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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 16:44:15 GMT
Sitting member- Unmesh Desai, Labour
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 9, 2023 23:06:11 GMT
The Conservative candidate is Freddie Downing.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 1, 2023 21:51:00 GMT
Reform UK candidate is Dan Oxley (is also parliamentary spokesman for East Ham; stood in Royal Albert ward, Newham in 2022 locals and Boleyn ward in July 2023 by-election; also stood for Brexit Party in St Helens South & Whiston at 2019 General Election and UKIP in East Ham 2015 & 2017 GEs).
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 2, 2023 1:34:32 GMT
This constituency is 33.7% Muslim, 33.2% Christian. Respect performed decently in 2004 and 2008 and there has been more demographic change since then.
What with the Israel conflict in the news, Aspire would probably gain this seat if they were to decide to field a candidate. Anyone know if they're likely to do so?
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weld
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Post by weld on Nov 2, 2023 7:20:00 GMT
George Galloway or Lutfur Rahman could plausibly take this seat, yes.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 2, 2023 12:10:32 GMT
Yes, but you may ask what would be the point if they have their eyes on bigger prizes - indeed, being elected mayor of TH is maybe already more prestigious for Rahman.
The real test might be if a non "celebrity" candidate of that stripe can still do well here. Its possible, if the Middle East is still as big an issue next May as now.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 2, 2023 15:56:24 GMT
Yes, but you may ask what would be the point if they have their eyes on bigger prizes - indeed, being elected mayor of TH is maybe already more prestigious for Rahman. The real test might be if a non "celebrity" candidate of that stripe can still do well here. Its possible, if the Middle East is still as big an issue next May as now. indeed, hence why I said "an Aspire candidate" rather than "Lutfur Rahman"- I feel like some councillor loyal to him would be a more likely candidate than Rahman himself.
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Post by stb12 on Nov 2, 2023 16:20:40 GMT
Yes, but you may ask what would be the point if they have their eyes on bigger prizes - indeed, being elected mayor of TH is maybe already more prestigious for Rahman. The real test might be if a non "celebrity" candidate of that stripe can still do well here. It’s possible, if the Middle East is still as big an issue next May as now. Being a London Assembly member does seem to come with far less profile than you’d think it maybe would
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pl
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Post by pl on Nov 2, 2023 17:44:01 GMT
Yes, but you may ask what would be the point if they have their eyes on bigger prizes - indeed, being elected mayor of TH is maybe already more prestigious for Rahman. The real test might be if a non "celebrity" candidate of that stripe can still do well here. It’s possible, if the Middle East is still as big an issue next May as now. Being a London Assembly member does seem to come with far less profile than you’d think it maybe would Indeed. In about 2015 I was running a team meeting for c.80 economists and political analysts at my firm in London, and offered a bottle of champagne to anyone who could name one London assembly member. Not one person could name one. I got BoJo, several MPs and Lutfur Rahman as answers. I then put up a slide with a picture of John Biggs - the local AM for the previous 15 years. No one could name who it was. To be fair, even I could only name about 5 or 6 AMs at the time.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,371
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 2, 2023 18:19:13 GMT
Yes, but you may ask what would be the point if they have their eyes on bigger prizes - indeed, being elected mayor of TH is maybe already more prestigious for Rahman. The real test might be if a non "celebrity" candidate of that stripe can still do well here. It’s possible, if the Middle East is still as big an issue next May as now. Being a London Assembly member does seem to come with far less profile than you’d think it maybe would That's because they don't do much.
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 2, 2023 19:09:39 GMT
Yes, but you may ask what would be the point if they have their eyes on bigger prizes - indeed, being elected mayor of TH is maybe already more prestigious for Rahman. The real test might be if a non "celebrity" candidate of that stripe can still do well here. It’s possible, if the Middle East is still as big an issue next May as now. Being a London Assembly member does seem to come with far less profile than you’d think it maybe would I could only have identified one member, and it would have been Unmesh, because I was a former employee of Newham Council, and he was a well known local political figure. Basically the London Assembly doesn't do anything. Central politicians have promoted the idea of metro mayors who essentially have all the power and publicity. The London Assembly, which is unique, is an unnecessary body. Leaders of the London Councils, as elsewhere in the country, are the relevant restraining factor.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 7, 2023 16:26:53 GMT
This constituency is 33.7% Muslim, 33.2% Christian. Respect performed decently in 2004 and 2008 and there has been more demographic change since then. What with the Israel conflict in the news, Aspire would probably gain this seat if they were to decide to field a candidate. Anyone know if they're likely to do so? "Decently" is 15% in both cases, which put them behind the Conservatives. Replicating that result in 2024, never mind beating Labour, would probably be a decent result. Though if did manage to take the seat, I suspect Labour would regain it on the list.
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weld
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Post by weld on Nov 7, 2023 16:31:20 GMT
How salient will the issue be in May 2024? Genuine question, to which I'm not sure anyone has an answer.
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Post by southernliberal on Mar 3, 2024 0:46:28 GMT
In light of the current Labour Party struggles around Gaza, and of course Thursday's big Rochdale win for Galloway, do we think the Workers Party and/or a Galloway-style independent could make inroads here.
They almost certainly wouldn't be able to win the 5% necessary London wide to win a seat but I imagine an organised campaign could do well here.
I note that in both 2004 and 2008 Respect won 15% support in this constituencies and in both elections came very close to earning second place (both times the Conservatives came second with Respect third)
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Post by borisminor on Mar 4, 2024 16:03:43 GMT
In light of the current Labour Party struggles around Gaza, and of course Thursday's big Rochdale win for Galloway, do we think the Workers Party and/or a Galloway-style independent could make inroads here. They almost certainly wouldn't be able to win the 5% necessary London wide to win a seat but I imagine an organised campaign could do well here. I note that in both 2004 and 2008 Respect won 15% support in this constituencies and in both elections came very close to earning second place (both times the Conservatives came second with Respect third) I think a Galloway campaign could perform healthily gaining double figures, but is highly unlikely to win a seat. A London Assembly election is at least to some extent the election of a parliament (I know it is in reality more than a glorified council). Galloway's success comes from by-elections rather than an actual election, since Bethnal Green, 2005 Galloway has not won a general election seat. In any devolved Parliament there has not been an independent/minor party elected in a constituency since 2007, I don't see that as likely to change. I am also not certain how salient Gaza is in an election where there is no chance of any influence, Galloway's message of 'Gaza's voice in Westminster' is far more effective than 'Gaza's voice in Newham Docks'
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Post by carolus on Mar 20, 2024 14:26:54 GMT
Liberal Democrat candidate is Patrick Stillman. He was the candidate in the June 2023 byelection in Camden, South Hampstead.
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 28, 2024 12:15:41 GMT
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Post by Yaffles on Mar 28, 2024 13:15:06 GMT
Doesn’t seem to be an obvious place for pro-Gaza anti-Starmer votes to go. Greens perhaps?
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Adam
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Post by Adam on Mar 28, 2024 13:42:04 GMT
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Post by stodge on Mar 28, 2024 18:33:07 GMT
Lois Austin is a perennial candidate - she stood for the TUSC in East Ham in 2015.
Joe Hudson-Small stood for the Greens in last year's Boleyn by election and finished a creditable third.
David Sandground stood for Reform in Wall End Ward in both the 2022 local elections and 2023 Wall End By election.
The Conservative and LD candidates are both from outside the Borough.
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