Dewsbury and Batley

[YL]

As the new name might suggest, this can be thought of as a continuation of the former Dewsbury constituency with Batley replacing most of the areas outside Dewsbury proper previously included with that town. However this boundary change has a very striking political effect, which will turn the constituency from a marginal (voting Labour in 2015 and 2017 but Conservative in 2010 and 2019) to what will be a usually safe Labour seat, though it might be vulnerable, probably not to the Conservatives, in exceptional circumstances.

Dewsbury and Batley are the heart of the Heavy Woollen District. The central part of West Yorkshire developed a speciality for making heavy wool products from recycled wool; these fabrics have the rather unpromising sounding names "shoddy" and "mungo", words which you will still see on old mill buildings in this area. The name Heavy Woollen District is well established, being used, for example, for local sporting leagues, and for a time there was a localist party active called the Heavy Woollen District Independents. It is not a local government area, with the areas in this constituency and some neighbouring ones sharing the Metropolitan Borough of Kirklees with the Huddersfield area but other parts of the District being in Leeds or Wakefield for local government purposes.

The Heavy Woollen District attracted considerable migration from the Indian subcontinent in the 20th century, and the area has become very polarised into Asian (mostly Muslim) and white dominated areas. Most of the Asian dominated areas are in this constituency, and it is 43.7% Muslim, the 8th most Muslim constituency in England and Wales. It is a young constituency, and has a working class population with low educational attainment; it is 15th in England and Wales for the proportion with no qualifications and 12th for the proportion who have never worked or are long-term unemployed.

The two towns are contiguous and it might be a little surprising that they have not been in the same constituency since 1918, Batley having been paired with Morley from 1918 to 1983 and since then with the "Spen" area. The general description of the constituency as a working class and heavily Asian area applies to most parts of it, though there are some less deprived pockets and the eastern and southern fringes of Dewsbury, especially the semi-detached area of Thornhill, are less Asian, though still quite working class for the most part. The most Muslim wards are Batley East and Dewsbury West, both well over 50%, with Dewsbury South and Batley West being a little below 50% and Dewsbury East the outlier at just below 20%. One area from the old Dewsbury constituency outside the town does remain here, the village of Flockton on the Wakefield to Huddersfield road and neighbouring areas in the north of Kirkburton ward; these are not the most middle class parts of that ward (the rest of which is in Ossett & Denby Dale) but still they are a little out of place.

Apart from the part of Kirkburton here, all wards have mostly elected Labour councillors in recent years. However, there have been exceptions and in the Noughties they were less reliable, with various Dewsbury wards election both Conservatives and Lib Dems; the whiter Dewsbury East also elected a BNP councillor in 2006. Dewsbury East has also been known to vote for the aforementioned (but now defunct) Heavy Woollen District Independents, who like many localist parties were essentially a UKIP offshoot. Although Labour have not lost it, Batley East has shown some striking recent volatility: following George Galloway's challenge in the 2021 Batley & Spen by-election it gave a high vote to a candidate from his Workers' Party in 2022, then it nearly voted Conservative in 2023 of all years, but then swung sharply back to Labour in a by-election later in 2023.

The incumbent Conservative MP for Dewsbury, Mark Eastwood, has made what, given the notional result here, is a sensible choice and followed the Denby Dale and Kirkburton areas to defend Ossett & Denby Dale, and the Labour MP who won that 2021 by-election in Batley & Spen, Kim Leadbeater, has chosen to stand in Spen Valley, so this is an open seat. That George Galloway by-election challenge might give a hint as to the most likely way Labour could find themselves in trouble here, but in normal circumstances it is hard to see this constituency voting for anybody other than the Labour candidate.

2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):

Lab 27241 (59.1%)
Con 13232 (28.7%)
Brexit Party 1565 (3.4%)
Lib Dem 1156 (2.5%)
Green 512 (1.1%)
Other 2395 (5.2%)

Lab majority 14009 (30.4%)

[Robert Waller]

2021 Census, new boundaries

Age 65+ 13.3% 484/575
Owner occupied 60.5% 388/575
Private rented 19.8% 215/575
Social rented 19.7% 158/575
White 51.2% 531/575
Black 0.8% 360/575
Asian 44.4% 17/575
Muslim 43.7% 8/575
Managerial & professional 21.2% 541/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.9% 109/575
Degree level 22.6% 540/575
No qualifications 27.8% 15/575
Students 8.6% 134/575


General Election 2019: Dewsbury

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Mark Eastwood 26,179 46.4 +1.3
Labour Paula Sherriff 24,618 43.7 -7.3
Liberal Democrats John Rossington 2,406 4.3 +2.2
Brexit Party Philip James 1,874 3.3 New
Green Simon Cope 1,060 1.9 +0.1
Monster Raving Loony Sir Archibald Earl Eaton Stanton 252 0.4 New

C Majority 1,561 2.7

Turnout 56,389 69.4 -0.1

Conservative gain from Labour

Swing 4.3 Lab to C




Boundary Changes
Dewsbury and Batley consists of
53.0% of Dewsbury
33.3% of Batley & Spen

Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_500_Dewsbury%20and%20Batley_Portrait.pdf

[Merseymike]

There is no Labour candidate for Dewsbury and Batley. I know Hugh Goulborn wants the seat - but given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?

[nyx]

I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats.

[swingometer]

May 5, 2024 2:43:19 GMT nyx said:

I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats.

Too big a risk, especially at the moment

[nyx]

May 5, 2024 3:37:35 GMT swingometer said:

May 5, 2024 2:43:19 GMT nyx said:

I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats.

Too big a risk, especially at the moment

Ethnic pandering also carries a risk- see Pendle, where almost all Labour councillors were Muslim and all resigned from the party en masse.

[bsjmcr]

May 4, 2024 22:47:04 GMT Merseymike said:

There is no Labour candidate for Dewsbury and Batley. I know Hugh Goulborn wants the seat - but given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?

At first it might appear the case but it doesn’t guarantee it and can backfire if the wrong candidate - they vote on issues generally - it didn’t work out too well in Bradford West in 2012… and in Rochdale I think it’s quite likely Ali would have lost even if he wasn’t disowned given the abuse he was getting at the start of the campaign (I don’t condone this of course) with his loyal party line position. 

The result in Dewsbury West is pretty interesting too - Tanisha Bramwell, a charity campaigner who runs a food bank, romped home, beating the (Muslim) Labour candidate (who was quite popular actually, and you can see she did much better than Pandor) by a four figure majority. Looking at her tweets she caught the mood of the whole ward - yes winning over the Asian areas by being on their side on Palestine but also everyone else by being what seems to be a very well known person in the area helping some of the poorest people in the community, there are many local news articles on her work. She previously stood in 2021. If she was to stand as an independent at the GE on a cost of living ticket I think she could do rather well. She seems the sort of person who deserves a O/MBE of some kind so watch this space. 

[Merseymike]

May 5, 2024 8:39:58 GMT bsjmcr said:

May 4, 2024 22:47:04 GMT Merseymike said:

There is no Labour candidate for Dewsbury and Batley. I know Hugh Goulborn wants the seat - but given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?

At first it might appear the case but it doesn’t guarantee it and can backfire if the wrong candidate - they vote on issues generally - it didn’t work out too well in Bradford West in 2012… and in Rochdale I think it’s quite likely Ali would have lost even if he wasn’t disowned given the abuse he was getting at the start of the campaign (I don’t condone this of course) with his loyal party line position. 

The result in Dewsbury West is pretty interesting too - Tanisha Bramwell, a charity campaigner who runs a food bank, romped home, beating the (Muslim) Labour candidate (who was quite popular actually, and you can see she did much better than Pandor) by a four figure majority. Looking at her tweets she caught the mood of the whole ward - yes winning over the Asian areas by being on their side on Palestine but also everyone else by being what seems to be a very well known person in the area helping some of the poorest people in the community, there are many local news articles on her work. She previously stood in 2021. If she was to stand as an independent at the GE on a cost of living ticket I think she could do rather well. She seems the sort of person who deserves a O/MBE of some kind so watch this space. 

She is an excellent candidate. She works with Cllr Ammar Anwar who resigned because of Palestine. I am sure that local people, Asian and white voters, voted enthusiastically.

[The Bishop]

May 5, 2024 2:43:19 GMT nyx said:

I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats.

Picking a minority candidate for a significantly minority seat does not, in itself, amount to "ethnic pandering".

[nyx]

May 5, 2024 10:25:43 GMT The Bishop said:

May 5, 2024 2:43:19 GMT nyx said:

I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats.

Picking a minority candidate for a significantly minority seat does not, in itself, amount to "ethnic pandering".

Picking a minority candidate because they happen to be the best-qualified candidate is certainly not pandering, regardless of the demographics of the seat.

Merseymike's suggestion was, and I quote, "given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?"

This is a suggestion that the candidate should be chosen under grounds of religion rather than of competence.

[edgbaston]

May 5, 2024 11:22:32 GMT nyx said:

May 5, 2024 10:25:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Picking a minority candidate for a significantly minority seat does not, in itself, amount to "ethnic pandering".

Picking a minority candidate because they happen to be the best-qualified candidate is certainly not pandering, regardless of the demographics of the seat.

Merseymike's suggestion was, and I quote, "given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?"

This is a suggestion that the candidate should be chosen under grounds of religion rather than of competence.

And there are plenty of competent candidates that happen to be of the Muslim faith that Labour could pick. Mike is just expressing a political reality that this is important to a lot of voters in this constituency.

[Adam in Stroud]

May 5, 2024 11:28:54 GMT edgbaston said:

May 5, 2024 11:22:32 GMT nyx said:

Picking a minority candidate because they happen to be the best-qualified candidate is certainly not pandering, regardless of the demographics of the seat.

Merseymike's suggestion was, and I quote, "given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?"

This is a suggestion that the candidate should be chosen under grounds of religion rather than of competence.

And there are plenty of competent candidates that happen to be of the Muslim faith that Labour could pick. Mike is just expressing a political reality that this is important to a lot of voters in this constituency.

There are all sorts of reasons why you pick a certain sort of candidate in a specific constituency.

A farmer in a rural constituency, ex-military where there's a big base, northerners in the North, working class candidates in working class areas.

Understanding your local community is basic and if you don't like it then give up on constituency based FPTP representation.

[nyx]

May 5, 2024 11:28:54 GMT edgbaston said:

May 5, 2024 11:22:32 GMT nyx said:

Picking a minority candidate because they happen to be the best-qualified candidate is certainly not pandering, regardless of the demographics of the seat.

Merseymike's suggestion was, and I quote, "given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?"

This is a suggestion that the candidate should be chosen under grounds of religion rather than of competence.

And there are plenty of competent candidates that happen to be of the Muslim faith that Labour could pick. Mike is just expressing a political reality that this is important to a lot of voters in this constituency.

If the political reality in question involves using religious discrimination in the selection process, that is not a good thing. Likewise, I expect many followers of Islam would prefer a male representative rather than a female one, but I would not suggest that Labour prioritize fielding male candidates in such constituencies either.

Also- I cannot find statistics for the constituency as a whole, but I will note that the religious demographics of Dewsbury itself in the 2021 census were 46% Christian, 28.9% Muslim, 23.7% No Religion. If one were using religious discrimination in the selection process, surely that would imply selecting a Christian candidate, not a Muslim one?

[edgbaston]

May 5, 2024 11:39:34 GMT nyx said:

May 5, 2024 11:28:54 GMT edgbaston said:

And there are plenty of competent candidates that happen to be of the Muslim faith that Labour could pick. Mike is just expressing a political reality that this is important to a lot of voters in this constituency.

If the political reality in question involves using religious discrimination in the selection process, that is not a good thing. Likewise, I expect many followers of Islam would prefer a male representative rather than a female one, but I would not suggest that Labour prioritize fielding male candidates in such constituencies either.

Also- I cannot find statistics for the constituency as a whole, but I will note that the religious demographics of Dewsbury itself in the 2021 census were 46% Christian, 28.9% Muslim, 23.7% No Religion. If one were using religious discrimination in the selection process, surely that would imply selecting a Christian candidate, not a Muslim one?

The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it?

[Pete Whitehead]

May 5, 2024 11:55:55 GMT edgbaston said:

May 5, 2024 11:39:34 GMT nyx said:

If the political reality in question involves using religious discrimination in the selection process, that is not a good thing. Likewise, I expect many followers of Islam would prefer a male representative rather than a female one, but I would not suggest that Labour prioritize fielding male candidates in such constituencies either.

Also- I cannot find statistics for the constituency as a whole, but I will note that the religious demographics of Dewsbury itself in the 2021 census were 46% Christian, 28.9% Muslim, 23.7% No Religion. If one were using religious discrimination in the selection process, surely that would imply selecting a Christian candidate, not a Muslim one?

The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it?

If there was evidence that in a particular constituency, a large body of the electorate were open to voting Labour but would only vote for a white candidate, would you be openly advocating that Labour should avoid selecting a candidate from an ethnic minority for that seat? Let us say a black candidate who has grown up in that constituency and would like to be considered for the Labour nomination. Will you tell him that it would do Labour well for the candidate to be White?

[nyx]

May 5, 2024 11:55:55 GMT edgbaston said:

The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it?

If it is indeed true that Muslim voters are more likely to hold bigoted views than Christian voters are, and are broadly less willing to vote for a candidate of a different race/religion, then I wouldn't say it would be a good idea to pander to said bigotry for the sake of electoral success. Yes, if one's sole priority is as many MPs as possible, then that would be a way of doing so- but surely a party should hold some sort of principles and not willing to make any concession conceivable for the sake of power?

[edgbaston]

May 5, 2024 12:18:37 GMT nyx said:

May 5, 2024 11:55:55 GMT edgbaston said:

The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it?

If it is indeed true that Muslim voters are more likely to hold bigoted views than Christian voters are, and are broadly less willing to vote for a candidate of a different race/religion, then I wouldn't say it would be a good idea to pander to said bigotry for the sake of electoral success. Yes, if one's sole priority is as many MPs as possible, then that would be a way of doing so- but surely a party should hold some sort of principles and not willing to make any concession conceivable for the sake of power?

Bigoted?? There is nothing wrong with identifying with a candidate as a voter because they share the same religion as you. This is ridiculous

[edgbaston]

May 5, 2024 12:10:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 5, 2024 11:55:55 GMT edgbaston said:

The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it?

If there was evidence that in a particular constituency, a large body of the electorate were open to voting Labour but would only vote for a white candidate, would you be openly advocating that Labour should avoid selecting a candidate from an ethnic minority for that seat? Let us say a black candidate who has grown up in that constituency and would like to be considered for the Labour nomination. Will you tell him that it would do Labour well for the candidate to be White?

In the past some ethnic minority Labour candidates did probably do worse due to old prejudices when you look at the figures. These days I believe the consensus is that this has largely disappeared

[nyx]

May 5, 2024 12:31:36 GMT edgbaston said:

May 5, 2024 12:18:37 GMT nyx said:

If it is indeed true that Muslim voters are more likely to hold bigoted views than Christian voters are, and are broadly less willing to vote for a candidate of a different race/religion, then I wouldn't say it would be a good idea to pander to said bigotry for the sake of electoral success. Yes, if one's sole priority is as many MPs as possible, then that would be a way of doing so- but surely a party should hold some sort of principles and not willing to make any concession conceivable for the sake of power?

Bigoted?? There is nothing wrong with identifying with a candidate as a voter because they share the same religion as you. This is ridiculous

Surely being less willing to vote for a candidate on grounds of their race, religion, or other personal attributes, rather than on grounds of their ability and political views, is pretty much the definition of bigotry? I don't know how else you can see it.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 5, 2024 12:34:17 GMT edgbaston said:

May 5, 2024 12:10:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

If there was evidence that in a particular constituency, a large body of the electorate were open to voting Labour but would only vote for a white candidate, would you be openly advocating that Labour should avoid selecting a candidate from an ethnic minority for that seat? Let us say a black candidate who has grown up in that constituency and would like to be considered for the Labour nomination. Will you tell him that it would do Labour well for the candidate to be White?

In the past some ethnic minority Labour candidates did probably do worse due to old prejudices when you look at the figures. These days I believe the consensus is that this has largely disappeared

And if it hadn't, you would advocate pandering to these prejudices?