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Post by aintree92 on Apr 26, 2024 22:03:23 GMT
Impressive list of Labour Shadow Cabinets members visiting during the short campaign. Plus great media interest. Will there be a change of control?
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Post by matureleft on Apr 27, 2024 10:00:36 GMT
I don’t think it’s ever been Labour controlled even in the Tory nadir of the mid to late 1990s (in part because the LibDems were also doing well there then). It’s possible that there might have been a Labour leader with NOC in part of that period. But with Labour seemingly established as the winning alternative to the Tories here, it’s possible. Is it a council with a record of poor governance? District councils don’t typically have the extreme financial problems of authorities with social care obligations.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 27, 2024 10:09:40 GMT
I don’t think it’s ever been Labour controlled even in the Tory nadir of the mid to late 1990s (in part because the LibDems were also doing well there then). It’s possible that there might have been a Labour leader with NOC in part of that period. But with Labour seemingly established as the winning alternative to the Tories here, it’s possible. Is it a council with a record of poor governance? District councils don’t typically have the extreme financial problems of authorities with social care obligations. In 1995 it was LD 18 Lab 14 Con 13 Ind 1. So the Tories might not be quite so low now as they were then but as you say Labour establishing itself as the winning alternative.
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Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
I be middlin' after being market fresh, thank ye
Posts: 66
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Post by Bonham Gyles on Apr 27, 2024 10:34:13 GMT
I don’t think it’s ever been Labour controlled even in the Tory nadir of the mid to late 1990s (in part because the LibDems were also doing well there then). It’s possible that there might have been a Labour leader with NOC in part of that period. But with Labour seemingly established as the winning alternative to the Tories here, it’s possible. Is it a council with a record of poor governance? District councils don’t typically have the extreme financial problems of authorities with social care obligations. The Labour Party are saying it is poorly run with claims being made about finances and bad decisions relating to leisure centres by the Tory administration (I don't know all the detail I'm afraid) My belief is that Rushmoor could swing and Labour may take the Council from the Tories
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 27, 2024 10:40:16 GMT
It's Farnborough where the big change is occuring - Aldershot always had a cluster of good Labour wards and that's where most of their seats would have been in the 90s with the Lib Dems then being competitive in most of Farnborough. All the spectacular gains last year came in Farnborough. Londonification from what I understand
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 27, 2024 11:01:32 GMT
I think Andy Straker was briefly a Labour leader of a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition around 1999.
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Post by jakegb on Apr 27, 2024 13:08:25 GMT
Certainly one to watch. Driving through Aldershot most days, I haven't seen a great number of posters. Farnborough I can't comment on. But demographically, the area is certainly changing ...
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,565
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 27, 2024 19:33:52 GMT
It's Farnborough where the big change is occuring - Aldershot always had a cluster of good Labour wards and that's where most of their seats would have been in the 90s with the Lib Dems then being competitive in most of Farnborough. All the spectacular gains last year came in Farnborough. Londonification from what I understand I don't think it's so much Londoninfication so much as Labour have been reasonably effective in this borough even during the difficult years (unlike most other Hampshire districts) and so have established themselves over almost the whole of the borough as the main alternative due to the Lib Dem collapse. Obviously Farnborough is significantly more attractive to move to from outside than Aldershot and so surely that's had an impact on anti-Tory votes replacing diminished old school Conservative electors, but some of those definitely won't be London exiles because it's just a cheaper place to live than much of the surrounding areas in Hants, Surrey and Berkshire.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,640
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Rushmoor
May 3, 2024 2:14:40 GMT
via mobile
Post by john07 on May 3, 2024 2:14:40 GMT
Any reactions to the Labour gain here?
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Rushmoor
May 3, 2024 2:50:35 GMT
via mobile
Sg1 likes this
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 3, 2024 2:50:35 GMT
I've said it the other place, but this is the result that has hit me hardest. We, the Conservatives, need to have a fricking brutal postmortem asking why we lost the heartland of His Majesty's army.
The answer is, ofc, obvious. Whilst we've done a lot of good for the armed forces, such as massive rebuilding of the maintenance departments and logistics and supply rebuilding*, the numbers have been cut when they should be increased. Never mind the greedy so and so's in certain public services, we should be showering funding on the people who put their lives on the line for us all.
Message received🫡.
* Melting boots and tanks getting stuck in the sand because of poor quality tracks are phenomena that should never be forgiven. There should have been criminal prosecutions.
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Post by matureleft on May 3, 2024 3:08:31 GMT
I note that Labour was 7 votes off one further gain. A pretty impressive result from what must be a robust local Labour Party that will have had some very hard work to do.
I’d imagine that the ‘services vote’ element here is far less than it was (and anyway isn’t the heavily Tory vote that it used to be).
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 9:21:16 GMT
And will presumably be more evident in Aldershot than in Farnborough, and hence more likely to have been voting Labour previously anyway.
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Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 9:45:39 GMT
I note that Labour was 7 votes off one further gain. A pretty impressive result from what must be a robust local Labour Party that will have had some very hard work to do. I’d imagine that the ‘services vote’ element here is far less than it was (and anyway isn’t the heavily Tory vote that it used to be). Correct. That is the essential difference. No, it isn't monumentally CON anymore either, but it is the diminished numbers that matter. @forfarshireconservative is rushing down his mythic rabbit hole of wrong conclusions as he so often does, when the answer is much simpler.
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Post by sinisterdexter on May 3, 2024 11:00:19 GMT
If you think the results from the home of the Army are bad, you should see what's happened to the home of the Navy 😁
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,565
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Post by Khunanup on May 3, 2024 14:38:02 GMT
And will presumably be more evident in Aldershot than in Farnborough, and hence more likely to have been voting Labour previously anyway. Exactly. The slightest bit of voting history research would have told anyone this...
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Post by batman on May 3, 2024 19:27:42 GMT
I remember reading Robert's profile of this constituency in the Almanac of British Politics over 20 years ago. He said that squaddies rarely vote in local elections but are more likely to do so in general ones (although this is of course true to some extent of the electorate as a whole). It's not that squaddies have been repelled from voting Conservative in council elections, they haven't for many years anyway, plus there are considerably fewer of them than there used to be here anyway.
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Post by batman on May 3, 2024 19:31:47 GMT
I notice a severe thrashing for Conservative candidate Bill Withers in North Town ward. Not a lovely day, lovely day for him.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,130
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Post by maxque on May 12, 2024 14:11:49 GMT
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