Defining the "Red Wall"

[European Lefty]

Given that this phrase seems unlikely to die, I figured there may as well be a sensible definition of it. The basic premise is seats which voted Labour in 1983 but not 2019, as

a) the similarities (two big defeats; left-wing Labour leader up against a radical Tory one) mean the pattern seems genuinely worthy of discussion
b) I think it's similar to what the journalists were getting at but never managed to actually define
c) many of them do have some demographic/social/cultural links and similarities though this may be an accident.

I've identified 35 (using a wikipedia list for the 1983 results and comparing to 2019) though there may be errors/omissions. Seats with an asterisk* no longer exist and 2019 is a successor seat (a very likely source of any errors on my part). Seats in italics and struck out are marginals and clearly not red wall in any meaningful sense, they are included here but should probably be disregarded

1. Ashfield (Notts)
2. Barnsley W. & Penistone/Penistone & Stocksbridge* (S Yorks)
3. Bassetlaw (Notts)
4. Bishop Auckland (Co. Durham)
5. Blyth Valley (Northumberland)
6. Bolsover (Derbys)
7. Burnley (Lancs)
8. Carlisle (Cumbria)
9. Copeland (Cumbria)
10. Crewe & Nantwich (Cheshire)
11. North East Derbyshire (Derbys)
12. Donacster North (S Yorks)
13. Don Valley (S Yorks)
14. Dudley East (W Mids)
15. North West Durham (Co. Durham)
16. Great Grimsby (Lincs)
17. Heywood & Middleton (Lancs/Gt. Manchester)
18. Ipswich (Suffolk)
19. Leigh (Lancs/Gt. Manchester)
20. Mansfield (Notts)
21. Morley & Leeds S./Morely & Outwood* (W Yorks) (I have assumed Morley & Outwood as a successor)
22. Newcastle-Under-Lyme (Staffs)
23. Redcar (Cleveland/N. Yorks)
24. Rother Valley (S. Yorks)
25. Sedgefield (Co. Durham)
26. Stoke C./N./S. (Staffs)
27. Thurrock (Essex)
28. Walsall North (W Mids/Staffs)
29. Warley W./? (W Mids) (absolutely no idea what the successor is, but I'm confident it's not the current Warley?)
30. West Bromwich E./W. (W. Mids)
31. Wolverhampton NE (W. Mids/Staffs)
32. Workington (Cumbria)
32. Wrexham (Flintshire)

There are geographic concentration in the north East Midlands; the West Midlands Metro; South Yorkshire; and the North East. Many have undergone industrial decline, but generally a long time ago. Many although not all have also undergone demographic change that has made them susceptible to the Conservative Party. However equally it is in many ways a diverse set of seats. I haven't looked in detail at referendum results but I suspect all voted leave though with considerable variation in the %vote for leave.

I won't do any detail but I present it for your thoughts/critiques on both the list and the basic idea

[carlton43]

Aug 18, 2023 14:57:49 GMT European Lefty said:

Given that this phrase seems unlikely to die, I figured there may as well be a sensible definition of it. The basic premise is seats which voted Labour in 1983 but not 2019, as

a) the similarities (two big defeats; left-wing Labour leader up against a radical Tory one) mean the pattern seems genuinely worthy of discussion
b) I think it's similar to what the journalists were getting at but never managed to actually define
c) many of them do have some demographic/social/cultural links and similarities though this may be an accident.

I've identified 35 (using a wikipedia list for the 1983 results and comparing to 2019) though there may be errors/omissions. Seats with an asterisk* no longer exist and 2019 is a successor seat (a very likely source of any errors on my part). Seats in italics and struck out are marginals and clearly not red wall in any meaningful sense, they are included here but should probably be disregarded

1. Ashfield (Notts)
2. Barnsley W. & Penistone/Penistone & Stocksbridge* (S Yorks)
3. Bassetlaw (Notts)
4. Bishop Auckland (Co. Durham)
5. Blyth Valley (Northumberland)
6. Bolsover (Derbys)
7. Burnley (Lancs)
8. Carlisle (Cumbria)
9. Copeland (Cumbria)
10. Crewe & Nantwich (Cheshire)
11. North East Derbyshire (Derbys)
12. Donacster North (S Yorks)
13. Don Valley (S Yorks)
14. Dudley East (W Mids)
15. North West Durham (Co. Durham)
16. Great Grimsby (Lincs)
17. Heywood & Middleton (Lancs/Gt. Manchester)
18. Ipswich (Suffolk)
19. Leigh (Lancs/Gt. Manchester)
20. Mansfield (Notts)
21. Morley & Leeds S./Morely & Outwood* (W Yorks) (I have assumed Morley & Outwood as a successor)
22. Newcastle-Under-Lyme (Staffs)
23. Redcar (Cleveland/N. Yorks)
24. Rother Valley (S. Yorks)
25. Sedgefield (Co. Durham)
26. Stoke C./N./S. (Staffs)
27. Thurrock (Essex)
28. Walsall North (W Mids/Staffs)
29. Warley W./? (W Mids) (absolutely no idea what the successor is, but I'm confident it's not the current Warley?)
30. West Bromwich E./W. (W. Mids)
31. Wolverhampton NE (W. Mids/Staffs)
32. Workington (Cumbria)
32. Wrexham (Flintshire)

There are geographic concentration in the north East Midlands; the West Midlands Metro; South Yorkshire; and the North East. Many have undergone industrial decline, but generally a long time ago. Many although not all have also undergone demographic change that has made them susceptible to the Conservative Party. However equally it is in many ways a diverse set of seats. I haven't looked in detail at referendum results but I suspect all voted leave though with considerable variation in the %vote for leave.

I won't do any detail but I present it for your thoughts/critiques on both the list and the basic idea

That is very helpful and I think quite meaningful within the overall definition.  I agree the content and your deletions.  I can't think of obvious omissions or wrong inclusions.  It does pinpoit very meaningful change between those two elections and concentrates attention to those defined sub regions.  Next year will provde results that may refine thoughts further even if Labour recover many of them.  The size of the majority and the individual crash in the Conservative vote will be most instuctive.  Will they follow the national overall swing or have a different swing all of their own?

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

If it meant anything, it was a lazy term for "post-industrial England where the pints are cheap and delivering
any infrastructure improvement is expensive". There are gaps in the wall through accidents of
geography. It's misunderstood and badly defined because it was broadly defined by Londoners.

The list you provide are of a type, at first glance, because of economic recovery and racial demographics.

[jakegb]

Aug 18, 2023 14:57:49 GMT European Lefty said:

Given that this phrase seems unlikely to die, I figured there may as well be a sensible definition of it. The basic premise is seats which voted Labour in 1983 but not 2019, as

a) the similarities (two big defeats; left-wing Labour leader up against a radical Tory one) mean the pattern seems genuinely worthy of discussion
b) I think it's similar to what the journalists were getting at but never managed to actually define
c) many of them do have some demographic/social/cultural links and similarities though this may be an accident.

I've identified 35 (using a wikipedia list for the 1983 results and comparing to 2019) though there may be errors/omissions. Seats with an asterisk* no longer exist and 2019 is a successor seat (a very likely source of any errors on my part). Seats in italics and struck out are marginals and clearly not red wall in any meaningful sense, they are included here but should probably be disregarded

1. Ashfield (Notts)
2. Barnsley W. & Penistone/Penistone & Stocksbridge* (S Yorks)
3. Bassetlaw (Notts)
4. Bishop Auckland (Co. Durham)
5. Blyth Valley (Northumberland)
6. Bolsover (Derbys)
7. Burnley (Lancs)
8. Carlisle (Cumbria)
9. Copeland (Cumbria)
10. Crewe & Nantwich (Cheshire)
11. North East Derbyshire (Derbys)
12. Donacster North (S Yorks)
13. Don Valley (S Yorks)
14. Dudley East (W Mids)
15. North West Durham (Co. Durham)
16. Great Grimsby (Lincs)
17. Heywood & Middleton (Lancs/Gt. Manchester)
18. Ipswich (Suffolk)
19. Leigh (Lancs/Gt. Manchester)
20. Mansfield (Notts)
21. Morley & Leeds S./Morely & Outwood* (W Yorks) (I have assumed Morley & Outwood as a successor)
22. Newcastle-Under-Lyme (Staffs)
23. Redcar (Cleveland/N. Yorks)
24. Rother Valley (S. Yorks)
25. Sedgefield (Co. Durham)
26. Stoke C./N./S. (Staffs)
27. Thurrock (Essex)
28. Walsall North (W Mids/Staffs)
29. Warley W./? (W Mids) (absolutely no idea what the successor is, but I'm confident it's not the current Warley?)
30. West Bromwich E./W. (W. Mids)
31. Wolverhampton NE (W. Mids/Staffs)
32. Workington (Cumbria)
32. Wrexham (Flintshire)

There are geographic concentration in the north East Midlands; the West Midlands Metro; South Yorkshire; and the North East. Many have undergone industrial decline, but generally a long time ago. Many although not all have also undergone demographic change that has made them susceptible to the Conservative Party. However equally it is in many ways a diverse set of seats. I haven't looked in detail at referendum results but I suspect all voted leave though with considerable variation in the %vote for leave.

I won't do any detail but I present it for your thoughts/critiques on both the list and the basic idea

I think you have done a really decent job on a very ambiguous term - and you have rightly highlighted that some seats started their red wall journey prior to 19. E.g. Walsall North . 
Some others that I would include the definition (even if they currently have a Lab MP) include Wentworth and Dearne, Wansbeck, Doncaster Central.
And possibly Birmingham Northfield down in the Midlands. 

[jakegb]

Aug 18, 2023 15:23:07 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

If it meant anything, it was a lazy term for "post-industrial England where the pints are cheap and delivering
any infrastructure improvement is expensive". There are gaps in the wall through accidents of
geography. It's misunderstood and badly defined because it was broadly defined by Londoners.

The list you provide are of a type, at first glance, because of economic recovery and racial demographics.

I agree strongly that it is badly defined by many. 

On the subject of race, most  red wall seats - according to popular option - have a very high proportion of White British, yet there are exceptions. E.g. West Bromwich.

[Pete Whitehead]

West Bromwich West should be included too. I think the link between Barnsley West & Penistone and Penistone & Stocksbridge is tenuous. It contained a lot more of Barnsley and would I think still be a Labour seat now (I may try and reconstruct this and find out, also whther possibly Penistone & Stocksbridge might have been Tory in 1983. Similar issues wrt Leeds South & Morley/Morley & Outwood. Its a good list overall though.
(also Wrexham has never been in Flintshire)

[woollyliberal]

The day after election day, maps of the UK would be published with each seat coloured in blue, red or yellow. There was always a narrow band of red seats roughly from Rhyl to Leeds, south of which was a sea of blue. It was given the name "Red wall" as it appeared to hold back the blue tide. It took hold because journalists love short hand. A two word phrase that represents two sentences of description. People misuse it of course - any seat that has ever been Labour, from Southampton to Newcastle. The original coining referred to a geographical cluster of seats with Liverpool and Manchester in the middle of them.

[andrea]

Aug 18, 2023 14:57:49 GMT European Lefty said:

12. Donacster North (S Yorks)

Isn't this one still (just) Labour? I think the current Doncaster North is clearly the successor of the 1983 one. Yes, there have been changes but I don't think they especially favored Labour. It got Mexborough (which was in Don Valley in the 80s) and Sprotbrough (from Don Valley) and lost Thorne (to Don Valley)

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Aug 18, 2023 15:28:30 GMT jakegb said:

Aug 18, 2023 15:23:07 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

If it meant anything, it was a lazy term for "post-industrial England where the pints are cheap and delivering
any infrastructure improvement is expensive". There are gaps in the wall through accidents of
geography. It's misunderstood and badly defined because it was broadly defined by Londoners.

The list you provide are of a type, at first glance, because of economic recovery and racial demographics.

I agree strongly that it is badly defined by many. 

On the subject of race, most  red wall seats - according to popular option - have a very high proportion of White British, yet there are exceptions. E.g. West Bromwich.

Absolutely, because of the instant analysis that Brexit had been won by talking to a somewhat broad brush definition
of regional England as white men (mostly) turning to a "bloke down the pub" Tory party (by and large). 

I wouldn't imagine that Lancashire's cotton thread seats would be defined as "Red Wall" because of the higher than
average Asian population. 

[European Lefty]

Aug 18, 2023 15:41:07 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

West Bromwich West should be included too. I think the link between Barnsley West & Penistone and Penistone & Stocksbridge is tenuous. It contained a lot more of Barnsley and would I think still be a Labour seat now (I may try and reconstruct this and find out, also whther possibly Penistone & Stocksbridge might have been Tory in 1983. Similar issues wrt Leeds South & Morley/Morley & Outwood. Its a good list overall though.
(also Wrexham has never been in Flintshire)

West Brom East and West are listed together in the same line because it was quicker to type. I will bow to  yours and others' superior knowledge on 1983 seats and their successors 

[European Lefty]

Aug 18, 2023 15:45:09 GMT andrea said:

Aug 18, 2023 14:57:49 GMT European Lefty said:

12. Donacster North (S Yorks)

Isn't this one still (just) Labour? I think the current Doncaster North is clearly the successor of the 1983 one. Yes, there have been changes but I don't think they especially favored Labour. It got Mexborough (which was in Don Valley in the 80s) and Sprotbrough (from Don Valley) and lost Thorne (to Don Valley)

Yes of course it is. D'oh!

[batman]

The Red Wall is generally assumed to be only applying to seats gained by the Tories in 2019, but I think it's perfectly OK to include the seats also gained against the national swing in 2017, plus Copeland, as they share similar characteristics. I think it's a good list. Some seats don't qualify on the basis of the criteria used, but have significant similarities - Plymouth Devonport/Moor View comes to mind for example - but it's easier just to stick with the ones you've got. Well done for omitting the Bury seats which are often lazily included (although they were Tory in 1983 so you weren't going to include them anyway)

[European Lefty]

Aug 18, 2023 15:48:07 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Aug 18, 2023 15:28:30 GMT jakegb said:

I agree strongly that it is badly defined by many. 

On the subject of race, most  red wall seats - according to popular option - have a very high proportion of White British, yet there are exceptions. E.g. West Bromwich.

Absolutely, because of the instant analysis that Brexit had been won by talking to a somewhat broad brush definition
of regional England as white men (mostly) turning to a "bloke down the pub" Tory party (by and large). 

I wouldn't imagine that Lancashire's cotton thread seats would be defined as "Red Wall" because of the higher than
average Asian population. 

But this is exactly why I have sought to give it an actual definition with actual defined parameters 

[European Lefty]

Aug 18, 2023 16:26:45 GMT batman said:

The Red Wall is generally assumed to be only applying to seats gained by the Tories in 2019, but I think it's perfectly OK to include the seats also gained against the national swing in 2017, plus Copeland, as they share similar characteristics. I think it's a good list. Some seats don't qualify on the basis of the criteria used, but have significant similarities - Plymouth Devonport/Moor View comes to mind for example - but it's easier just to stick with the ones you've got. Well done for omitting the Bury seats which are often lazily included (although they were Tory in 1983 so you weren't going to include them anyway)

I think one of the problems has been that many attempts to define it have used criteria that themselves have no strong definition. Part of the reason for using the definition I did is that it is both simple and definitive, even if some modification is then necessary.

Some other seats such as Barrow & Furness or Hyndburn share similar characteristics but did actually vote Tory in '83 according to the list I was using 

[YL]

Aug 18, 2023 15:41:07 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

West Bromwich West should be included too. I think the link between Barnsley West & Penistone and Penistone & Stocksbridge is tenuous. It contained a lot more of Barnsley and would I think still be a Labour seat now (I may try and reconstruct this and find out, also whther possibly Penistone & Stocksbridge might have been Tory in 1983. Similar issues wrt Leeds South & Morley/Morley & Outwood. Its a good list overall though.
(also Wrexham has never been in Flintshire)

Several years ago I did some simplistic notional calculations for Penistone & Stocksbridge in 1983 and came to the conclusion that it was fairly close three ways (Sheffield Hillsborough was in reality, so this is not surprising) but that the Tories were probably third and it may actually have voted for the Alliance.

[batman]

Aug 18, 2023 18:19:22 GMT European Lefty said:

Aug 18, 2023 16:26:45 GMT batman said:

The Red Wall is generally assumed to be only applying to seats gained by the Tories in 2019, but I think it's perfectly OK to include the seats also gained against the national swing in 2017, plus Copeland, as they share similar characteristics. I think it's a good list. Some seats don't qualify on the basis of the criteria used, but have significant similarities - Plymouth Devonport/Moor View comes to mind for example - but it's easier just to stick with the ones you've got. Well done for omitting the Bury seats which are often lazily included (although they were Tory in 1983 so you weren't going to include them anyway)

I think one of the problems has been that many attempts to define it have used criteria that themselves have no strong definition. Part of the reason for using the definition I did is that it is both simple and definitive, even if some modification is then necessary.

Some other seats such as Barrow & Furness or Hyndburn share similar characteristics but did actually vote Tory in '83 according to the list I was using 

in the case of Hyndburn by the towering sum of 21 votes.

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 18, 2023 18:35:00 GMT YL said:

Aug 18, 2023 15:41:07 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

West Bromwich West should be included too. I think the link between Barnsley West & Penistone and Penistone & Stocksbridge is tenuous. It contained a lot more of Barnsley and would I think still be a Labour seat now (I may try and reconstruct this and find out, also whther possibly Penistone & Stocksbridge might have been Tory in 1983. Similar issues wrt Leeds South & Morley/Morley & Outwood. Its a good list overall though.
(also Wrexham has never been in Flintshire)

Several years ago I did some simplistic notional calculations for Penistone & Stocksbridge in 1983 and came to the conclusion that it was fairly close three ways (Sheffield Hillsborough was in reality, so this is not surprising) but that the Tories were probably third and it may actually have voted for the Alliance.

The result I come out with matches with that

All 17,608 34.6%
Lab 17,184 33.8%
Con 16,069 31.6%

Lots of caveats to that though. I've added the results from the Chapel Green, Stocksbridge and South Wortley wards of Sheffield and the Penistones and Dodsworth from Barnsley (as now). But the 1983 Dodsworth included areas which are now in Darfield West and therefore not in the constituency, while much of the old South Wortley is in Stannington ward now. It looks like a fair chunk of East Ecclesfield would have been in Brightside then (Firth Park ward I think) so those may all balance out a bit.

[andrewteale]

I did a comparison between European Lefty's list and the list of the 40 seats in the original/canonical Red Wall, as per James Kanagasooriam. He restricted the list to seats which voted Labour in 2017 because its purpose was to identify good Conservative targets in the 2019 election - that's probably the only reason places like Walsall North and NE Derbyshire were excluded.

On both lists:

1. Ashfield (Notts)
2. Barnsley W. & Penistone/Penistone & Stocksbridge* (S Yorks)
3. Bassetlaw (Notts)
4. Bishop Auckland (Co. Durham)
6. Bolsover (Derbys)
7. Burnley (Lancs)
13. Don Valley (S Yorks)
15. North West Durham (Co. Durham)
16. Great Grimsby (Lincs)
17. Heywood & Middleton (Lancs/Gt. Manchester)
22. Newcastle-Under-Lyme (Staffs)
24. Rother Valley (S. Yorks)
25. Sedgefield (Co. Durham)
26A-B. Stoke C./N. (Staffs)
30A-B. West Bromwich E./W. (W. Mids)
31. Wolverhampton NE (W. Mids/Staffs)

14. Dudley East (W Mids) counts if Dudley North is the successor seat.

Canonical Red Wall but not on EL's list (several of these seats stayed Labour in 2019):

Batley and Spen
Blackpool South
Birmingham Northfield
Bolton North East
Bradford South
Bury South (sorry batman)
Chesterfield
Chorley
Coventry North West
Coventry South
Darlington
Gedling
Halifax
Hemsworth
Hyndburn
Newcastle upon Tyne North
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Scunthorpe
Tynemouth
Wakefield
Wirral South

On EL's list but not Canonical Red Wall

5. Blyth Valley (Northumberland)
[8. Carlisle (Cumbria)]
9. Copeland (Cumbria)
[10. Crewe & Nantwich (Cheshire)]
11. North East Derbyshire (Derbys)
[12. Donacster North (S Yorks)]
[18. Ipswich (Suffolk)]
19. Leigh (Lancs/Gt. Manchester)
20. Mansfield (Notts)
[21. Morley & Leeds S./Morely & Outwood* (W Yorks) (I have assumed Morley & Outwood as a successor)]
23. Redcar (Cleveland/N. Yorks)
26C. Stoke S. (Staffs)
[27. Thurrock (Essex)]
28. Walsall North (W Mids/Staffs)
29. Warley W./? (W Mids) (absolutely no idea what the successor is, but I'm confident it's not the current Warley?)
32. Workington (Cumbria)
32. Wrexham (Flintshire)

[Pete Whitehead]

That shows EL's list to be superior I think. Most of the 'canonical' list which were not in his list are not red wall IMO - exceptions are Scunthorpe (even though the predecessor seat was Conservative in 1983), Hemsworth and Wakefield (which I think should be on EL's list but was maybe excluded because its been lost since the election). On the third list I think almost all should be included but definitely not Ipswich

[batman]

Can't imagine how Workington could be excluded from any Red Wall list. Apart from one by-election, it was Labour throughout living memory until 2019 (yes, I know the boundaries were drawn more in favour of Labour in the past) and it has a mining heritage. Blyth Valley would be a very odd exclusion too.