrats on the cusp of an election call." www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-greens-nb-1.5268498
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Post by pepperminttea on Sept 22, 2019 5:44:21 GMT
Yup normally I would be willing to give people a pass on things they did a long time ago when they were younger and more naive. However Trudeau has been attacking the Tory leader Andrew Scheer for his past views on gay marriage (despite the fact that Canadian public opinion has also shifted massively) and so him wearing brownface is totally fair game especially to point out his utter hypocrisy. This scandal will be more damaging to Trudeau than it would be to most politicians seen as he's built his entire brand on 'woke, political correctness' and gives the NDP a golden opportunity to save their floundering campaign. Gay marriage and abortion are relevant, given there is a considerable part of the base of the Conservative Party who wants to repeal those laws. Gay Marriage in Canada is a done deal, anyone who's being remotely serious know the chances of it being repealed under a Scheer government are exactly zero. Abortion is perhaps more relevant due to the potential to put ever greater restrictions on it to make its access nigh impossible to most people, especially the poor, without actually making it illegal. However Scheer is a extremely dull, generic, centre-right politician (perhaps a bit Theresa May-ish); the idea that he would lead some anti-abortion crusade if he became PM is an inaccurate thing to scaremonger about.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,993
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Post by maxque on Sept 22, 2019 15:58:39 GMT
Gay marriage and abortion are relevant, given there is a considerable part of the base of the Conservative Party who wants to repeal those laws. Gay Marriage in Canada is a done deal, anyone who's being remotely serious know the chances of it being repealed under a Scheer government are exactly zero. Abortion is perhaps more relevant due to the potential to put ever greater restrictions on it to make its access nigh impossible to most people, especially the poor, without actually making it illegal. However Scheer is a extremely dull, generic, centre-right politician (perhaps a bit Theresa May-ish); the idea that he would lead some anti-abortion crusade if he became PM is an inaccurate thing to scaremonger about. The fear is more about him not being about to control his religious backbench (he is not as firm as Harper).
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Post by greenhert on Sept 22, 2019 16:21:47 GMT
The full list of candidates in each riding will be finalised in nine days' time (deadline for nominations in this Canadian federal election is 30 September).
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 22, 2019 20:32:23 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Sept 22, 2019 22:34:14 GMT
Of these defences:
The NDP should hold at least Vancouver East, Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor West, Burnaby South, Hamilton Centre, Churchill-Keewattinook Aski (anti-Trudeau vote in strictly NDP-Liberal contest) Timmins-James Bay, and Skeena-Bulkley.
In British Columbia they are certain to lose both Victoria and Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke to the Green Party and furthermore the Greens will keep Nanaimo-Ladysmith, which they gained from the NDP in a by-election earlier this year. Cowichat-Malahat-Langford could be a Green gain as well. Reclaiming Outremont, lost at a 2018 by-election, will not prove easy for the NDP. Courtenay-Alberni is one to watch though.
The NDP seats in Quebec are another matter; NDP Deputy Leader Alexandre Boulence holds what is on paper the safest NDP seat in Canada but Bloc Quebecois may spring a surprise; they have recovered significantly from their split of 2018. NDP House Leader Ruth Brousseau should hold Berthier-Maskinonge but it is not assured. Guy Caron should hold Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques since the Liberal vote will unwind and BQ are not in a position to capture it at present. All other NDP seats in Quebec are likely or certain losses.
Everything else is likely or certain to be lost by the NDP in the 2019 Canadian election, including the majority of ridings where the NDP incumbent is retiring at this election. The flow of Liberal voters disappointed with Justin Trudeau to the NDP will not be enough in most cases. A few gains from the Liberals are possible for the NDP, though, such as St John's East in Newfoundland & Labrador.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 24, 2019 18:17:03 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 30, 2019 2:56:07 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 30, 2019 20:35:33 GMT
"A rising tide of western alienation may rally Conservative voters in Alberta, Saskatchewan and parts of British Columbia, but political watchers say they don’t expect it to make a big splash in the election elsewhere in the country. .................. “I’ve honestly never felt so … not even under-appreciated, just like completely ignored,” says Sarah Leguee, a grain farmer in southeastern Saskatchewan. “It seems like any time we, you know, say something, we just get labelled as racists, as bigots." globalnews.ca/news/5966707/alienation-western-voters-experts-angry/
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 4, 2019 18:14:29 GMT
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,659
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 4, 2019 21:13:06 GMT
Technically correct, but reads oddly. Feels like it should be "Thousands of HongKongers have Canadian citizenship, so we polled them".
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 7, 2019 8:11:10 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 12, 2019 14:50:57 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 12, 2019 17:52:15 GMT
It's interesting how a relatively small uptick in support for the BQ has completely changed the forecast.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,384
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Post by mboy on Oct 12, 2019 18:26:23 GMT
Much the same way the SNP putting on 2% slaughtered Labour in 2015.
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