ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
|
Post by ricmk on May 4, 2024 21:54:26 GMT
Searched, and although the source isn't 100% firm it seems to be Werneth ward in Oldham, which didn't have a Labour candidate at ward level.
|
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,396
|
Post by bsjmcr on May 4, 2024 22:06:09 GMT
Lucy Powell has claimed Burnham won every ward except one. There's only one possible question coming next - does anyone know who the rebel ward are? And how many extra blocks of flats they will now be 'encouraged' to take? Yes I also saw the tweet saying it was Oldham Werneth as there was no Labour council candidate there (why that is I don’t know and why would that would be a reason not to vote Burnham given the lack of a Galloway-esque Indy on the GM ballot paper unlike in Birmingham). I don’t know who would have won there. Still, ward and borough data would be handy! Despite the slight fall in vote share I think it is actually an increased majority and I still think he got a higher vote share than in 2017. Incidentally Steve Rotherham got a higher vote share than Andy for the first time though the turnout was dismal there. I bet the Reform candidate would have wished he’d stayed with the Tories given he didn’t even manage to beat Buckley and though Laura Evans was humiliated again she still managed to come second overall though would be interesting to see if there were any boroughs she didn’t even come second in. For example, in West Yorkshire I think I recall the Tory coming third in Kirklees behind the Greens (though it was the Green candidate home borough and they had picked up a second seat on the council).
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 4, 2024 22:20:35 GMT
Laura Evans is a crap candidate but she stood up at short notice to give voters an option.
I think that deserves respect.
|
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,396
|
Post by bsjmcr on May 4, 2024 22:47:36 GMT
Laura Evans is a crap candidate but she stood up at short notice to give voters an option. I think that deserves respect. I’ll give her that especially after not giving up and going for ‘unwinnable’ seats after not gaining what should have been a fairly winnable seat in 2019. Did she (unsuccessfully) put her hat in the ring for Alty & SW? The only other GM seat with some prospect would be Bolton West if there is a last minute resignation from Chris Green (not implausible given the current trend).
|
|
|
Post by lancastrian on May 5, 2024 0:20:49 GMT
|
|
|
Post by where2travel on May 5, 2024 0:49:16 GMT
Besides Burnham everywhere, the Independent in Oldham is one of only three to get over 10K votes in any borough. The other two being the Greens in Manchester and the Tories in Trafford (and neither of those by very much as well).
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on May 5, 2024 4:44:41 GMT
Laura Evans is a crap candidate but she stood up at short notice to give voters an option. I think that deserves respect. Did she (unsuccessfully) put her hat in the ring for Alty & SW? Yes. The growing indications of a divide among Trafford Tories seems to have roots in this, from what I can make out.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 5, 2024 4:46:36 GMT
Not having followed this election at all previously (given how boring and predictable it is) I assumed when I saw this that there was some kind of Gallowayite Independent candidate but I see there was not and this was the excellent Nick Buckley. Is it suggested that he did well enough to win an individual ward in this borough? If so I highly doubt it was Werneth!
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,819
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on May 5, 2024 10:48:28 GMT
Why was there no Labour council candidate in Werneth anyway?
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
|
Post by andrea on May 5, 2024 11:20:24 GMT
Why was there no Labour council candidate in Werneth anyway? The Labour Cllr defected on April 6th. Probably not enough time to arrange a new candidate as apparently many branch officers also left over Gaza.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,369
|
Post by YL on May 6, 2024 17:19:23 GMT
Not having followed this election at all previously (given how boring and predictable it is) I assumed when I saw this that there was some kind of Gallowayite Independent candidate but I see there was not and this was the excellent Nick Buckley. Is it suggested that he did well enough to win an individual ward in this borough? If so I highly doubt it was Werneth! I think there’s some evidence that the Independent votes in the council elections also had a tendency to vote Independent in the mayoral elections both here and in W Yorks, even though the Independents concerned were not ideologically similar.
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on May 6, 2024 17:52:55 GMT
Not having followed this election at all previously (given how boring and predictable it is) I assumed when I saw this that there was some kind of Gallowayite Independent candidate but I see there was not and this was the excellent Nick Buckley. Is it suggested that he did well enough to win an individual ward in this borough? If so I highly doubt it was Werneth! I think there’s some evidence that the Independent votes in the council elections also had a tendency to vote Independent in the mayoral elections both here and in W Yorks, even though the Independents concerned were not ideologically similar. We'll be able to see that clearly in GM, when we get the ward-level data. Is W Yorks also providing a ward breakdown?
|
|
wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,263
|
Post by wallington on May 12, 2024 9:12:06 GMT
I would be happy if we could have at least got borough breakdowns in London. sigh.
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on May 12, 2024 10:24:03 GMT
Agents have been sent a PDF(!) of ward breakdown. Presumably a spreadsheet copy is imminent. Here's some info, however: Highest/Lowest wards
Labour:
Highest: Chorlton (MCR) 83%, Didsbury East (MCR), Heatons South (SPT), Heatons North (SPT), Old Moat, Chorlton Park, Didsbury West, Picadilly (all those 4 MCR), Edgeley (SPT) , Hulme (MCR) 76%
Lowest: Werneth 31%, St Mary's, Alexandra, Waterhead (all OLD), Halliwell (BOL), Coldhurst (OLD), Hale Barns & Timperley South (TRF), Hollinwood (OLD), Castleton (ROC), Rumworth (BOL) 47%
Conservative:
Highest: Bowdon (TRF) 32%, Hale Barns & Timperley South (TRF), Kersal & Broughton Park (SAL), Broadheath (TRF), Manor (TRF), Bury West (BUR), North Manor (BUR), Tottington (BUR), Hale (TRF), Heaton Lostock & Chew Moor (BOL) 23%
Lowest: Levenshulme (MCR) 1%, Chorlton (MCR), St Mary's (OLD), Ancoats & Beswick (MCR), Whalley Range (MCR), Alexandrea (OLD), Chorlton Park (MCR), Old Moat (MCR), Central Rochdale (ROC) 3%. Another 26 wards were below 5%.
Ind:
Highest: Werneth 41%, St Mary's, Alexandra, Medlock Vale, Coldhurst (all OLD), Ince (WIG), Waterhead (OLD), Rumworth (ROC), Royton Souuth (OLD), Atherton North (WIG) 18%. Another 37 wards where he was above 10%
Lowest: Didsbury West (MCR), Hale, Bowdon, Hale Barns & Timperley South (all TRF), Piccadilly (MRC), Chorlton (MCR), Ordsall (SAL), Withington (MAN), Ancoats & Beswick (MAN), Quays (SAL) - all except the last two in the range 1%-2%
Reform:
Highest: Tonge with the Haulgh (BOL) 17%, Farnworth South (BOL), Worsley Mesnes (WIG), North Heywood (ROC), Hindley Green (WIG), Kearsley (BOL), Abram (WIG), Radcliffe East (BUR), St James (OLD), Winstanley (WIG) 14%
Lowest: Moss Side (MCR), Old Trafford (TRF), Piccadilly, Chorlton, Whalley Range, Withington, Rusholme, Hulme, Didsbury West (all MCR), Quays (Salford) - all except the last two in the range 1%-2%
Green:
Highest: Halliwell (BOL) 36%, Woodhouse Park (MCR), Rumworth (BOL), Great Lever (BOL), Hollinwood (OLD), Old Trafford (TRF), St Peter's (Tameside), Milkstone and Deeplish (ROC), Rusholme (MAN), Werneth (OLD) 16%.
Lowest: Orrell (WIG), Hindley Green (WIG), Bradshaw (BOL), Westhoughton North & Hunger (BOL), Worsley Mesnes (WIG), Golborne and Lowton West (WIG), Westhoughton South (BOL), Bramhall South and Woodford (SPT), Offerton (SPT). All within rounding to 2%.
Lib Dem:
Highest: Smallbridge and Firgrove (ROC) 20%, Saddleworth West and Lees (OLD), Offerton (SPT), Central Rochdale (ROC), Spotland and Falinge (ROC), Heald Green, Hazel Grove, Bredbury Green and Romiley (all SPT), Milkstone and Deeplish (ROC), Cheadle East and Cheadle Hulme North (SPT) 12%
Lowest: Atherton South and Lilford (WIG), Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North (WIG), Bowdon (TRF), Pilkington Park (BUR), Ashton (WIG), Astley (WIG, Unsworth (BUR), Lowton East (WIG), East Middleton (ROC), Flixton (TRF). All within rounding to 1%.
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on May 12, 2024 11:33:07 GMT
Unlike last time, Burnham did not win in every ward. The independent was ahead by 10% in Werneth (Oldham). He was also under 10% behind Burnham in two other Oldham wards, St Mary's and Alexandra. Smallest Lab-Con margins: Hale Barns & Timperley South (TRF) 15%, Bowdon (TRF), Kersal and Broughton Park (SAL) 23%, Tottington (BUR), Werneth (OLD), Bury West (BUR), Heaton Lostock and Chew Moor (BOL), Manor (TRF), Broadheath (TRF), St James (OLD) 33% Largest Lab-Con margins: Chorlton 81%, Old Moat, Didsbury East, Chorlton Park, Didsbury West (all MCR), Heatons South (SPT), Ancoats and Beswick(MCR), Heatons North (SPT), Edgeley (SPT), Hulme (MCR) 73% Wards with Ind in 2nd place:Oldham: St Mary's, Alexandra, Medlock Vale, Coldhurst, Waterhead, Royton South, Failsworth West, Shaw, St James, Crompton, Failsworth East, Chadderton South (from smallest Lab majority to largest)
Wigan: Ince, Atherton North, Atherton South and Lilford, Tyldesley and Mosley Common, Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North
Rochdale: Castleton, North Middleton, West Middleton, East Middleton, Spotland and Falinge, South Middleton, Balderstone and Kirkholt
Bury: Bury East, Redvales
Manchester: Crumpsall, Higher Blackley
Tameside: Denton West
Wards with Reform in 2nd place:
Bolton: Tonge with the Haulgh, Farnworth South, Farnworth North, Kearsley, Westhoughton South, Radcliffe West
Bury: Radcliffe East, Besses
Rochdale: North Heywood, Hopwood Hall, Milnrow & Newhey, West Heywood
Tameside: Dukinfield & Stalybridge, Denton North East, Hyde Newton, Stalybridge North, Droylsden West, Dukinfield, Denton South, Droylsden East, Longdendale
Wigan: Hindley Green, Abram, Worsley Mesnes, Shevington with Lower Ground & Moor, Hindley, Winstanley, Wigan Central, Leigh West, Pemberton, Leigh Central & Higher Folds, Leigh South, Wigan West, Ashton, Golborne and Lowton West, Douglas,
Manchester: Charlestown, Miles Platting and Newton Heath, Gorton and Abbey Hey, Brooklands
Salford: Pendlebury and Clifton, Walkden North, Little Hulton, Higher Irlam and Peel Green, Claremont
Stockport: Brinnington and Stockport Central, Reddish North, Davenport and Cale Green, Edgeley
Wards with Green in 2nd place:
Bolton: Halliwell, Rumworth, Great Lever, Queens Park & Central
Oldham: Hollinwood
Rochdale: Milkstone and Deeplish, Kingsway
Tameside: St Peter's, Ashton St Michael's, Ashton Waterloo
Manchester: Woodhouse Park, Rusholme, Cheetham, Longsight, Burnage, Moss Side, Whalley Range, Fallowfield, Levenshulme, Withington, Hulme, Harpurhey, Piccadilly, Northernden, Deansgate, Chorlton Park, Clayton and Openshaw, Old Moat, Didsbury East, Chorlton
Bury: Moorside
Trafford: Old Trafford, Longford, Gorse Hill & Cornbrook
Salford: Weaste & Seedley, Ordsall, Blackfriars and Trinity
Stockport: Reddish South, Heatons North
Wards with Lib Dems in 2nd place:
Oldham: Saddleworth West and Lees
Rochdale: Central Rochdale, Spotland and Falinge
Stockport: Heald Green, Hazel Grove, Offerton, Bredbury Green and Romiley, Bredbury and Woodley, Cheadle East & Cheadle Hulme North, Manor
Bury: Holyrood Manchester: Ancoats & Beswick, Didsbury West
|
|
|
Post by where2travel on May 12, 2024 13:42:22 GMT
It's a long time now since the two Heatons were Tory strongholds, and the change over time has been clearly in one direction for them. However, I'm still amazed to see those two wards now feature in the top ten highest Labour votes and the top ten Labour over Conservative margin.
This also highlights the dismal performance for the Conservatives across the rest of Stockport in the mayoral vote - the Lib Dems coming second in a large number of the wards, and the Bramhalls nowhere to be seen in the other more Tory-inclined lists. It's little surprise Reform were second in the central Stockport wards, but presumably just the best of fairly low vote shares for them, the Tories and the Lib Dems.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 12, 2024 15:30:12 GMT
It's a long time now since the two Heatons were Tory strongholds, and the change over time has been clearly in one direction for them. However, I'm still amazed to see those two wards now feature in the top ten highest Labour votes and the top ten Labour over Conservative margin. This also highlights the dismal performance for the Conservatives across the rest of Stockport in the mayoral vote - the Lib Dems coming second in a large number of the wards, and the Bramhalls nowhere to be seen in the other more Tory-inclined lists. It's little surprise Reform were second in the central Stockport wards, but presumably just the best of fairly low vote shares for them, the Tories and the Lib Dems. Good old demographic change. Moor and Mersey have been Didsbury overspill for a fair while now. There's no base for the Tories to rebuild from, and the old community links that sustained them have vanished as house prices rise and force people out (which is what caused people from Didsbury to end up in the Heatons!) See also the Urmston wards.
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on May 12, 2024 17:16:46 GMT
It's a long time now since the two Heatons were Tory strongholds, and the change over time has been clearly in one direction for them. However, I'm still amazed to see those two wards now feature in the top ten highest Labour votes and the top ten Labour over Conservative margin. This also highlights the dismal performance for the Conservatives across the rest of Stockport in the mayoral vote - the Lib Dems coming second in a large number of the wards, and the Bramhalls nowhere to be seen in the other more Tory-inclined lists. It's little surprise Reform were second in the central Stockport wards, but presumably just the best of fairly low vote shares for them, the Tories and the Lib Dems. Good old demographic change. Moor and Mersey have been Didsbury overspill for a fair while now. There's no base for the Tories to rebuild from, and the old community links that sustained them have vanished as house prices rise and force people out (which is what caused people from Didsbury to end up in the Heatons!) See also the Urmston wards. Was about to say the same about north Trafford more generally. The spill westwards from Urmston has also changed the demographic of Stretford, not that it was voting Tory before. (Irish passport holders is an interesting one to look at on the census data.)
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 12, 2024 19:52:13 GMT
Good old demographic change. Moor and Mersey have been Didsbury overspill for a fair while now. There's no base for the Tories to rebuild from, and the old community links that sustained them have vanished as house prices rise and force people out (which is what caused people from Didsbury to end up in the Heatons!) See also the Urmston wards. Was about to say the same about north Trafford more generally. The spill westwards from Urmston has also changed the demographic of Stretford, not that it was voting Tory before. (Irish passport holders is an interesting one to look at on the census data.) It really is staggering. The deranged house prices have encouraged a lot of people to sell up and ship out. It's very strange now to go back to what was the poor relation of Trafford and see it at Alty prices! Or what were Alty prices ... Certainly I couldn't afford to go back even if I intended to.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 12, 2024 19:55:21 GMT
owainsutton that Labour figure in Piccadilly would seem to back up the discussion we were having about the folly of throwing resources trying to dislodge Labour there!
|
|