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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Sept 22, 2023 17:46:00 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Tamworth by election. 19th October 2023
The 9 candidates as a reminder are:
Robert Bilcliff (UKIP)
Andy Cooper (Con)
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK)
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Sue Howarth (Green)
Peter George Longman (no descripton)
Ashlea Simon (Britain First)
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem)
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 9 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 7 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 7 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 19th October 2023.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
Have Fun.
DHAA
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Post by greenhert on Sept 22, 2023 18:50:44 GMT
My prediction:
Labour 46
Conservative 43
Reform UK 3.5
Liberal Democrats 3
Green 2.5
Peter Longman 0.8
Britain First 0.5
OMRLP 0.4
UKIP 0.3
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 22, 2023 19:14:17 GMT
| Con | 42.4% | | Lab | 41.3% | | Ref | 6.3% | | LD | 3.6% | | Grn | 3.5% | | UKIP | 1.3% | | BF | 0.7% | | MRLP | 0.6% | | ND | 0.3% |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 22, 2023 20:31:14 GMT
UKIP 0.5
Con 42.8
Ref 2.6
Lab 45.7
OMRLP 0.4
Grn 3.3
(-) 0.3
BrF 0.3
LD 4.1
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 22, 2023 20:47:32 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Tamworth by election. 19th October 2023 The 9 candidates as a reminder are: Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) Andy Cooper (Con) Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) Sue Howarth (Green) Peter George Longman (no descripton) Ashlea Simon (Britain First) Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) Rules 1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 9 candidates, to 1 decimal place. 2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%. 3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully. 4. You will be penalised 7 points for each candidate missing from your prediction. 5. You will be penalised 7 points for predicting the wrong winner. 6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 19th October 2023. 8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election. Have Fun. DHAA Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 2.0 Andy Cooper (Con) 43.4 Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) 4.0 Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) 41.1 Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.9 Sue Howarth (Green) 2.8 Peter George Longman (no descripton) 0.6 Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 1.1 Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 4.1 |
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,357 
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Post by weld on Sept 23, 2023 4:51:42 GMT
CON 44.1%
LAB 43.7%
REF 4.7%
LD 4.7%
GRN 2%
UKIP 0.3%
BF 0.2%
OMRLP 0.2%
ND 0.1%
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,249
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Post by peterl on Sept 23, 2023 20:29:53 GMT
LAB 45.2%
CON 42.9%
LD 4.9%
REF 4.2%
GRN 1.7%
UKIP 0.4%
BF 0.3%
OMRLP 0.2%
ND 0.2%
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Post by PeopleLikeWe on Sept 23, 2023 21:22:57 GMT
Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 0.3%
Andy Cooper (Con) 42.8%
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) 3.8%
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) 45.9%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3%
Sue Howarth (Green) 1.5%
Peter George Longman (no descripton) 0.2%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.1%
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 5.1%
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,341
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Post by YL on Oct 6, 2023 18:21:01 GMT
UKIP 0.6
Con 43.8
Reform UK 5.9
Lab 44.4
OMRLP 0.4
Green 2.1
Longman 0.1
Britain First 0.3
Lib Dem 2.4
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Post by kevinf on Oct 15, 2023 19:53:44 GMT
Lab 41
Con 39
LD 10
Green 5
Ref 3.5
Ukip 0.6
BF 0.5
OMRLP 0.3
Long,an 0.1
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Post by batman on Oct 17, 2023 8:41:21 GMT
Lab 42.2
C 41.3
RefUK 6.5
LD 4.7
Green 3.8
UKIP 0.7
Britain First 0.5
OMRLP 0.2
Longman 0.1
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Oct 17, 2023 10:46:31 GMT
Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 0.4
Andy Cooper (Con) 44.4
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) 1.8
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) 44.2
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.5
Sue Howarth (Green) 3.4
Peter George Longman (no descripton) 0.1
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.3
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 4.9
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,351
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 17, 2023 20:23:54 GMT
Lab 45.4
Con 41.2
RefUK 5.2
LD 4.2
Grn 2.4
UKIP 0.8
Longman 0.5
OMRLP 0.2
Britain First 0.1
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Oct 18, 2023 7:08:35 GMT
Lab 45.4 Con 41.2 RefUK 5.2 LD 4.2 Grn 2.4 UKIP 0.7 Longman 0.5 OMRLP 0.2 Britain First 0.1
This adds up to 99.9, so will incure a penalty, you may wish to adjust.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,351
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 18, 2023 8:51:12 GMT
All 12 predictions accepted. Adjusted... |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Oct 18, 2023 9:29:26 GMT
All 12 predictions accepted. Adjusted...
Adjustment noted.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 18, 2023 16:16:17 GMT
Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 1.8
Andy Cooper (Con) 33.9
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) 4
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) 51.6
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.8
Sue Howarth (Green) 4
Peter George Longman (no descripton) 0.5
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.4
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 3
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 583
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Post by nyx on Oct 18, 2023 19:52:15 GMT
Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 0.2
Andy Cooper (Con) 32.7
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) 4.5
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) 57.5
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3
Sue Howarth (Green) 2.3
Peter George Longman (no descripton) 0.1
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.3
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 2.1
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 18, 2023 23:09:25 GMT
Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 0.5
Andy Cooper (Con) 40.5
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) 5.2
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) 45.5
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3
Sue Howarth (Green) 2.5
Peter George Longman (no descripton) 0.2
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.2
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 5.1
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 19, 2023 8:21:56 GMT
Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 0.6%
Andy Cooper (Con) 42.0%
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) 6.7%
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) 43.5%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.2%
Sue Howarth (Green) 3.1%
Peter George Longman (no descripton) 0.1%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.4%
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 3.4%
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