peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,270
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Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 14:11:32 GMT
West Devon
SOSA HERNANDEZ, Alison Selina Conservative Candidate 4,822 STEEL, Daniel John Labour and Co-operative Party 2,858 LODGE, Stephen Robert Liberal Democrats 2,162
Turnout 22.6%
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,270
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Post by peterl on May 3, 2024 14:33:02 GMT
Plymouth
STEEL, Daniel John Labour and Co-operative Party 28,645 SOSA HERNANDEZ, Alison Selina Conservative Candidate 23,346 LODGE, Stephen Robert Liberal Democrats 8,073
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Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 10:59:47 GMT
Con 131,764 Lab 107,897 LD 64,790
Con 43.3% Lab 35.4% LD 21.3%
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,326
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 5, 2024 20:13:37 GMT
Con 131,764 Lab 107,897 LD 64,790 Con 43.3% Lab 35.4% LD 21.3% The constituency breakdown would be very interesting, if anybody has it.
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Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 20:26:05 GMT
Con 131,764 Lab 107,897 LD 64,790 Con 43.3% Lab 35.4% LD 21.3% The constituency breakdown would be very interesting, if anybody has it. In terms of councils Lab were ahead in Exeter and Plymouth, Con everywhere else Cornwall. Con 43.8% Lab 34.8% LD 21.4% East Devon Con 49.3% Lab 25.9% LD 24.8% Exeter Lab 50.1% Con 31.1% LD 18.8% Isles of Scilly Con 49.6% Lab 28.5% LD 21.9% Mid Devon Con 44.8% LD 30.7% Lab 24.5% North Devon Con 48.2% LD 29.2% Lab 22.6% Plymouth Lab 47.7% Con 38.9% LD 13.4% South Hams Con 44.4% Lab 30.5% LD 25.1% Teignbridge Con 44.8% Lab 31.7% LD 23.5% Torbay Con 53,1% LD 24.2% Lab 22.7% Torridge Con 48.4% Lab 26.3% LD 25.3% West Devon Con 49% Lab 29% LD 22% www.plymouth.gov.uk/police-and-crime-commissioner-election-results
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Inactivist
Posts: 5,551
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Post by Foggy on May 5, 2024 21:02:08 GMT
Con 131,764 Lab 107,897 LD 64,790 Con 43.3% Lab 35.4% LD 21.3% The constituency breakdown would be very interesting, if anybody has it. These new posts tend to be counted by district or UA (2016 & 2021 were exceptions here in Wales because they took place the same day as a Senedd election so it was easier to tally by constituency). You can probably make educated guesses for Devon's 12 and a half* seats based on Andrewp's figures above but since Cornwall lost its districts in 2009, trying to extrapolate trends by Westminster seat would be a shot in the dark. * Should be 13 but let's no go over the BCE's failings in the SW again
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Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 21:12:58 GMT
The constituency breakdown would be very interesting, if anybody has it. These new posts tend to be counted by district or UA (2016 & 2021 were exceptions here in Wales because they took place the same day as a Senedd election so it was easier to tally by constituency). You can probably make educated guesses for Devon's 12 and a half* seats based on Andrewp's figures above but since Cornwall lost its districts in 2009, trying to extrapolate trends by Westminster seat would be a shot in the dark. * Should be 13 but let's no go over the BCE's failings in the SW againI reckon on those numbers in Devon, on the current parliamentary boundaries Labour carry Exeter and both Plymouth seats, the Tories everywhere else. Cornwall is interesting - if you purely assign the votes to the 6 constituencies in proportion to the votes cast at the last general election, I get the LDs narrowly ahead in St Ives and Lab ahead in Truro & Falmouth and narrowly in Camborne & Redruth, with the Conservatives ahead in the other 3.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Inactivist
Posts: 5,551
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Post by Foggy on May 5, 2024 21:18:49 GMT
If St Ives is ultra-tight, have you double checked you remembered to add the figures from the Scillies? That could potentially alter the outcome.
I think the new Exeter East & Exmouth seat would be on a knife edge but otherwise agree, comfortable Tory holds everywhere else.
Of course aside from a much higher turnout, the big difference at the GE will presumably be more than 3 candidates to choose from in each constituency.
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Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 21:23:14 GMT
If St Ives is ultra-tight, have you double checked you remembered to add the figures from the Scillies? That could potentially alter the outcome. I think the new Exeter East & Exmouth seat would be on a knife edge but otherwise agree, comfortable Tory holds everywhere else. Of course aside from a much higher turnout, the big difference at the GE will presumably be more than 3 candidates to choose from in each constituency. Yes including Scilly, I have the LDs ahead by about 500 in St Ives.
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Post by heslingtonian on May 6, 2024 19:22:18 GMT
Torbay SOSA HERNANDEZ Alison Selina CONSERVATIVE PARTY 10,801 LODGE Stephen Robert LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 4,920 STEEL Daniel John LABOUR PARTY and co-operative party 4,603 I suspect Torbay will probably stay Conservative at the General Election. It appears to have got a lot more Conservative since Adrian Sanders stepped back.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 12, 2024 15:22:31 GMT
In 2021, 50.9% of the vote transferred, and it favour Labour over the Tories 62.7%-37.3%. If we assume the same proportions, then under SV this year we might have expected something like this:
Con 131764 + 12301 = 144065 (52.8%) Lab 107897 + 20677 = 128574 (47.2%)
In practice, with three candidates that transfer rate looks too low to me, but probably not enough to make a difference - you'd need to assume about 75% of votes transferring and Labour winning LD transfers 3:1 to get a draw.
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