clive
Non-Aligned
Posts: 11
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Surrey
May 5, 2024 11:42:46 GMT
Post by clive on May 5, 2024 11:42:46 GMT
Hmm if the Tories had not changed the System they would have lost here and possibly also in Dorset and Hertfordshire to the Lib Dems
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Surrey
May 12, 2024 15:51:01 GMT
Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 12, 2024 15:51:01 GMT
In 2021 55.9% of votes for lower-placed candidates transferred and they broke almost exactly evenly, with the Tories winning them 50.03%-49.97%.
If we assume that the same proportion of votes would have transferred in an SV contest this time, then 47440 votes would have been up for grabs in the second round. The LDs would have needed about 65% of those to take this.
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Post by bigfatron on May 16, 2024 8:23:41 GMT
In 2021 55.9% of votes for lower-placed candidates transferred and they broke almost exactly evenly, with the Tories winning them 50.03%-49.97%. If we assume that the same proportion of votes would have transferred in an SV contest this time, then 47440 votes would have been up for grabs in the second round. The LDs would have needed about 65% of those to take this. Fair, but last time the largest lower placed candidate was the 'Zero-tolerance policing ex police commissioner', who was clearly appealing to the otherwise Tory vote and probably fed most of the transfers to the Tories. The absence of this candidate in 2024 implies much more of the lower-placed vote was centre/left of centre and would have skewed much more to the Lib Dems than in 2021. I reckon it would have been very close, too close to call.
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Surrey
May 16, 2024 8:45:40 GMT
Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 16, 2024 8:45:40 GMT
I agree. I also think that judging from the transfer patterns in the Home Counties in 2021, 65% wasn't that hard a bar to clear then and is likely much easier now.
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