Prediction Competition - September 2023

[robbienicoll]

There are currently 22 by-elections to be held during September.

- 1 by-election on 6 September (a Wednesday)
- 6 on 7 September
- 6 on 14 September
- 4 on 21 September
- 5 on 28 September

9 by-elections are for district councils, 7 last contested in May and 2 in 2022
5 are for unitary authorities, 2 last contested in May, 2 in 2022 and 1 in 2021
3 are for metropolitan boroughs, all last contested in May
2 are for county councils, both last contested in 2021
2 are for Scottish councils, both last contested in 2022
1 is for a London borough council last contested in 2022

Labour defend 10 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor, 7 a resignation and 1 a disqualification
Conservatives defend 6 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Greens defend 1 seat following a resignation (sitting as an Independent Green)
SNP defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independent for Herefordshire defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor

With all SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 22 candidates for the Conservatives, 21 Labour, 21 Liberal Democrats, 9 Greens, 3 Reform UK, 2 TUSC, 2 SNP and 2 Yorkshire Party along with 1 apiece for Scottish Greens, Alba, Women’s Equality Party, Scottish Libertarian Party, Liverpool Community Independents and Swale Independents together with 6 Independents contesting 5 elections – a total of 95 candidates for 22 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[batman]

SPELTHORNE, Ashford Town : Ind 28 C 26 Green 22 Lab 20 Ref UK 2 TUSC 2

BROADLAND, Thorpe St Andrew NW : Lab 44 C 43 LD 13

MANCHESTER, Brooklands : Lab 51  C 20  Green 19  RefUK 5 LD 5

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME, Audley : Lab 43 C 43 LD 10 Ind 4. Lab win

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME, Knutton : Lab 50 C 44 LD 6

SHROPSHIRE, Worfield : C 65 LD 22 Lab 13

[carlton43]

Sept 4, 2023 9:51:58 GMT batman said:

SPELTHORNE, Ashford Town : Ind 28 C 26 Green 22 Lab 20 Ref UK 2 TUSC 2

BROADLAND, Thorpe St Andrew NW : Lab 44 C 43 LD 13

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME, Audley : Lab 43 C 43 LD 10 Ind 4. Lab win

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME, Knutton : Lab 50 C 44 LD 6

SHROPSHIRE, Worfield : C 65 LD 22 Lab 13

Wow!   Tight lines fishing day!

[batman]

Well carlton it's what what passes for my logic tells me. Spelthorne is a toughie to predict to say the least, I reckon almost anything could happen (other than a Reform or TUSC win). I think Paul Couchman may already have lost more elections than I have, and that's saying a lot.   EDIT : I missed the Manchester one which I have now made a prediction for. No photofinish predicted there except for the minor placings.

[kevinf]

Spelthorne (as it’s early)
Green 32, Con 27, Ind 21, Lab 15, Reform 3.5, Tusc 1.5
(and agree with Batman, could go anywhere)

[Robert Waller]

SPELTHORNE, Ashford Town : Ind 15 C 31 Green 25 Lab 25 Ref UK 2.5 TUSC 1.5

[yellowperil]

Spelthorne, Ashford Town: Con 26, Lab 24, GP 18,Ind 28, RefUK 3, TUSC 1.

[johnloony]

Spelthorne: Ind 27 Lab 24 Grn 22 Con 19 Ref 5 TUSC 3
Broadland: Lab 50 Con 37 LD 13
Manchester: Lab 67 Grn 15 Con 8 LD 6 Ref 4
Newcastle-under-Lyme Audley: Lab 55 Con 31 LD 10 Ind 4
Newcastle-under-Lyme Knutton: Lab 62 Con 27 LD 11
Shropshire: Con 62 LD 23 Lab 15

[Tony Otim]

Spelthorne: Con 31.0; Grn 26.6; Lab 19.1; Enright 17.2; RefUK 4.9; TUSC 1.2

[corradino]

Spelthorne, Ashford Town: Ind 30, Con 29, Green 19, Lab 18, Reform 3.5, TUSC 0.5.

[andrewp]

This is a corker isn’t it

Spelthorne. Ind 27 Con 25, Lab 23 Green 21 , RefUK 2, TUSC 2

[iainbhx]

Spelthorne DC, Ashford Town: Con 26, Lab 25, Grn 23, Ind 21, Ref-UK 4, TUSC 1

[peterl]

Spelthorne DC, Ashford Town: Green 26, Con 25, Ind 23, Lab 22, Ref-UK 3, TUSC 1

[manchesterman]

SPELTHORNE, Ashford Town : Ind 26, Con 25, Green 25, Lab 20, Ref UK 3, TUSC 1

BROADLAND, Thorpe St Andrew NW : Lab 46, C 40, LD 14

MANCHESTER, Brooklands : Lab 60, Green 24, Con 10, RefUK 3, LD 3

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME, Audley : Lab 46, C 38, LD 12, Ind 4.

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME, Knutton : Lab 50, C 40, LD 10

SHROPSHIRE, Worfield : C 60, LD 30, Lab 10

[Toylyyev]

Maybe 

SPELTHORNE DC, Ashford Town:
Conservative 33.8, Labour 14.3, Green 33.9, Reform UK 3.5, TUSC 1, Independent 13.5.

[Richard Cromwell]

I will have to skip this week, unfortunately.

[kevinf]

Broadland
Lab 48, Con 28, LD 24
Manchester
Lab 53, Green 24, Con 14, LD 6, Ref 4
Newcastle Audley
Lab 42, Con 40, Ind 10, LD 8
Newcastle Knutson
Lab 46, Con 44, LD 10
Shropshire
Con 52, LD 40, Lab 8

[johnloony]

I have a feeling that the voters of Spelthorne will (collectively) vote wildly differently from how most of us are predicting, and it could be a big win and/or a big loss for either or whichever of the four main candidates.

[manchesterman]

Sept 6, 2023 11:56:11 GMT johnloony said:

I have a feeling that the voters of Spelthorne will (collectively) vote wildly differently from how most of us are predicting, and it could be a big win and/or a big loss for either or whichever of the four main candidates.

translation into football punditry-speak; "Well Brian, whichever team scores the most goals will probably end up winning" 

[batman]

Sept 6, 2023 11:56:11 GMT johnloony said:

I have a feeling that the voters of Spelthorne will (collectively) vote wildly differently from how most of us are predicting, and it could be a big win and/or a big loss for either or whichever of the four main candidates.

You could well be right, John. My prediction is on the rather unscientific basis of what I saw when I led a canvass in the ward a week & a bit ago. There was support for all 4 main candidates and it was pretty hard to discern who was winning. The only window bill I saw was for the Green candidate. The circumstances of the by-election are not particularly propitious for the Greens but they don't appear to be disastrous either. It is a very difficult contest to call & mostly we have to indulge in guesswork. It's much less straightforward than the last contests I worked in in the borough, which was one of the 2 Stanwell wards where it was fairly clear that Labour had a clear but not overwhelming lead over the Tories, and there were no other candidates at all, unusually (usually TUSC stand there at least)