Malagasy Election 2023

[iain]

To be held (probably) on 16th November.

First, a quick post-independence potted history:
Madagascar gained independence from France in 1960, with Philibert Tsirinana becoming the first President, leading the Parti Sociale Democraté. Under his rule the country remained close to France, was relatively free, and saw modest growth. Tsiranana was able to consolidate power thanks to a very advantageous electoral system (which he helped to design).

After a couple of uprisings due to worsening economic conditions, student protests in the capital, Antananarivo, forced Tsiranana’s resignation in 1972. A brief period of military rule followed until 1975, when, following a referendum, the Democratic Republic of Madagascar was proclaimed under the leadership of Didier Ratsiraka. He nationalised French-owned industries, declared a ‘socialist revolution’ and grew close to the Soviets, but remained non-aligned during the Cold War. Only six parties, who were part of the ‘Vanguard of the Malagasy Revolution’, were allowed, but electoral competition between them was real.

In the 80s the ‘socialist’ government was forced to accept free market reforms by the IMF, and with the fall of the Berlin Wall and worsening economic conditions, Ratsiraka accepted free elections in 1991, and the Third Republic was formed.

Ratsiraka was comfortably beaten in the first elections by Albert Zafy, but returned in 1997 with promises to decentralise power to the provinces (though he also centralised power from Parliament to the Presidency). He was defeated in 2001 in a contentious election by Marc Ravalomanana, a successful self-made businessman and Mayor of Antananarivo, eventually giving up power after 7 months of violence.

Ravalomanana’s government was fairly successful, constructing thousands of new schools, roads and health clinics; negotiating debt write-offs; and tripling the country’s protected natural areas. However, inequality widened; he was criticised for removing secularism from the constitution; and the government became increasingly authoritarian, especially after his re-election in 2006.

That leads us to the 2009 political crisis, and the end of the third republic. The government closed down a TV station owned by Andry Rajoelina, the Mayor of Antananarivo, creating a powerful enemy, and this coincided with the controversial purchase of a second Presidential jet, and the incredibly unpopular decision to lease of half the country’s arable land to a Korean company (in Madagascar land is traditionally thought of as belonging to ancestors).

He resigned in 2009 and was replaced by Rajoelina, in what is generally considered as a coup (there was no constitutional way for the capital’s Mayor to just become President), resulting in the International Aid tap (representing 75% of state expenditure) being turned off. Expulsion from America’s AGOA led to the collapse of several industries, including the important textile industry, and the loss of 100,000 jobs, and over the next 5 years the proportion of the population living on under $2 per day rose from 60% to 90%.

New elections were eventually organised in 2013, with Rajoelina and Ravalomanana both agreeing not to stand. In their absence, Hery Rajaonarimampianina (Rajoelina’s man) was elected president, despite winning just under 16% in the first round. His government was corrupt and authoritarian, and it was no surprise that he lost re-election in 2018.

In that election he won just 9% as Rajoelina and Ravalomanana finally faced off – Rajoelina coming out on top 56%-44%. His government has overseen a devastating famine in the south of the country, promoted Covid-19 disinformation (including making drinking a ‘miracle cure’ tea compulsory in schools), and doesn’t have a lot in the way of achievements. Rajoelina has also cracked down hard on the political opposition, including banning political rallies earlier this year, leading to widespread concern that the election next week will be neither free nor fair.

[iain]

And now an overview of Malagasy politics slightly more generally:
Madagascar has roughly 18 ‘ethnic groups’ / tribes, which can basically be split in two – the Highlanders, who make up roughly 45% of the population and have more Asian ancestry, and the côtières (coastal people) who make up about 55% and have more African ancestry. The Highlanders, particularly the dominant Merina (25-30% of the population) originally united the island, and have basically dominated politics and business ever since.

It therefore comes as no surprise that the primary cleavage in Malagasy politics has always basically come down to the Highlanders, in particular the Merina, who live in and around the capital, versus those on the coast. Broadly speaking, the côtières support greater decentralisation, whereas the highlanders support a stronger state. Within these broad groups, however, different tribes and localities are more than capable of splintering away to back different candidates. The country has extremely poor connectivity, so ‘favoured son’ votes can often override all other considerations.

Related to the issue of the strength of the central state is that of nationalism. Madagascar has a strong isolationist streak, but this must be balanced against the fact that the country relies heavily on investment from abroad and foreign aid. The issue of language (Malagasy v French, and occasionally English) is generally a hot button issue, as is economic nationalism. The positioning of the country in relation to former colonial power, France, versus other investors like China, Russia and the US is a difficult balancing act, and Malagasy leaders are often accused (and not without merit) of allowing the country’s natural resources to be looted with little gain to the locals.

Religion also plays a powerful role in elections, and the FKKM (Council of Christian Churches in Madagascar), comprising the four largest denominations, has normally been a key broker in moments of crisis. Each of those denominations is more than capable of backing their own candidate when the conditions are right however – Marc Ravalomanana was a vice-president of the FJKM (Presbyterians) whilst President of the country, and has consistently received political support from them. In contrast, the coup against him was backed by the Catholic Church, who counted Andry Rajoelina as a member.

Campaigning has traditionally been difficult due to the country’s poverty (e.g. only 8% of households own a TV), meaning candidates have to directly take their message to people through rallies and meetings, or rely on proxies. The appalling state of many roads makes travel difficult, so the only candidates who can properly get a message out around most of the island are those who can afford a helicopter – making politics an even more exclusive game.

This time round campaigning has been put under even more pressure by the authoritarian decrees of President Rajoelina, who in addition to ‘normal’ tactics like media censorship and state capture of the judiciary, earlier this year banned political rallies. This has been condemned by international observers and many within the country, but may well deliver him the election (and there have been suggestions that if it isn’t enough, he will resort to ballot stuffing).



Now, a bit of extra context on this election:
The 2013 and 2018 elections saw 33 and 36 candidates running respectively, so this year’s field of 13 candidates is comparatively small. 11 of these candidates have formed the so-called ‘Collective of 11’, who have vowed not to campaign (because that always works …) in protest of Rajoelina’s suppression of the opposition, and have called for free and transparent elections. However, they have been on daily protest marches in the capital, which are in practice campaign events (but confined to Antananarivo), which have often been met with violence from the police, with 2 candidates injured and 1 arrested (subsequently released). The collective are still running against one another, but keeping Rajoelina under 50% would ensure a second round where the others would all back whoever comes out on top between them.

There were also bizarre shenanigans in September when Rajoelina resigned as President (required under the constitution if you wish to restand), meaning the President of the Senate, Herimanana Razafimahefa (supposedly Rajoelina’s ally), should take over temporarily. He took the job, then renounced it ‘for personal reasons’, before trying to retract his renunciation, claiming his letter was sent amongst death threats from the government. The Senate promptly convened, declared Razafimahefa ‘mentally deficient’ and appointed Prime Minister Christian Ntsay as interim President.

The elections have already been pushed back from 9th to 16th November by the High Court for unclear reasons, and yesterday a ‘mediation council’ headed by the Head of the Lower House of Parliament (from Rajoelina’s party) and the FKKM called for a postponement of the elections due to the violence currently being seen. This has been opposed by Rajoelina but supported by the Opposition.

[iain]

Now, the candidates. Most of these will be no-hopers (33 of the 36 last time won under 1.5%, though between them won over 16%), but knowing who will be able to break out from the pack is all but impossible. The candidates below are in a rough order of how I think they might finish, but I will almost certainly be badly wrong:

Andry Rajoelina
The current President, he has served since 2018. Previous to that, he was President from 2009-13 after leading a coup against his predecessor. He has long had the backing of shady businessman Mamy Ravatomanga, one of the richest men in Madagascar, who was named in the Panama Papers. Despite the fact that he is a wealthy Merina (son of an army officer), and came to prominence as Mayor of Antananarivo, Rajoelina’s electoral coalition in 2018 was based among the côtières, only managing 35% in the 4 Merina dominated provinces (though he only very narrowly lost in Antananarivo itself) even in the second round. In his first stint as President Rajoelina oversaw economic collapse (due to the coup), and in the second has had to battle a number of external crises – Covid 19, an appalling famine in the south, and Cyclone Batsirai which hit in 2022. Against this backdrop achievements are hard to pinpoint, though Rajoelina points to the fact that growth is above the African average and increased investment from China over the past 5 years, which has led to new infrastructure such as schools (though fewer kids are attending school than in 2018) and courts. His flagship projects range from bizarre (including a large replica of the Colosseum in the capital) to much-needed (such as Madagascar's first highway, linking Antananarivo and Toamasina, which was started last year). He recently fought off a legal challenge to his candidacy due to holding French dual nationality, but this has been a major line of attack for the opposition (opposing 'the Frenchman'). A major pledge at this election has been around expanding access to electricity, in a country where only around 30% of households have access to the grid.

Marc Ravalomanana
A Merina from a relatively humble background, Ravalomanana founded and ran one of Madagascar’s most successful companies, before being elected Mayor of Antananarivo in 1999, then President in 2001 and again in 2006. He was removed in a coup in 2009, but ran again in 2018, losing to Rajoelina with 44%. His political base has been in the central Merina region, where he won 63% in 2001, 75% in 2006 and 59% in 2018 (65% in the second round), though he has also achieved good results with the Highlander Betsileo and the côtières Sihanaka and Sakalava peoples in the north and north west. In power he had achievements to his name, notably in health, education and infrastructure, plus in protecting Madagascar’s environment and reducing corruption (to still not great levels). However, inequality grew, poverty remained high, and inflation rose; and he became increasingly authoritarian, leading to his eventual removal from power.

Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko
The President of the African Judo Union and of the Malagasy Olympic Committee, he is from a poor neighbourhood of the poor southern, coastal city of Toliara. He owns a radio station, and was originally elected as a Senator in 2013 for the party of then-president Hery Rajaonarimampianina, and then in 2018 for Rajoelina’s party; a position from which he has spoken out against a mining project near his home town. He is standing under the banner of the island’s original ruling party, the PSD, and had a bit of buzz around him originally, running a Mihava (listening) tour. He joined the Collective of 11, but recently restarted campaigning on his own again. He is rumoured to be the favoured candidate of the Kremlin, and apparently met several times with the Wagner Group this year.

Hery Rajaonarimampianina
The President from 2013-18, when he was a proxy candidate for Andry Rajoelina. He won jut 16% in the first round, but triumphed with 53% in the second, beating out Ravalomanana’s man. In his re-election campaign in 2018 he won just under 9%, finishing third. A Merina from a rural area, he was an accountant before being appointed Minister of Finance in 2009. He was elected as very much the côtières candidate in 2013, and his best results in 2018 came in the far north and south of the country – but he lacks a true electoral base of his own. In office he was often criticised for the poor economy, and impeachment was attempted against him. He did though manage to secure Madagascar’s re-entry into AGOA, and signed up to China’s Belt & Road Initiative.

Hajo Andrianainarivelo
The son of a former Mayor of the rural Merina municipality of Ankadinandriana, Andrianainarivelo followed in his footsteps to become Mayor himself from 1999 to 2009. He has since become Minister of Territorial Planning twice under Andry Rajoelina, from 2009-2013 and then again from 2019-2021, pursuing a policy of decentralisation. He also ran for President back in 2013, finishing third with 10% of the vote. He performed best in the south, but actually achieved a fairly consistent result across the country.

Roland Ratsiraka
The nephew of former President, Didier, he was Mayor of the eastern city of Toamasina, Madagascar’s main port, from 1999-2007 (when he was briefly imprisoned for corruption), and currently serves in the National Assembly for Toamasina I (covering the city). He has run for president 3 times already, in 2006 (winning 10%), 2013 (9%) and 2018 (0.4%). In the first two of those he won significant support amongst the Betsimisaraka, the country’s second largest group (of which he is a member), who inhabit the east coast, as well as the northern Antankarana.

Lalaina Ratsirahonana
The son of Norbert Ratsirahonana, who briefly served as interim-President in the late 90s, and ran for President in 2006, winning 4%. His best result came in Antananarivo, where he won 7%. Lalaina, who is a senior official in the FKJM (Presbyterian Church), is making his first foray into electoral politics, and is focusing on ‘reconciliation’.

Auguste Paraina
From a wealthy family in Madagascar’s south, he went into banking before becoming a Minister under both Albert Zafy and Didier Ratsiraka in the 90s and early 00s. He then went on to become President of the National Assembly between 2002-2003, Ambassador to both Italy and Senegal, and has founded an NGO promoting sustainable development.

Jean-Brunelle Razafintsiandraofa
A former member of the border police, now Vice-President of the National Assembly, he was elected for Andry Rajoelina’s party in 2018, but grew frustrated over a lack of progress in development and infrastructure in his district. He represents the eastern area of Ikongo, which was the worst hit by Cyclone Batsirai.

Tahina Razafinjoelina
A long-time ally of Marc Ravalomanana, including running his campaign in 2018, he broke away to join a new party based in the south-central city of Fianarantsoa. Razafinjoelina won the Madagascar Rally in 2018.

Sendrison Raderanirina
The sole opposition candidate who hasn’t joined the ‘Collective of 11’, Raderanirina is focused primarily on malnutrition, with an eventual goal of public participation in budgeting and decentralisation of most powers from central government.

Jean-Jacques Ratsietison
An economist focused on increasing the purchasing power of Malagasies. He was arrested and then released on his way to an opposition march a few days ago.

Andry Raobelina
An idealistic candidate who recently formed a new party, Raobelina has been unable to campaign since being evacuated from the island for medical treatment in early October. He was hit by a tear gas grenade thrown by police.

[gwynthegriff]

Nov 10, 2023 21:03:33 GMT iain said:

This time round campaigning has been put under even more pressure by the authoritarian decrees of President Rajoelina, who in addition to ‘normal’ tactics like media censorship and state capture of the judiciary, earlier this year banned political rallies.

So now we know the identity of carlton43 !

[Devil Wincarnate]

How utterly deranged. Fascinating. Great work iain.

[WJ]

I've spent quite a bit of time in Madagascar in the last few years for my research. A beautiful but deeply scarred country. Culturally, it feels much more like an Asian country than an African one in many ways (Malagasy's closest linguistic relatives can be found on Borneo of all places). Even where I was living and working in the coastal communities in the SW of the country, the people are a lot less "African" than you'd imagine. I suspect that even today, coastal communities would find that they have more in common with Indonesian people than they would with fishermen in Mozambique.

[Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Effectively, our best hope is Marc Ravalomanana wins again, no?

[rcronald]

The collapse of Madagascar has generally been an under-discussed topic where finding credible material has been hard for me, so thank you iain .

[iain]

Nov 10, 2023 23:34:12 GMT Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Effectively, our best hope is Marc Ravalomanana wins again, no?

Possibly. Rajoelina losing is probably for the best (though I think it unlikely given everything that's gone on. If I were to bet on the outcome - and only a fool would - I'd guess he wins in the first round), but any replacement is likely to make little meaningful progress in improving the lives of ordinary Malagasy, and will probably end up just as authoritarian. At least someone new would have to spend time reversing Rajoelina's institutional capture before embarking on their own.

Though I put Ravolomanana second in my preview, if someone is to actually beat Rajoelina then my money would possibly be on Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko (though as I say, anyone putting money on any outcome would be a brave man) who would be able to compete better in the coastal provinces. Just as possible he finishes about 6th with 2% of the vote though!

[iain]

The Collective of 10 (now officially minus Randrianasoloniaiko) are now calling for a boycott of the vote. What they think this will achieve beyond easing Rajoelina's path to re-election I don't know.

[iain]

Turnout reported to be very low (as expected given the boycott), with rumours that in Rajoelina's best areas it is only hitting 30%. For comparison, turnout in the First Round was 54% in 2018 and 62% in 2013. We won't get any results for a while though.

In the meantime, here are some maps of the results in 2018 (runoff results, plus the first round votes for Rajoelina, Ravalomanana and Rajaonarimampianina):



And here is an ethnic map to go alongside: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ethnic_groups_of_Madagascar_Map.png

[iain]

Still very early in terms of counting, but projections based on the first counting places have Rajoelina winning ~70% of the vote with Ravalomanana possibly even ahead of Randrianasoloniaiko (both on 10% ish) despite the latter actually campaigning.

The opposition says turnout is around 20%, the official results are saying 35-40%. I’m not sure what the plan of ‘the collective’ is, but assume the unrest will continue.

[John Chanin]

What is it with these extremely long names all beginning with r?

[WJ]

The letter a name begins with can often be a sign of where the person is from. R names are particularly common in the central uplands; N names in the coastal communities in the SW, T in the SE etc.

A Malagasy colleague of mine was once turned down for a university job in Antananarivo, solely because his name begins with a T, which signified that he likely came from the "wrong" part of the country.

[iain]

Nov 16, 2023 22:35:14 GMT iain said:

Still very early in terms of counting, but projections based on the first counting places have Rajoelina winning ~70% of the vote with Ravalomanana possibly even ahead of Randrianasoloniaiko (both on 10% ish) despite the latter actually campaigning.

The opposition says turnout is around 20%, the official results are saying 35-40%. I’m not sure what the plan of ‘the collective’ is, but assume the unrest will continue.

6% of polling stations counted and the official turnout is hovering just under 40%.



Rajoelina is going to be re-elected (currently on 73%). Randrianasoloniaiko is just over 10%, with Ravalomanana just under. The polling stations counted are currently hugely skewed towards the central Merina provinces at the moment though, so Ravalomanana will likely fall and the other two rise.

[johnloony]

My favourite fact about Madagascar is that the capital is Antananarivo rather than Antanarivo. When I was younger I misread it in reference books and for a while I thought it was Antanananarivo. Even better would be if it were Antananananananananananarivo.

[johnloony]

Nov 17, 2023 7:30:40 GMT John Chanin said:

What is it with these extremely long names all beginning with r?

Not as long as Antanananananananananananananananananarivovovovovovovogogogogogogogogogoch.

[Chris from Brum]

Nov 17, 2023 13:45:07 GMT johnloony said:

My favourite fact about Madagascar is that the capital is Antananarivo rather than Antanarivo. When I was younger I misread it in reference books and for a while I thought it was Antanananarivo. Even better would be if it were Antananananananananananarivo.

My favourite fact is that its national game is apparently rugby union. Despite that, it has yet to appear at the World Cup finals.

[gwynthegriff]

Nov 23, 2023 18:27:42 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Nov 17, 2023 13:45:07 GMT johnloony said:

My favourite fact about Madagascar is that the capital is Antananarivo rather than Antanarivo. When I was younger I misread it in reference books and for a while I thought it was Antanananarivo. Even better would be if it were Antananananananananananarivo.

My favourite fact is that its national game is apparently rugby union. Despite that, it has yet to appear at the World Cup finals.

Currently ranked 45th in the world so we may be waiting a while.

Their first international matches were two against Italy in 1970 which they lost 9-17 and 6-9, which rather surprised me.

Their heaviest defeat came in 2002, 112-0 to Namibia.

However they won the Africa Cup in 2012 beating Namibia 57-54 in what was clearly a very tight defensive game.

Their attempt to qualify for the 2023 ended when they finished bottom of their 3-team pool - each team won one match but Madagascar failed to gain any bonus points (their rivals did).

Their domestic inter-regional club tournament draws crowds of 10,000+. Welsh regions are jealous.

And it is reckoned there are more women than men playing (which cannot be common).

[iain]

With 85% Rajoelina has (against my expectations) trended downward, and we’re at:
Rajoelina - 60%
Ravalomananana - 13%
Randrianasoloniakio - 13%
Rajaonarimampianina - 5%

We don’t have properly local results yet, but what we do have indicates that the calls to boycott only had an impact in the capital and surrounding areas (i.e. Ravalomananana voting Merino areas). In the old Antananarivo region turnout has nearly halved, and Rajoelina has surged (i.e. has retained his vote whilst others stay at home) whilst elsewhere turnout has basically stayed the same.

This makes sense given the call to boycott was fairly late, and Madagascar has terrible connectivity. If not for the boycott, Rajoelina would almost certainly be facing a second round, but would be a heavy favourite for victory.

As for the integrity of the vote: it doesn’t look as though there was any ballot stuffing or doctoring of the results, but there are widespread and credible reports of bribery from the Rajoelina campaign.