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Bradford
May 3, 2024 15:24:37 GMT
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Post by swanarcadian on May 3, 2024 15:24:37 GMT
There was a definite buzz in the air in Heaton ward yesterday, which has a large Asian community. Posters aplenty for the Labour, Green and Indy candidates and loudspeakers being used outside polling stations and from cars.
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Post by swanarcadian on May 3, 2024 16:01:01 GMT
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 3, 2024 16:47:01 GMT
Thanks guys, possibly a better performance than my predictions - lets see.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 3, 2024 16:49:46 GMT
held all our defences so big sighs of relief
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 3, 2024 17:20:11 GMT
Bradford Final totals:
Labour 49 down 5 Conservatives 13, down 4 Greens 10 up 2 BIG 9 up 7 Lib Dem 5 no change Q'bury Ind 1 down 1 Ilkley ind 0 down 1 Ind 3 n/c
I'll do a ward by ward update and put my hands up for duff predictions in a day or two
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 3, 2024 18:00:52 GMT
bradford.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=77&RPID=30466255Third: Lab 10 (-5), Ind 9 (+7), Con 4 (-4), Grn 4 (+2), LD 3 %: Lab 33%, Ind 20%, Con 20%, Grn 15%, LD 7% Council: Lab 48 (-5), Ind 14 (+5), Con 14 (-2), Grn 10 (+2), LD 5 Independent gain over Labour in: Bolton and Undercliffe (former LD MP David Ward; by 263 votes) Bowling and Barkerend (by 219 votes) City (by 776 votes) Great Horton (by 239 votes) Heaton (by 639 votes over Green, by 938 votes over Labour incumbent) Manningham (by 3201 votes) Toller (by 883 votes) Green gain over Conservative in: Craven (by 167 votes) Green gain over Independent in: Ilkley (by 167 votes over Con, by 1426 votes over the Ind incumbent) Labour gain over Conservative in: Keighley W (by 270 votes) Wyke (by 613 votes) Independent gain over Conservative in: Queensbury (confirms defection, by 1211 votes over Lab, by 1556 votes over Con) Close holds: Eccleshill (LD hold over Lab by 48 votes) Keighley E (Lab hold over Con by 178 votes) Wharfedale (Con hold over Lab by 67 votes) Wibsey (Lab hold over Ind by 147 votes)
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Post by lancastrian on May 5, 2024 17:05:33 GMT
Labour didn't win any wards in Bradford East
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 6, 2024 9:18:18 GMT
OK, so how did it go, and how did I do? Lets start with: ShipleyBaildonCurrently 3 Con Last time: Con 44 Lab 41 GP 5 LD 5 RUK 4 Candidates: Lab, Local Con, Green Lib Dem, Ind The Ind is the former Labour candidate who came within 150 votes last time, presumably deselected and unsurprisingly unhappy. I don’t think affiliated with BIG. Debbie Davies will be anxious but should hang on, presumably the Tories will go all out following last years shock and the Labour vote will be split. BingleyCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 47 Con 40 GP 9 LD4 Candidates: Lab, Local Con, Green, Lib dem Unsurprising and comfortable Labour gain last time, doubtless a hold this year Bingley RuralCurrently 3 Con last time Con 47 Lab 23 Ind 18 GP 8 LD 4 Candidates: Lab, Local Con, Green, lib Dem Con hold likely despite everything ShipleyCurrently 3 Green Last time: GP 65 Lab 25 Con 9 LD 2 Candidates Lab, Local Con, Green, Lib Dem, Ref UK, Ind I’m not sure if the Ind is affiliated to BIG. Comfortable hold for my running club mate Martin Love WharfedaleCurrently 2 Con 1 Lab Defending Con Last time: Lab 39 Con 39 GP 10 LD 10 Candidates: Lab, Local Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party Shock gain (by 26 votes) for Lab last time. Given the national changes since then they should gain another Windhill and WroseCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 60 Con 25 LD 8 GP 7 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem Safe for Lab Baildon - as noted elsewhere the intervention of the former Labour candidate as an independent was probably the thing that saved Debbie Davies' bacon. I don't think he will be getting any invites to the Labour group Christmas part. Bingley, Bingley rural, Shipley- holds as predicted. Wharfedale - I got this one wrong. Bob Felsted held on, just. He is a nice chap and one of the wetter tories so perhaps that plus the general dissatisfaction with the Labour council saved him. I doubt Gaza was a factor here Windhill and Wrose - Alex Ross-Shaw held comfortably but with a reduced percentage. Tories no change, Green and LD up a bit. so no change in the constituency and 5/6 for me tbc
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 6, 2024 15:59:29 GMT
Moving on to KeighleyCravenCurrently 2 GP 1 Con defending Con Last time: GP 49 Con 32 Lab 12 YP 5 LD 1 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party, UKIP Boris mini-me Peter Clarke has presumably seen which way the wind is blowing and is not defending his seat. Greens will presumably take it IlkleyCurrently 2 Con 1 Ilkley Ind Defending Ilkley Ind Last time: Con 42 GP 39 Lab 15 LD 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Ilkley Ind Narrow (and to them disappointing) miss for the Greens last year. Ann Hawksworth was elected as an independent with 29% 4 years ago. With her and the official conservative dividing the right leaning vote between them I suspect the Greens will edge it (at least) this year Keighley CentralCurrently 2 Lab I ind Defending Lab Last time: Lab 49 Con 36 Ind 9 GP 3 Ind 1 LD 1 Candidates: Lab. Con. Green. Lib Dem. BIG As complicated as ever. The Indy who took 9% last time was the former Tory councillor for the ward standing after deselection. The Indy who isn’t up for election was also elected as a Conservative but removed from the group last year over comments on Gay Pride, so neither have any affiliation with the BIG. This is not a ward where traditional party ideology plays a huge part so BIG could win here Keighley EastCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 51 Con 36 GP 7 LD 5 SDP 1 Candidates: Lab Con, Green, Lib Dem, BIG, SDP Kudos to the SDP for persistence. Long Standing member Malcolm Slater standing down for labour. Should be a Labour hold unless BIG pull off a surprise. Could the Conservatives “Come through the middle” - I don’t think so. Keighley WestCurrently 1 Con, 1 Lab 1 Ind Defending Con Last time: Lab 47 Con 45 LD 4 GP 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, YP, RefUK More complications! The Indy here was Labour but was removed from the group for (or removed herself by) voting against the labour budget. The Green Candidate, Adrian Farley is a former labour councillor (and Childrens Services portfolio holder) who stood here 4 years ago (for Labour) and was narrowly defeated by the Con who is attempting to defend her seat. The Greens are quite chipper about this but I would be surprised if this is not a routine Labour pick upI Worth ValleyCurrently 3 Con Last time: Con 59 Lab 32 GP 5 LD 4 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem Likely Con hold Craven - Greens took the third seat here as expected, albeit less convincingly than last year. Ilkley - As expected Ann Hawksworth took enough of the potential Conservative vote for the Greens to narrowly gain by 167 votes 38 to 35%. Whilst I called this right I will admit to having expected Ann to have scored higher and the official Conservative lower. Keighley central - Labour hold with a clear lead over the BIG so I think I should admit to calling this wrong Keighley East - OTOH I think I got this just right - Labour hold despite the new candidate and a good Tory score, fewer than 200 votes more for the independent and they would have taken this Keighley West - No surprises here as we say farewell to the last Conservative, no real impact from the Greens Worth Valley - Comfortable Tory hold. 5/6 for me. I clearly overestimated the BIG vote in Keighley which maintains its individuality
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 6, 2024 16:25:53 GMT
On the other hand I clearly underestimated the impact of BIG in the city of Bradford wards. Bradford WestWith the Bradford Independent Group standing in all wards in Bradford West we may see some upsets. CityCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 79 Con 11 GP 10 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG Lab hold or BIG gain - who knows. If forced to choose I would say Lab Clayton and Fairweather GreenCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 69 Con 19 GP 8 LD 4 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, BIG More of a stretch for BIG and a likely Lab hold HeatonCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 58 GP 37 Con 3 LD 2 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG Greens have polled well over the last 2 elections (despite what appears to have been an unofficial ‘lets not try very hard’ last time.) with BIG intervention they could easily “come through the middle” ManninghamCurrently 2 Lab 1 BIG Defending BIG elected as Lab Last time: Lab 51 Ind 44 GP 3 Con 2 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG The BIG candidate here is the Indy who stood the last 2 years and did extremely well, not the BIG defector who was the sitting councillor. Probably the most likely BIG “gain” (Update - the poster count would suggest this). Thornton and AllertonCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 62 Con 21 GP 9 LD 9 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, BIG My home ward and apparently one of the ones Labour are worried about, which surprises me. I would have though a safe Lab hold despite BIG intervention. Does the Tory vote have any further to fall? If so will the BCW benefit? Could this be a surprise LD gain? (despite her being told this by the Labour candidate I am not holding my breath. I suspect the nervousness is increased by being the nominee for Lord Mayor next year) TollerCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 82 GP 9 Con 8 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG Another GOK BIG/Lab I’d say Lab City - BIG gain - I tossed the coin wrong on this one Clayton and Fairweather Green - Despite BIG taking 20% that only reduced labour to 40% and a reasonably comfortable hold. Tory, Green and Lib Dem votes all up a bit as well which probably reflects the ethnicity of the Labour Candidate Heaton - Got this wrong as well. BIG gain, and I can't even claim that a slightly smaller swing from Lab to Big would have given it to the greens Manningham - Massive win for BIG. As noted above the winning candidate is a young man who stood and did really well as an independent in the last two elections so there is more to him than just the Gaza issue. When I spoke to his people at previous counts they said his main motivation then was dissatisfaction with how the (Labour) establishment was representing the ward and a feeling that self advancement rather than the greater good and the interests of younger, less traditional residents. The previous councillor was elected as Labour but defected to BIG a few months ago so whether you define this as Ind Gain from Lab, Ind hold or Ind gain from Ind is a matter for discussion. Thornton and Allerton - no shock in the end for Lord Mayor Elect Bev Mullany, only 18% going to BIG with other parties unchanged - though I am pleased to say that the BCW finished in front of the Greens this year. Toller - Anther BIG gain I failed to spot. Losing Labour councillor Arshad Hussain was chair of Bradford Planning panel so a significant loss 3/3 Apart from in Manningham where there were posters for the Ind on real houses rather than just the big banners on empty properties which is all Labour had, there was almost no visible sign of activity until polling day. Presumably all going on in channels I have no access to.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 6, 2024 16:54:19 GMT
Another limited success here Bradford South
Great HortonCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 70 Con 10 Ind 7 LD 5 GP 4 YP 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party, BIG Lab I think but again who knows QueensburyCurrently 2 Lab 1 BSI Defending BSI Last time: Lab 35 Ind 31 Con 25 GP 7 LD 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Bradford South Independent Labour gains on a split Con/Former Con vote last 2 years, This time I think the BSI will edge it. RoydsCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 64 Con 22 GP 9 LD 5 Candidates:: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Ref UK Lab hold TongCurrently 3 Green Last time: GP 60 Lab 25 Con 9 LD 4 YP 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party Green hold WibseyCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 56 Con 21 LD 14 GP 5 YP 4 Candidates Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party, BIG Lab hold WykeCurrently 2 Lab 1 BSI (Not) Defending BSI Last time: Lab 56 Con 24 LD 6 BDP 5 RUK 5 GP 5 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, RefUK, British Democrats Joan Clarke not making what would have been a likely doomed attempt to defend her seat as an Ind and no BIG so routine Lab gain Great Horton - BIG gain, and probably their BIGgest (see what I did there) scalp of the night, with exec member and neighbourhoods and Community Safety portfolio holder Abdul Jabbar getting the chop Queensbury - I had predicted that the Bradford South Indy would hold this but was surprised how emphatic a win it was. In a ward which has dallied with the far right, perhaps an asian Labour candidate was not the best fit Royds - Comfortable Labour hold with some of their vote leaking, I suspect, to RefUK who finished in front of the Conservatives Emmanuel Bayap. Another ward where far right candidates have polled well in the past. Tong - Expected Green hold with everyone scoring much as last year Wibsey - Lab hold, but a narrow one only 147 votes, albeit that is 5% in a pathetically low poll. Another ward where far right candidates have polled well, an asian Labour Candidate, and a white BIG candidate - unpick all that if you can! Wyke - Labour hold but down, Tories down, RefUK up, Greens ahead of us this time and British Democrats last in the last ward they are fighting now. 5/6
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 6, 2024 17:18:41 GMT
Aaaaaand finally: Bradford EastBolton and UndercliffeCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 60 LD 19 Con 9 GP 5 YP 5 RUK 3 TUSC 1 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG, Yorkshire Party, TUSC This is believed to be one of the BIGs main targets and one of the defences Labour are concerned about. David Ward, standing for the BIG has a fair amount of personal support here from his time as a councillor and MP, so could make it Bowling and BarkerendCurrently 3 Lab Last time: Lab 75 LD 8 Con 7 GP 5 YP 4 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, BIG, Yorkshire Party Another Lab/BIG slug fest and one that Labour are allegedly worried about Bradford MoorCurrently 2 Lab 1 LD Defending LD Last time: Lab 56 LD 37 Con 4 YP 1 GP 1 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire party Labour candidate Margaret Alipoor was a councillor for Clayton and Fairweather Green and presumably deselected. With no BIG candidate my fingers are crossed for a LD hold EccleshillCurrently 2 Lab 1 LD Defending LD Last time: Lab 43 LD 35 Con 14 YP 5 GP 4 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party, TUSC Will be difficult after the last two results, but Brendan is a strong candidate and Labour are somewhat distracted by the BIG threat elsewhere and haven’t been pouring activists in from outside so I’m saying LD hold Idle and ThackleyCurrently 3 LD Last time: LD 64 Lab 19 Con10 YP 4 GP 4 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, Lib Dem, Yorkshire Party I’m not about to score as highly as Jeanette did last year, but I’ll go out on a limb and say LD hold Little HortonCurrently 3 BIG Last time: Lab 86 YP 4 Con 4 GP 3 LD 3 Candidates: Lab, Con, Green, BIG, Yorkshire Party BIG hold Bolton and Undercliffe - David Ward, for BIG, takes the seat back of Si Cunningham who beat him four years ago. Not as emphatic a win as some of the other BIG ones and with his long history as a councillor and MP covering this ward I am sure there was more to this than just Gaza. Interviewed after the count he did say he didn't have the team other BIG candidates had and did huge amounts of door knocking personally. Si Cunningham was quite a prominent member and heavily involved in the City of Culture delivery. Bowling and Barkerend - Labour right to be worried, losing to BIG Bradford Moor - In the end a comfortable hold for Lib Dem Riaz Ahmed Eccleshill - this was the real nail biter for us with group leader Brendan Stubbs hanging on by 48 votes. I am sure Labour distractions elsewhere helped us as they were absolutely nowhere to be seen in the ward on polling day. Light relief was provided by the Conservative candidate who showed his green credentials by sending out letters to postal voters from a previous election with the date amended to the current one, individually on each letter, and the same on his posters (not seen on the ward but as photographed in his leaflet. Idle and Thackley - as predicted I only got 60% rather than Jeanette's 64% last year but still a comfy LD hold Little Horton - BIG hold I'm calling 6/6 for this and as noted elsewhere Labour not winning anywhere in East. This loses them the majority (and presumably the chair) on Bradford East Area Committee.
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Bradford
May 6, 2024 19:57:42 GMT
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Post by swanarcadian on May 6, 2024 19:57:42 GMT
I’d like to think Debbie Davies would have survived in Baildon even without the intervention of Joe Ashton. We cannot assume all his voters would have gone to the official Labour candidate Gill Dixon (a member of Baildon Town Council), although it might have made the difference. Mr Ashton’s campaign seemed to be targeting anyone fed up with political parties, although all his posters seemed to be where red ones had been last year. I guess we’ll never know for sure.
There seems to be genuine excitement in the Asian community at election time; every street seemed to have posters up in Heaton ward, for example.
Ilkley and Craven going Green is surprising to say the least.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 6, 2024 20:07:25 GMT
I’d like to think Debbie Davies would have survived in Baildon even without the intervention of Joe Ashton. We cannot assume all his voters would have gone to the official Labour candidate Gill Dixon (a member of Baildon Town Council), although it might have made the difference. Mr Ashton’s campaign seemed to be targeting anyone fed up with political parties, although all his posters seemed to be where red ones had been last year. I guess we’ll never know for sure. There seems to be genuine excitement in the Asian community at election time; every street seemed to have posters up in Heaton ward, for example. Ilkley and Craven going Green is surprising to say the least. after the last 2 years the green gains were not that big a call. I’d agree about Baildon - I would have guessed a very narrow hold even before the intervention, but it must have helped. I’m surprised about what you say about posters in heaton etc, the bits I drove through were bereft of posters (although the fact that every second house on some streets didnt have a labour poster is signigicant in itself)
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Bradford
May 7, 2024 11:19:19 GMT
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Post by swanarcadian on May 7, 2024 11:19:19 GMT
I’d like to think Debbie Davies would have survived in Baildon even without the intervention of Joe Ashton. We cannot assume all his voters would have gone to the official Labour candidate Gill Dixon (a member of Baildon Town Council), although it might have made the difference. Mr Ashton’s campaign seemed to be targeting anyone fed up with political parties, although all his posters seemed to be where red ones had been last year. I guess we’ll never know for sure. There seems to be genuine excitement in the Asian community at election time; every street seemed to have posters up in Heaton ward, for example. Ilkley and Craven going Green is surprising to say the least. after the last 2 years the green gains were not that big a call. I’d agree about Baildon - I would have guessed a very narrow hold even before the intervention, but it must have helped. I’m surprised about what you say about posters in heaton etc, the bits I drove through were bereft of posters (although the fact that every second house on some streets didnt have a labour poster is signigicant in itself) Ilkley was a ward we held in 1995. In the context of last year, it’s not that surprising, but the fact the Greens ever came close has me scratching my head. I went through Heaton ward on polling day as I mentioned upthread and there was a definite buzz in the air; loudspeakers, posters aplenty, cars honking, the lot. Perhaps it was a last minute push.
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Crimson King
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Bradford
May 7, 2024 13:05:55 GMT
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Post by Crimson King on May 7, 2024 13:05:55 GMT
That was my impression - mostly under the radar until polling day then bang! I saw a massive illuminated video screen van on Carlisle Road!
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YL
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Post by YL on May 9, 2024 18:43:09 GMT
The Independent councillors elected last week in Bolton & Undercliffe, Bowling & Barkerend, City, Great Horton, Heaton, Manningham and Toller have now officially joined the three Little Horton councillors in the Bradford Independent Group, according to the council website. Meanwhile the Bradford South Independents, with just one seat left, have been renamed as the Queensbury Independents.
Two Independents elected in previous years, one as a Tory and one as Labour and both in Keighley wards, remain as mere Independents. So the composition is now Lab 49, Con 13, Green 10, Ind-BIG 10, Lib Dem 5, Ind 2, Ind-QI 1
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