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Post by hullenedge on Apr 29, 2024 7:15:28 GMT
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,130
Member is Online
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Post by maxque on Apr 30, 2024 22:34:28 GMT
They have started to credit parlcons, but now, it's Andrew Teale that they don't credit.
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Post by carlton43 on May 1, 2024 7:13:56 GMT
They have started to credit parlcons, but now, it's Andrew Teale that they don't credit. The results young man. What else? And do your own heavy lifting and get some service in rather asking for 'where to look'. Lazy or wot? Typical young modernist. Where is the action? What is happening? Why is that important? How should I react? What should I be thinking?
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 3, 2024 12:25:44 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 12:31:32 GMT
That's a good result for the Tories...
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 12:38:54 GMT
Tories hold Tattenhoe by 306. That‘s well above par.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 13:06:45 GMT
Labour are publicly claiming majority control here.
First gain - Stantonbury - is in. Blimey it‘s by 950 votes as well - that‘s a big portent for MK North. Labour will love that.
Lib Dems gain Shenley Brook End from Tories. 4 vote majority last year, 366 this year.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 13:16:53 GMT
Lab gain Bletchley West by 300 odd. A gain‘s a gain but that’s actually not bad for the Tories, given the parliamentary seat.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 13:42:25 GMT
Holds for Lab in Central Milton Keynes and LD in Bradwell.
Coming thick and fast now, Lab hold (confirm defection) on n Stony Stratford.
Labour also hold Woughton and Fishermead
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 13:51:36 GMT
Lib Dems hold Broughton
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 13:53:01 GMT
Here‘s the biggie: Danesborough and Walton is hold by Con and Hopkins, not Lab and co-op.
That was the Battle Royale in the past week.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 13:54:16 GMT
Lab gain Bletchley West by 300 odd. A gain‘s a gain but that’s actually not bad for the Tories, given the parliamentary seat. I wonder if the Conservatives are focussing their efforts onto the wards going into Buckingham & Bletchley (given the strong showing in Tatternhoe too), having given up hope of winning the other two parliamentary seats?
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 13:56:35 GMT
Lab hold Loughton and Shenley
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 14:01:52 GMT
Labour win Bletchley East (Safe) AND Bletchley Park (marginal) No figures released after the first 5 wards grrr…
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 14:03:35 GMT
Lab hold Wolverton, Lib Dem hold Monkston, Con hold NP North and Hanslope
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 14:09:00 GMT
Tories hold Olney by 700.
This all feels ‚back to 2022‘ so far.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 14:15:03 GMT
Apparently it‘s Lab 30 LD 18 Con 9 but not all wards publicly declared so some gaps.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 14:20:23 GMT
Numbers coming through now. Lib Dem gain in CPOW (my old ward) only by 150. that’s much closer than I anticipated.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 4, 2024 0:42:04 GMT
All a bit messy earlier with how the results came through so let's pull together. Now I've seen the figures properly, although the headlines are the Labour majority and big Tory losses ("more concrete cows than Tory councillors in MK now" as the Labour PPC put it) the only party to pick up vote share were the Greens - and everyone else down a little. Labour did well in the Lib/Con contests so LDs got 3 gains on reduced share from last year. Labour are crowing about their majority but it's based on lower turnouts rather than them getting any more votes than before. The results were *exactly* the same as 2022, and only 2 seats different to last year. So our notoriously split wards are now mostly unified - just in time for these boundaries to be scrapped ahead of anticipated all-outs in 2026. Here's how MK North ended up: Wolverton (last year Lab hold by 1,349 over Con) Lab defenceAnsar Hussain defends for Labour. He was suspended over tweets at one point but looks to be back in the fold. Labour have won every election here since the new boundaries and hard to see any risk here this year. Ex Tory group leader Edith Bald stands here as she did last year - looks like she's being asked to make up the numbers. Lab 1748 Con 541 Green 515 Lib Dem 251 As safe as expected - nearly a second place for veteran Green candidate Alan Francis. I wonder if that's a Gaza effect at all - there is a large Mosque in Wolverton. Stony Stratford (last year Lab hold by 382 over Con) Con defence
Technically a Con defence, and indeed the incumbent Joe Hearnshaw is re-standing - but for Labour. I've counted it as a Con defence unlike carolus but it doesn't feel that way. Joe defected last year after seeing Labour win the previous 2 elections. Simply self-preservation, a genuine change of heart or a bit of both? Not sure but I rate his chances much higher now he's on the red team. This is a ward with a huge amount of new housing which is now dominating the historic town of Stony Stratford itself - so the long term trend is towards Labour. Another Con re-tread: Denise Brunning retired from the seat in 2019 and is attempting to return. I can see how the Tories win this: Denise is well-respected, higher turnout in Stony Stratford than the new estates (Fairfields/Whitehouse) and if Labour voters hold their noses over having an ex-Tory as candidate then they could do it. But with the polls as they are, I think it'll be too tough an ask this year. Lab 2077 Con 1389 Lib Dem 323 Green 293 There's your answer - the largest Labour majority ever here I think. The new builds are clearly moving the ward fast out of Tory reach, even with what looked like a decent Tory effort here. Bradwell ( last year Lib Dem hold by 897) Lib Dem defenceDeputy Mayoress Marie Bradburn defends. Wife of group leader but an accomplished Councillor in her own right. Something's gone very wrong here if this is close. Lib Dem 1532 Lab 709 Con 392 Green 213 Nothing did go wrong. Well, it clearly did for the Tories with a miserable vote share here - they're usually third but not that low here. Stantonbury ( last year Lab gain from Con by 639) Con defenceCon defence, but the incumbent stands down after a single term. So the defence falls to Amanda Marlow - another Tory retread as she retired in the face of likely defeat in Loughton and Shenley last year. Lab candidate a parish councillor from Wolverton who I don't know. I'd expect a thumping Lab win here - this isn't a ward who will listen to Tory messaging about plans starting to work when they don't feel it, and the Labour campaign machine seems to be firing much better than the Conservative one here - since the loss of Alex Walker the Tories have been much less effective. If they get the gain, it'll be the first time Stantonbury has 3 Cllrs from the same party since Labour won all 3 back in 2014. Lab 1652 Con 706 RefUK 422 Green 304 Lib Dem 255 I thought this could be a big margin and it was huge. That was a Con defence remember. I think this will need an unpopular Labour government, and a lot more spark in the Con campaign to make this competitive again. Dragging back a previous Con retiree for the second year in a row here makes it seem like they have run out of keen candidates. Newport Pagnell South (last year Lib Dem hold by 377) Con defenceWell I say Con defence, but this is the other one where it's all changed. The Lib Dems had a historic defeat here in 2021 in their safest ward on paper, with a combination of a last minute retirement, a planning issue badly mishandled by the Councillors, and a campaign team that had got rusty and complacent through repeated success. The Tories couldn't believe their luck. But be careful what you wish for. The Tory candidate who got elected proved to be a far from ideal representative, and it all went wrong after he was involved in a car crash which damaged the van of a local business. He was driving without insurance, as a result the local business couldn't claim and had to lose their premises on Newport Pagnell High Street. The Cllr tried to keep it under wraps, not even telling his party after he had been convicted. It was only MK Citizen journalists who uncovered what was happening by seeing Wycombe magistrate court listings. He had to resign on the spot, Tory reputation turned to mud, and the Tories ended up third in their own defence in the by-election, with Labour mounting a spirited campaign to secure second place but still a long way behind. So the Lib Dems have already gained the seat and need to defend it; the Labour candidate returns from the by-election. The Tory 'defence' looks impossible given the history and there's a new candidate to try. I'd have made the Lib Dems favourite had they been challenging, but they really should hold their by-election gain given the circumstances. Lib Dem 1263 Con 685 Lab 621 Green 162 This was the only Lib Dem ward which didn't go backwards in vote share - and heading back towards historic levels of safety. Although it wasn't a serious campaign by other parties, I imagine the Tories will be relieved to stop the tide against them here by recovering second place after coming third in the by-election. Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope (last year Con hold by 466 over Lib Dem) Con defence.
The Lib Dems did make significant progress here last year - a Tory majority under 500 is unheard of in these parts - but this just looks like an impossible nut to crack. The Hanslope area outvotes Newport Pagnell in both turnout and voting intention, and even the Tory travails in Newport Pagnell South aren't likely to have a big enough ripple to cause trouble here. With the Lib Dems fighting for gains elsewhere rather than defences like last year, I suspect they won't be able to put quite as much effort into this ward. Chris Wardle defends his seat for the Cons and the Lib Dem candidate from last year who did so well returns - but if the Cons lose here they might as well pack up and go home. Con 1672 Lib Dem 796 Labour 776 Green 220 The nut remains firmly uncracked. The Lib Dems did end up putting significant effort in here - and still went backwards to the tune of 300 votes from last year. But that activity was probably enough to secure second place. The Tories will be praying that this ward stays on new boundaries. Olney (last year Lab gain from Con by 46) Con defence
Labour's result here last year was one of their best in the whole country. This should be impossible territory for them, swathes of true blue countryside surrounding the market town of Olney. If this was typical of their performance nationally, they'd be heading north of 500 MPs. So can lightning strike twice? They're giving it a good go but I reckon they may fall short. Several reasons: a very strong incumbent who is well-established, respected and connected across the community. Tory voters much more motivated to turn out after the shock last year. No Reform candidate unlike last year. Last year relied on train-loads of activists from London coming up day after day. Will that be possible again with a London Mayoral election underway? And finally I've heard a lot less about the Labour candidate this year, although he is an Olney Town Councillor. So the Tories really really should hold this. But even having to type that, knowing that Labour will tie the Tories down in a seat like this that should be a banker, is a huge achievement that paves the way for gains in marginals elsewhere. Con 2234 Lab 1505 Green 387 Lib Dem 110 When Rachel Reeves turned up at Olney Market to launch a new business rates plan a few days ago, I thought I'd read this wrong and the miracle was on again - but no. Labour never had anything like the energy of last year here, the Tories were wise to the danger, and Labour seemed to visibly reduce activity here a couple of weeks out - I think they knew this one was out of reach. I think the most likely result here is Lab 3 (+2) Lib Dem 2 (+1) Con 2 (-3) So far so good...... If the Tory leads in the rural wards are < 500, and they don't come close in Stantonbury/Stony Stratford, I'd favour Labour for the MK North parliamentary seat. If the Tories get better rural majorities and hold at least one city seat then I imagine they'd take that as a step forward, especially if they can recover somewhat in Newport Pagnell South. For the Lib Dems it's really about securing their 2 wards and a respectable result in Newport North - their real targets come later. Totals: Labour 9,088 Con 7,619 Lib Dem 4,530 The Tories did better than I expected in the rural seats but worse in the city seats. Overall I think Labour will be satisfied with these totals and should be favourites for MK North. However the Lib Dem vote won't fall all that helpfully for them and the lower turnout gives less certainty, so I'm not sure some of the detail here is as reassuring for Labour as they'd have wanted.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 5, 2024 17:06:13 GMT
And here are the results in MK Central against how I thought they might fall... Loughton and Shenley (Lab gain from Con by 337) Lab defence Labour did incredibly well to win this ward in 2021 - the only marginal they held, due to having an impressive incumbent and the Tory candidate not in the same league. She now stands down after a decade of service. Last year's winner resigned from the Council after 6 months for health reasons - we were here only 2 months ago for a by-election, which Labour held by 165 votes. If the Tories are going to win a surprise ward, I have my eye on this one. No incumbent, the same Tory candidate as last year and the by-election, voting fatigue, and the Labour candidate is the wife of the current Mayor (so Mayoress). So she's been busy with civic events all year and I don't know how much profile she has herself. Tories must win this to be in contention for the parliamentary seat. I'd make them odds-against, but not by much. Lab 1457 Con 1214 Green 251 Lib Dem 171 Ind 152 Funny one this. I was onto something that it was close - this is in fact the most marginal Lab/Con result. But you'd never have guessed. Zero visible campaign effort here, the Labour team seemed to spend the whole campaign in Danesborough and Walton, the Tory PPC never posted from here as far as I saw and he was hyperactive everywhere else. So a riddle in an enigma. What was going on here? I could see this was marginal at a distance, seemingly no-one else could. When the Conservatives break back into the city wards, I suspect they might start here (if there's a recognisable successor on new boundaries.) Shenley Brook End (Lib Dem gain from Con by 4) Con defence
Only a fool makes predictions here - often MK's closest ward. The losing Tory candidate from last year, Saleena Raja, now challenges for the Lib Dems. She's also the chair of the parish council, and her knife-edge defeat last year was actually one of the best Con results in MK, indicating a substantial personal vote. Fair play to her for picking herself up after a defeat by that sort of margin. The Tory incumbent stands down (surprisingly - I thought he was going places) and I don't know a lot about the Tory defender except he lives in the ward. If the Lib Dems win, they will have all 3 councillors in the ward for the first time since 2015 so it's a big prize. Lib Dem organisation seems to have improved, I think they might just make it. After a recount of course. Lib Dem 1379 Con 1013 Lab 611 Green 185 Recounts are for wimps.... I heard that the Tory defector was a superb candidate, respected and well-known across the area. And that the Lib Dem campaign was the slickest it's been in a decade. This is the biggest majority I can remember, and the Lib Dems now have clear air for the first time in a decade. They'll be hoping for a clear successor ward - the Tories will probably want to muddy the boundaries with parts of Tattenhoe or Bletchley West. Central Milton Keynes (Lab hold by 612 over Con) Lab defence (double vacancy last year so top vote)
Labour incumbent defends, and Labour have never lost a seat here since the ward boundary changes. New Tory candidate i don't know, I doubt there will be a great deal of activity here so I'd anticipate a smooth Labour hold. Lab 1383 Con 664 Lib Dem 293 Green 224 *Shrug* Woughton and Fishermead (Lab hold by 1,001) Lab Defence
Does my majority look big in this? Labour fortress that will deliver a huge majority come rain or shine. Worth keeping an eye on turnout here - Labour will want it high as they want to get as many voters out here in the GE as possible. Lab 1421 Con 447 Green 217 Lib Dem 148 *Another shrug* Campbell Park and Old Woughton ( Lib Dem hold by 664) Con defenceThis ward has been split for its whole existence - but the Lib Dems have a great chance to capture all three seats this year, following a sizeable win last year after several close results over the past decade. The Tory incumbent defends - she'll win the Old Woughton part of the ward with ease, but although a classy councillor I'm not sure she's much of a street fighter in the estates making up the rest of the ward, and the Lib Dem candidate was a Councillor 20 years ago and has had plenty of time to prepare. The leaflet count since the last election is something like 9-1 in the Lib Dems favour and the Lib Dem operation here seems to be leaving the Tory campaign in its tracks. It won't be easy and it's not in the bag, but expecting a Lib Dem gain here. Lib Dem 1263 Con 1107 Lab 835 Green 209 The most marginal ward in MK this time. Again, you wouldn't have known it with neither party working it hard on polling day. So much for political antennae! Lib Dems got the hard fought gain but it's their lowest vote total ever here I think (they've lost with more votes than that) and that Lab total is well above par suggesting a squeeze operation going backwards. A win is a win but it looks like a lucky escape to me rather than the sort of triumph seen in Shenley Brook End. Broughton (Lib Dem hold by 1,275) Lib Dem defenceThis was a Tory-leaning marginal until very recently, but the Conservative operation has collapsed here following the retirement of one of their most effective campaigners in 2021 (He retired facing defeat - but it was such a good year for the Tories he'd have won.) The Lib Dem team have picked up the mantle, and have focussed on the hundreds of new builds completed in the ward each year. They've racked up huge majorities as a result and i wouldn't be shocked by an even greater majority this year. - This was the first ward the Tory bin collection leaflets went out in, so we'll see the impact here. It's possible the backlash against the Tories has been so great it might actually help the Lib Dems. Our regular Heritage Party candidate stands but I doubt he will make much impact. Lib Dem 1652 Con 938 Labour 767 Green 174 Heritage 64 Majority down on last year - could have been the lower turnout, the higher Lab vote, the bins nonsense having some impact. But still safely Lib Dem. Monkston (Lib Dem hold by 724) Lib Dem defence
Vanessa McPake 'retires' after at least 20 years on the Council and she will be missed. There's an independent candidate who I think was a Tory activist/candidate until recently. I can't see anyone having the resources to get close to the Lib Dems here, last year also had a new candidate and was a comfortable Lib Dem hold. Lib Dem 1118 Lab 623 Con 500 Green 185 Ind 109 Con coming third here is absolutely dire for them (they have won a seat here, once on GE turnout) There were a couple of reasons why this could have been a tricky defence so a near-500 majority represents a comfortable margin which may well increase in future. I don't believe Labour did any work for their second place, but the rising red tide lifted all boats. Danesborough and Walton (Lab win by 165 over Con) Con defence
If it hadn't been for Labour's win in Olney, last year's Labour result would have been celebrated more than it was - the first ever win in this ward which had always been solidly Tory before. And not just Tory, but Hopkins Tory. David Hopkins has a massive personal vote based in the Woburn Sands area, and since 2014 his daughter Victoria has joined him on the Council. This is another ward with massive housebuilding - and massive by Milton Keynes standards means we are counting in the thousands. This ward is both significantly oversized, and has a rural component so it's no mean feat to campaign effectively here. We'll find out which part of the name makes the difference this year as Victoria Hopkins - now a 3 term incumbent - defends against the Labour candidate who lost in Tattenhoe last year. Both sides are putting significant effort in here. My instinct is that the Hopkins name might just have enough power to get the Tories over the line but I have very low confidence in that. A marquee contest this year. If the Tories can't hold here, where can they? Hopkins and Con 1990 Labour and Co-op 1525 Green 423 Lib Dem 272 Lesson learned: Never, ever, bet against a Hopkins here. The Labour and Conservative teams constituency-wide both camped here for the last two weeks of the campaign and focussed all their polling day activity here. Stephen Kinnock here all day on polling day and plenty of VIPs during the campaign. So a bit of an embarrassingly large margin after all that work by Labour. I'm sorry to have to go there, but I think Labour got their candidate selection all wrong - a hijab-wearing Muslim candidate in a partly rural Tory stronghold ward is a tough sell. I've had the chance to meet her and she's an impressive lady who would make a fine councillor - but I think there are wards that would be a better fit than both the two she's stood in. And of course the Tories were motivated after the shock defeat in 2023. The Conservatives crowing about this - but it's a sign how far they've fallen that they celebrate holding a single safe ward. David Hopkins, father of Victoria, has been voted out as Group Leader as a result of the elections - Shazna Muzammil (watch that name - I think she'll be a PPC before long) takes over. I think this might end up Lab 3-4 Lib Dem 3-4 Con 0-2. (3,2,3 in 2021) Lab 3 Lib Dem 4 Con 1. Lib Dems winning here! For the Tories to be competitive in the parliamentary seat, they'll want to win Danesborough and Walton & Shenley Brook End as a minimum, ideally Loughton and Shenley as well, while restricting majorities in Monkston, CPOW, Broughton. (as the Lib Dem votes here will go firmly red come the GE) Labour just need no shocks and winning Danesborough again would be the icing on the cake. Lib Dems laser-focussed on the 2 gains needed. I make the totals: Lab 8,622 Con 7,873 LD 6,296 Green 1,868 Others 325. It looks close but the Tories were nowhere near the bar I set above - thousands of those Lib Dem votes will find their way to the red column in the pressure of a General Election. Yes the Tories held a ward - one ward - this year and are treating it as a win, but that's really not the benchmark to be competitive constituency-wide. Nailed on Lab gain. The Lib Dems win 4 wards and are nowhere in the other four. Very efficient campaigning under FPTP but the upcoming boundary changes obviously present huge downside risk as a result and I'm sure the other parties will have proposals ready which carefully dilute the areas of Lib Dem strength.
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