weld
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Post by weld on Aug 24, 2023 7:28:26 GMT
Labour are doing well if they win the Dudley seat. The Green - Lab fight decides the largest party in Bristol, and may show if the Greens can compete in Bristol Central. Given the history, you’d expect Labour to win the Dudley seat. I think they’d be very disappointed not to. Weathervane ward, IMO.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 24, 2023 8:54:52 GMT
Given the history, you’d expect Labour to win the Dudley seat. I think they’d be very disappointed not to. Weathervane ward, IMO. It's Labour's weakest ward in Dudley proper, but that still equates to a ward we really ought to win. The only times we've lost it in recent memory have been two elections where we got walloped nationally and 2022.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 24, 2023 9:31:38 GMT
It's Labour's weakest ward in Dudley proper, but that still equates to a ward we really ought to win. The only times we've lost it in recent memory have been two elections where we got walloped nationally and 2022. Yes the Conservatives have only won it 3 times in 40 odd years so not weathervane.In the current national circumstances and in a by election it would be pretty bleak for Labour not to win it.
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Aug 24, 2023 11:19:54 GMT
We held it once, in fact at one point it was Lorely Burt's ward, before she went to Solihull. But that was a long time back, and we were on the decline even before the Coalition years. We are fighting a proper campaign and I didn't see any sign of Tory literature when I was over there, but that's no proof of inactivity. Be surprised if the result isn't as speculated, but would expect some increase in our vote
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 24, 2023 12:54:29 GMT
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YL
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Post by YL on Aug 24, 2023 13:29:41 GMT
It's Labour's weakest ward in Dudley proper, but that still equates to a ward we really ought to win. The only times we've lost it in recent memory have been two elections where we got walloped nationally and 2022. Yes the Conservatives have only won it 3 times in 40 odd years so not weathervane.In the current national circumstances and in a by election it would be pretty bleak for Labour not to win it. I agree that it would be a poor result for Labour if they don’t win, but this is a ward which before 2018 had very persistent populist right strength and it looks like a shift of that vote to the Tories has helped them become competitive; that the Tories won it in 2022, admittedly very narrowly, suggests that it is currently behaving like a Lab/Con marginal even if it historically wasn’t one.
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wallington
Green
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Post by wallington on Aug 24, 2023 18:45:05 GMT
From what I've heard the Greens should hold the seat in Bristol without too much of an issue, although my source is very much a Green in Bristol, so... huge pinch of salt etc.
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Aug 24, 2023 21:40:43 GMT
35.12% turnout on the Isle of Wight. Will they make their 23:30 deadline?
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Post by phil156 on Aug 24, 2023 22:02:37 GMT
35.12% turnout on the Isle of Wight. Will they make their 23:30 deadline? There is only 1 polling station with 1 ballot box so should do
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 24, 2023 22:07:31 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 24, 2023 22:19:47 GMT
I guess that the most prominent word in that pic is not a clue as to who's going to win this by-election.
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Aug 24, 2023 22:20:11 GMT
35.12% turnout on the Isle of Wight. Will they make their 23:30 deadline? There is only 1 polling station with 1 ballot box so should do Spot on - Lib Dem gain!
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Post by carolus on Aug 24, 2023 22:20:25 GMT
LD gain in Isle of Wight
LD 475 - 47.9% (+47.9)
Con 291 - 29.3% (-2.5)
Vectis 178 - 17.9% (-29.4) Green 48 - 4.8% (-8.7)
No No Description
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Aug 24, 2023 22:24:24 GMT
And Green 48 if I heard correctly
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 24, 2023 22:26:45 GMT
2,583 BPs verified so turnout in Bishopston and Ashley Down is 29%.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 24, 2023 22:34:46 GMT
Is he going to give us a drumroll before announcing the result?
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 24, 2023 22:39:01 GMT
And Green 48 if I heard correctly You may well have done ( wasn't the sound diabolical even by the standards of these things?) Delighted of course but really messed up on my prediction thing as the green got about as many votes as I had them down for a percentage!I had thought this was a big opportunity for either greens or lib dem, depending on who turned up. I went for greens as I thought they were better placed and were campaigning, but I had toyed with the idea of going for the Lib Dems, who are on something of a roll this August.
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Post by carolus on Aug 24, 2023 22:44:12 GMT
Dudley Lab gain from Con.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 24, 2023 22:57:30 GMT
And Green 48 if I heard correctly You may well have done ( wasn't the sound diabolical even by the standards of these things?) Delighted of course but really messed up on my prediction thing as the green got about as many votes as I had them down for a percentage!I had thought this was a big opportunity for either greens or lib dem, depending on who turned up. I went for greens as I thought they were better placed and were campaigning, but I had toyed with the idea of going for the Lib Dems, who are on something of a roll this August. The tweet below did turn my internal prediction yellow.
Still the 22% for the Green candidate due to his feed also containing some campaigning posts made my guess come after the best public try
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 24, 2023 22:58:09 GMT
Dudley:
Lab 49.3% (860) Con 41.2% (719) Ind 4.8% (84) Grn 2.9% (50) LD 1.8% (32)
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