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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Sept 12, 2023 20:08:06 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by election. 5th October 2023
The 14 candidates as a reminder are:
Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem)
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party)
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description)
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent)
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green)
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description)
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party)
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK)
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con)
Katy Loudon (SNP)
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC)
Michael Shanks (Lab)
David Stark (Reform UK)
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party)
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 14 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 7 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 7 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 5th October 2023.
7. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
Have Fun.
DHAA
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 12, 2023 20:31:25 GMT
Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 3.0
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 1.0
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.5
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 1.0
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 3.0
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.0
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 1.5
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.8
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 7.1
Katy Loudon (SNP) 35.3
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 3.7
Michael Shanks (Lab) 38.1
David Stark (Reform UK) 4.9
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 0.1
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,351
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 12, 2023 20:44:19 GMT
Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 3.0 Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 1.0 Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.5 Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 1.0 Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 3.0 Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.0 Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 1.5 Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.8 Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 7.1 Katy Loudon (SNP) 35.3 Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 3.7 Michael Shanks (Lab) 38.1 David Stark (Reform UK) 4.9 Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 0.1 You went for one of the comedy results, where the Labour majority is smaller than the Green vote - the apoplectic meltdown that would provoke throughout cybernattery would be something to see  |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,249 
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Post by peterl on Sept 12, 2023 21:06:17 GMT
Michael Shanks (Lab) 40.5
Katy Loudon (SNP) 30.3
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 8.7
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 6.4
Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 5.5
David Stark (Reform UK) 2.7
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 2.2
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 1.2
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 0.8
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 0.7
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.5
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.4
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 0.1
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.0
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,351
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 13, 2023 12:05:23 GMT
Lab 47.1
SNP 34.8
Con 7.2
LD 3.4
Grn 2.6
RefUK 1.7
ISP 0.9
TUSC 0.6
Daly 0.5
SFP 0.4
Cooke 0.3
SSP 0.2
Volt 0.2
Love 0.1
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Post by greenhert on Sept 14, 2023 18:24:51 GMT
My prediction is as follows:
Labour 45
SNP 33
Conservative 12
Liberal Democrats 2.8
Scottish Greens 2
TUSC 1.3
Scottish Family Party 1
Reform UK 0.8
Volt 0.6
Scottish Socialist 0.5
Independent (Daly) 0.4
Independence for Scotland 0.3
Garry Cooke (no description) 0.2
Prince Ankit Love (no description) 0.1
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 14, 2023 20:04:18 GMT
LAB 52% (+17.5)
SNP 33% (-11)
CON 6% (-9)
LIB 4% (-1)
GRN 3% (new)
RFM 0.6% (new)
SFP 0.5% (new)
ISP 0.3% (new)
SSP 0.2% (new)
Volt 0.1% (new)
Daly 0.1% (new)
TUSC 0.1% (new)
Cooke 0.1% (new)
Love 0.0% (new)
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Sept 16, 2023 18:57:38 GMT
My prediction is as follows: Labour 45 SNP 33 Conservative 12 Liberal Democrats 2.8 Scottish Greens 2 TUSC 1.4 Scottish Family Party 1 Reform UK 0.8 Volt 0.6 Scottish Socialist 0.5 Independent (Daly) 0.4 Independence for Scotland 0.25 Garry Cooke (no description) 0.2 Prince Ankit Love (no description) 0.05
This prediction has not yet been accepted as 2 predictions are to 2 deimal places not 1.
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 21,837
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Sept 16, 2023 19:53:56 GMT
Gloria Adebo (LD) 3.1
Bill Bonnar (SSP) 0.8
Garry Patrick Cooke (-) 0.2
Andrew Vincent Daly (Ind) 0.3
Cameron Eadie (Green) 3.6
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (-) 0.0
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 1.3
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.1
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 7.1
Katy Loudon (SNP) 34.1
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 0.5
Michael Shanks (Lab) 47.8
David Stark (RefUK) 0.8
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 0.3
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Post by greenhert on Sept 17, 2023 8:06:48 GMT
My prediction is as follows: Labour 45 SNP 33 Conservative 12 Liberal Democrats 2.8 Scottish Greens 2 TUSC 1.4 Scottish Family Party 1 Reform UK 0.8 Volt 0.6 Scottish Socialist 0.5 Independent (Daly) 0.4 Independence for Scotland 0.25 Garry Cooke (no description) 0.2 Prince Ankit Love (no description) 0.05
This prediction has not yet been accepted as 2 predictions are to 2 deimal places not 1.
I have now altered it so that all predictions are to 1 decimal place. |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Sept 17, 2023 11:11:41 GMT
This prediction has not yet been accepted as 2 predictions are to 2 deimal places not 1.
I have now altered it so that all predictions are to 1 decimal place.
and accepted
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Post by PeopleLikeWe on Sept 17, 2023 13:10:03 GMT
Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 3.1
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 0.5
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.0
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 0.3
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 1.8
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.0
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 0.7
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.5
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 13.3
Katy Loudon (SNP) 36.5
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 0.2
Michael Shanks (Lab) 41.4
David Stark (Reform UK) 1.5
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 0.2
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 22, 2023 19:25:14 GMT
| Lab | 42.1% | | SNP | 34.4% | | Con | 9.2% | | LD | 4.7% | | Grn | 3.6% | | SSP | 1.6% | | Ref | 1.5% | | SFP | 0.8% | | TUSC | 0.7% | | ISP | 0.5% | | Ind | 0.3% | | Volt | 0.2% | | ND | 0.2% | | ND | 0.2% |
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,357
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Post by weld on Sept 23, 2023 7:01:30 GMT
LAB 50%
SNP 30%
CON 10%
LD 6%
GRN 2%
REF 1%
SSP 0.2%
TUSC 0.2%
ISP 0.1%
SFP 0.1%
IND 0.1%
VOLT 0.1%
ND 0.1%
ND 0.1%
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,341
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Post by YL on Sept 24, 2023 8:55:47 GMT
Lab 49.1
SNP 35.8
Con 6.3
Ind for Scotland 2.9
Green 2.5
Lib Dem 1.1
Family 0.8
SSP 0.5
Volt 0.3
Reform UK 0.3
TUSC 0.1
Daly 0.1
Cooke 0.1
Emperor of India 0.1
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Oct 1, 2023 7:02:21 GMT
Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 3.9
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 0.4
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.2
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 0.3
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 2.8
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 0.2
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.1
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 9.9
Katy Loudon (SNP) 38.7
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 0.6
Michael Shanks (Lab) 39.8
David Stark (Reform UK) 1
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 2
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Post by batman on Oct 1, 2023 9:38:40 GMT
Lab 41.7
SNP 37.6
C 8.2
Green 2.9
LD 2.7
Ind for Scotland 2.1
RefUK 1.6
SSP 1.0
Ind Daly 0.6
TUSC 0.5
Ankit Love 0.4
SFP 0.3
Cooke 0.2
Volt UK (not this forum) 0.2
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Post by kevinf on Oct 2, 2023 13:47:21 GMT
Lab 40
SNP 24.5
Scot Greens 11
Con 10.5
LD 3.5
IndforScot 2.8
Reform 2
SSP 2
Ind Daly 2
Tusc 1
SFP 0.3
Volt 0.2
ND Cooke 0.1
ND India 0.1
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 4, 2023 8:05:12 GMT
All 13 entries have been accepted into the competition. Will you get a fourteenth entrant to equal the number of candidates in the actual election? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 4, 2023 8:30:02 GMT
All 13 entries have been accepted into the competition. Will you get a fourteenth entrant to equal the number of candidates in the actual election? Yes he will: Liberal Democrats - Gloria Adebo - 2.5 Scottish Socialist - Bill Bonnar - 1 No description - Garry Cooke - 0.9 Independent - Andrew Daly - 0.9 Scottish Green - Cameron Eadie - 3 No description - Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India - 0.1 Scottish Family - Niall Fraser - 0.5 Volt UK - Ewan Hoyle - 0.4 Conservative - Thomas Kerr - 8 SNP - Katy Loudon - 35.8 TUSC - Christopher Sermanni - 0.1 Labour - Michael Shanks - 44 Reform UK - David Stark - 2 ISP - Colette Walker - 0.8 Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith out of curiosity, what is best/easiest for you - listing candidates in alphabetical order, or in order of our prediction? Or does it not matter? |
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