The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 8, 2024 9:52:58 GMT
Its been said again and again when people make this "comparison", but most pollsters have changed their methodology significantly since the mid 1990s.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 5, 2024 15:29:16 GMT
January update of poll averages...:
Labour 44.7% (+1.6% from December figures) Conservative 24.7% (+0.2%) Lib Dems 9.8% (-1.4%) SNP 3% (-0.1%) Reform 9.5% (+0.5%) Greens 5.8% (-0.1%)
Labour recovered their previous month losses (probably all related to MoE anyway) and restored a lead of exactly 20% over the course of the month. LDs dropped off a bit in January but not reading much into that either. Quantity of votes is far less important than voter distribution for them, as 2019 demonstrated! Reform continue to tack on gradual support but VI in response to a survey is different from actually casting a ballot, so it will be intersting to see how they fare in the 3 By=Elections coming up later this month.
** Electoral Calculus [GB only] projects: Lab 459, Con 120, LD 31, SNP 19, PC 2, Green 1
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Post by batman on Feb 20, 2024 14:30:18 GMT
It's worth noting that, when you started carrying out your highly useful task of producing monthly poll averages in June last year, the average Labour lead was 16%. Far from the Conservatives narrowing the gap, it has actually grown quite a lot further. The conventional wisdom is that governments narrow the gap as the election approaches, and that could yet happen, but absolutely no sign of it yet. Labour's share of the vote has not changed much in this period, but the Conservative vote has sharply reduced still further.
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Post by michaelarden on Feb 20, 2024 14:40:05 GMT
It's worth noting that, when you started carrying out your highly useful task of producing monthly poll averages in June last year, the average Labour lead was 16%. Far from the Conservatives narrowing the gap, it has actually grown quite a lot further. The conventional wisdom is that governments narrow the gap as the election approaches, and that could yet happen, but absolutely no sign of it yet. Labour's share of the vote has not changed much in this period, but the Conservative vote has sharply reduced still further. The Tories are almost back to Liz Truss levels.
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Post by batman on Mar 11, 2024 10:38:01 GMT
Do we have a February update? If not I could work one out
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Post by batman on Mar 11, 2024 17:06:07 GMT
There were 37 polls sampled either partly or entirely in February. They average as follows : Lab 44 C 24 RefUK 10 LD 10 Green 6 SNP 3. Not all polls had an SNP headline figure but the vast majority put the party on 3% Britain-wide so I've gone with that figure.
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Post by batman on Apr 3, 2024 16:47:27 GMT
As manchesterman has not been around of late, I've provisionally calculated an average of all polls sampled in March. I've excluded the Wisdom Index which a ) doesn't have a figure for Reform UK and b ) isn't really a poll as such. I can update if further polls sampled in March come to light in the next few days. I have included the SNP but not all polls had a figure for them, I have averaged out the ones that had. One poll had no figure for the Greens either.
Lab 43.7 C 23.8 RefUK 11.8 LD 10.0 Green 5.6 SNP 2.7
Very little change from February, except that Reform UK are up mostly at the expense of Others.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 3, 2024 23:25:03 GMT
Sorry about my extended absence. I was about to do this tonight, but you saved me the bother
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Post by batman on Apr 4, 2024 9:18:06 GMT
Please resume your normal role next month if that’s OK☺️
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Post by batman on Apr 6, 2024 10:58:12 GMT
I've fed in the figures from BMG's March poll which were missing, but the only change is Labour down 0.1% after rounding to 43.6%. No SNP figure was given.
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Post by swingometer on Apr 9, 2024 13:39:18 GMT
The question time audience is incredibly left-centred. Being held mainly in large cities probably is one of the reasons. Attracting the disgruntled is probably another Nothings changed, the few right wing members of the audience get their responses heard like they’ve murdered a child, hence why no one speaks up much. Even in Middlesbrough, the last before Easter, I noticed audience members hesistating to speak up on controversial matters.
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Post by swingometer on Apr 9, 2024 13:39:53 GMT
It's worth noting that, when you started carrying out your highly useful task of producing monthly poll averages in June last year, the average Labour lead was 16%. Far from the Conservatives narrowing the gap, it has actually grown quite a lot further. The conventional wisdom is that governments narrow the gap as the election approaches, and that could yet happen, but absolutely no sign of it yet. Labour's share of the vote has not changed much in this period, but the Conservative vote has sharply reduced still further. The Tories are almost back to Liz Truss levels. When were they off it?
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 573
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Post by nyx on Apr 9, 2024 14:38:02 GMT
The Tories are almost back to Liz Truss levels. When were they off it? Mid 2023 was their post Truss peak, they hit 30% in a lot of polls then.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 9, 2024 17:39:57 GMT
The Tories are almost back to Liz Truss levels. When were they off it? For about five seconds after she resigned. The nation was so grateful.
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