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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 13:37:14 GMT
Thought it might be interesting to look at how things might have worked out under SV. Last time, 59521 votes were cast for candidates outside the top two, of which 44901 were transferred to a candidate in the top 2. Of these 66.6% transferred to the Labour candidate and 33.4% to the Conservative candidate. Assuming equivalent rates of transfer of votes and transfer patterns*, this produces the following result in a putative 2024 second round:
Lab 58804 + 21093 = 79897 (52.2%) Con 62588 + 10579 = 73167 (47.8%)
*No, neither of these are particularly safe assumptions, but as this is solely a hypothetical I can put up with some ropey assumptions.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,005
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Post by graham on May 3, 2024 19:00:35 GMT
Labour will probably be disappointed with the results from Cambridge and Peterborough , I suspect given that they had the benefit of higher Local Election turnouts. In the more rural areas many Labour inclined voters have probably got into the habit of voting LD tactically - and effectively misdirected themselves this time. South Cambridgeshire figures are interesting and somewhat run counter to the line that this is a Tory -LD matginal. On these figures, it seems to be a 3-way contest.
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Post by heslingtonian on May 3, 2024 19:25:30 GMT
If you want a shock Conservative hold at the General Election, I nominate Peterborough. Labour still appear very weak there.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 20:06:19 GMT
If you want a shock Conservative hold at the General Election, I nominate Peterborough. Labour still appear very weak there. Important to distinguish between the Peterborough constituency and the Peterborough local authority - we'll certainly have carried the former given how close the latter was. In generally we also usually tend to perform better in general than local elections in Peterborough (probably because the local party being a basketcase matters less when turnout is higher) though that's not an iron rule.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on May 3, 2024 20:37:08 GMT
So when Paul Bristow said "we outpolled Labour in Peterborough" he meant the wider council area and not actually just his constituency??
Tut tut.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 3, 2024 20:58:05 GMT
So when Paul Bristow said "we outpolled Labour in Peterborough" he meant the wider council area and not actually just his constituency?? Tut tut. To be fair, Peterborough is one of the most misleadingly named constituencies. 71% of "North West Cambridgeshire" is in the Peterborough local authority, reaching to the edge of Peterborough town centre- and a further 11% of it is Yaxley (de facto a suburb of Peterborough). "Peterborough" should be called Peterborough North, and "North West Cambridgeshire" should be called Peterborough South.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 3, 2024 23:33:04 GMT
I think in the most recent Boundary Review I proposed the successor seat to NW Cambridgeshire be called N Hunts, since that's what it more or less is (plus a slither of the Soke).
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Post by johnloony on May 4, 2024 1:29:52 GMT
I think in the most recent Boundary Review I proposed the successor seat to NW Cambridgeshire be called N Hunts, since that's what it more or less is (plus a slither of the Soke). You should have suggested some version of “…and Slithery Soke” in the name as well
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Post by jm on May 5, 2024 20:29:51 GMT
Results by district
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Post by casualobserver on May 11, 2024 0:40:23 GMT
So when Paul Bristow said "we outpolled Labour in Peterborough" he meant the wider council area and not actually just his constituency?? Tut tut. No. I checked and in the wards which make up the Peterborough Constituency (approximately, because of constituency boundary changes) the Conservative vote in the City Council elections in the new Peterborough Constituency was about 600 votes ahead of the Labour vote in those wards. I checked Bristow’s twitter feed. He’s claiming the Conservative vote was 403 more than the Labour vote within the new Peterborough Constituency. I suppose it depends how you treat the one ward which is significantly split within/without the new constituency and how you treat the ward with two vacancies, two Conservative candidates but only one Labour candidate. So while you can argue about the detailed numbers, it looks as if Bristow’s claim is, very surprisingly, true.
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