The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 24, 2023 11:26:03 GMT
If a party's numerical vote goes up in a byelection, this normally means they have done very well yes - given that turnouts almost invariably fall in them from the previous GE (the last occasions this didn't happen were in the 1980s) and often markedly so.
But it does not automatically follow that any occasion when their numerical vote falls is poor.
Labour did not fail to win Uxbridge primarily because their numerical vote was a bit down on 2019, but because the Tory numerical vote held up much better than expected (and, indeed, compared to the other two byelections last week)
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 24, 2023 11:27:01 GMT
We (and experts, and psephologists, and journalists) mostly analyse election results in terms of percentages and swings - presumably because, in the long-run, it has turned out to be most useful and informative to do it that way, as a method of analysis and prediction. In an alternative universe, election results are routinely analysed in terms of raw numbers of votes, or as percentages of the electorate instead of percentages of the turnout. In that universe, people equally understand that most by-elections have votes going down for most parties, and it's just a matter of comparing which. Do you? That is interesting. Is that the only valid analysis? I wonder whether that approach could be a bit limiting? Even narrow minded? Perhaps your're right. Perhaps there is nothing in the idea that a party's vote can go up in a by-election. Yes, that is how people who know what they’re actually blathering on about record election results, heck even our dumb cousins across the Atlantic record election results by percentage rather than raw votes cast, as do the various State, Territory and Electoral Commissions in Australia. And those pesky Europeans, Scottish and Northern Ireland councils, and a chunk of the New Zealand parliament require you to actually meet a percentage threshold in order to get elected. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 24, 2023 11:27:27 GMT
I knew Labour would (Rui)slip up. They yiewsuley do in this constituency |
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,341
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Post by weld on Jul 24, 2023 11:32:32 GMT
I knew Labour would (Rui)slip up. They yiewsuley do in this constituency Winning was an (Ux)bridge too far for Labour. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,054
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 24, 2023 11:42:45 GMT
They yiewsuley do in this constituency Winning was an (Ux)bridge too far for Labour. Is that you Lord Attenborough? |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 24, 2023 11:43:58 GMT
It’s a good job I don’t enter the prediction competition, I could’ve sworn Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election which they were defending. and the labour vote didn't go down in Uxbridge by election Labour's vote reduced by 4,671. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 24, 2023 11:44:57 GMT
We (and experts, and psephologists, and journalists) mostly analyse election results in terms of percentages and swings - presumably because, in the long-run, it has turned out to be most useful and informative to do it that way, as a method of analysis and prediction. In an alternative universe, election results are routinely analysed in terms of raw numbers of votes, or as percentages of the electorate instead of percentages of the turnout. In that universe, people equally understand that most by-elections have votes going down for most parties, and it's just a matter of comparing which. Do you? That is interesting. Is that the only valid analysis? I wonder whether that approach could be a bit limiting? Even narrow minded? Perhaps your're right. Perhaps there is nothing in the idea that a party's vote can go up in a by-election. I was merely making the point that election results are mostly (in most countries, by most people) analysed in terms of percentages of the turnout rather than as a share of the electorate. That is presumably because it is a tried-and-tested method which most people find most useful most of the time. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 24, 2023 11:46:45 GMT
Do you? That is interesting. Is that the only valid analysis? I wonder whether that approach could be a bit limiting? Even narrow minded? Perhaps your're right. Perhaps there is nothing in the idea that a party's vote can go up in a by-election. Yes, that is how people who know what they’re actually blathering on about record election results, heck even our dumb cousins across the Atlantic record election results by percentage rather than raw votes cast, as do the various State, Territory and Electoral Commissions in Australia. And those pesky Europeans, Scottish and Northern Ireland councils, and a chunk of the New Zealand parliament require you to actually meet a percentage threshold in order to get elected. In France there is an example of doing it the other way round: in parliamentary elections a candidate qualifies to get into the 2nd round if they have votes from one-eighth of the electorate. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 24, 2023 11:47:43 GMT
I knew Labour would (Rui)slip up. When I first became interested in elections as a teenager, I mis-read the name "Ruislip" and for a while I thought it was pronounced "Roo-ee-slop". |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,173
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 24, 2023 11:49:47 GMT
Winning was an (Ux)bridge too far for Labour. Is that you Lord Attenborough?  |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 24, 2023 17:34:25 GMT
I like to analyse election results in terms of share of the electorate, mostly because the results can be surprising. But surely you need to compare like with like, not a by election deciding only the face of the local mp with a general election!
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 24, 2023 17:47:54 GMT
I like to analyse election results in terms of share of the electorate, mostly because the results can be surprising. But surely you need to compare like with like, not a by election deciding only the face of the local mp with a general election! All kinds of analysis can be useful; there's nothing wrong with unorthodox. If you limit what you look at, you limit what you can see. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 24, 2023 17:58:53 GMT
I like to analyse election results in terms of share of the electorate, mostly because the results can be surprising. But surely you need to compare like with like, not a by election deciding only the face of the local mp with a general election! All kinds of analysis can be useful; there's nothing wrong with unorthodox. If you limit what you look at, you limit what you can see.Thank you Confucius woolly  |
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Post by batman on Jul 24, 2023 18:16:37 GMT
I knew Labour would (Rui)slip up. They yiewsuley do in this constituency in a remarkably repetitive Manor |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 25, 2023 16:04:09 GMT
I like to analyse election results in terms of share of the electorate, mostly because the results can be surprising. But surely you need to compare like with like, not a by election deciding only the face of the local mp with a general election! This one caused a significant change to the MP's hair as well as his face... |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 26, 2023 16:15:21 GMT
After a few days of reflection, I am feeling remarkably chipper about all of these. The Tories got two richly deserved kickings, but Labour has little to crow about.
Uxbridge is a really great result. If Johnson had shown some courage and stood his ground, he would have been the Conservative candidate. If he had won, the story would all be about Boris. If he had lost the story would all be about Boris. He bottled it and is history.
Instead, the campaign became about ULEZ but the result is about the cost of living crisis and the distinction between policies justified by Climate Anxiety and policies justified by air pollution has been totally lost. This is terrific.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 26, 2023 16:42:19 GMT
After a few days of reflection, I am feeling remarkably chipper about all of these. The Tories got two richly deserved kickings, but Labour has little to crow about. Uxbridge is a really great result. If Johnson had shown some courage and stood his ground, he would have been the Conservative candidate. If he had won, the story would all be about Boris. If he had lost the story would all be about Boris. He bottled it and is history. Instead, the campaign became about ULEZ but the result is about the cost of living crisis and the distinction between policies justified by Climate Anxiety and policies justified by air pollution has been totally lost. This is terrific. You surely meant terrible. |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 20, 2023 15:35:24 GMT
There are surprising, not obvious similarities between 5 of the last 6 by-elections. Firstly consider the turnout. | Constituency | 2023 Turnout | 2019 Turnout | Difference | 2023 total votes | 2019 total votes | Difference | | Selby & Ainsty | 44.8% | 72.0% | -27.2% | 35,807 | 56,418 | -20,611 | | Somerton & Frome | 44.2% | 75.6% | -31.4% | 38,788 | 64,896 | -26,108 | | Uxbridge & South Ruislip | 46.2% | 68.5% | -22.3% | 30,925 | 48,187 | -17,262 | | Rutherglen & Hamiton West | 37.2% | 66.5% | -29.3% | 30,477 | 53,794 | -23,317 | | Mid Bedfordshire | 44.1% | 76.7% | -32.4% | 40,720
| 64,717 | -23,997 | | Tamworth | 35.9% | -64.3% | -28.4% | 25,586
| 46,056 | -20,470 | | Total |
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| 202,303 | 334,068 | -131,765 |
The total number of votes cast in the 6 by-elections was over 130,000 fewer, or only around 60%, of that in the 2019 General Election. Then the difference by party. | Constituency | Conservative | Labour | SNP | Liberal
Democrat | Green | Reform /
Reclaim | Other | Total | | Selby & Ainsty | -21,700 | +2,598 | - | -3,654 | +15 | +1,332 | +798 | -20,611 | | Somerton & Frome | -26,051 | -7,345 | - | +4,170 | +649 | +1,303 | +1,166 | -26,108 | | Rutherglen & Hamilton West | -6,862 | -700 | -15,376 | -1,896 | +601 | +403 | +513 | -23,317 | | Mid Bedfordshire | -26,012 | -156 | - | +1,249 | -1,746 | +1,487 | +1,181 | -23,997 | | Tamworth | -20,139 | +811 | - | -2,009 | -518 | +1,373 | +12 | -20,470 | | Sub-total | -100,764 | -4,792 | -15,376 | -2,140 | -999 | +5,898 | +3,670 | -114,503 | | Uxbridge & South Ruislip | -11,386 | -4,671 | - | -2,500 | -197 | +714 | +778 | -17,262 | | Total | -112,150 | -9,463 | -15,376 | -4,640 | -1,196 | +6,612 | 4,448 | -131,765 |
Across all 6 by-elections the 5 larger parties all polled fewer votes than during the 2019 General Election but with Reform / Reclaim (from nothing) and net Others polling some 11,000 more votes (achieving a 5½% share) than in 2019. Then consider grouping the two parties of Government (Conservative and SNP) and Labour / Liberal Democrat for the 5 seats that changed hands. Constituency
/ vote change | Conservative | SNP | Conservative + SNP | Total vote change | Con +SNP /
Total vote change | Labour +
Liberal Democrat | All Others | | Selby & Ainsty | -21,700 |
| -21,700 | -20,611 | 105% | -1,056 | +2,130 | Somerton & Frome
| -26,051 |
| -26,051 | -26,108 | 100% | -3,175 | +2,469 | | Rutherglen & Hamiton West | -6,862 | -15,376 | -22,238 | -23,317 | 95% | -2,596 | +916 | | Mid Bedfordshire | -26,012 |
| -26,012 | -23,997 | 108% | +1,093 | +2,668 | | Tamworth | -20,139 |
| -20,139 | -20,470 | 98% | -1,198 | +1,385 | | Total | -100,764 | -15,376 | -116,140 | -114,503 | 101% | -6,932 | +9,568 |
There is little indication that Conservative voters (and SNP in Rutherglen & Hamilton West) switched to other parties in large numbers. Over 65% of previous Conservatives went on "strike" and stayed at home, except in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, where there was something to vote against, when it was around 45%. Sunak and Hunt's task is to somehow enthuse previous Conservative voters to turn out next year. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 778
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Post by Sg1 on Oct 20, 2023 16:17:56 GMT
Very strong indicator that we are in for a Labour government with a good majority, but much more doubtful that Labour will retain last night's gains at a general election.
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,080
Member is Online
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Post by swanarcadian on Oct 20, 2023 17:11:54 GMT
Well for me it’s been a triple whammy because I’m in bed with flu at the moment.
But I congratulate our Labour friends on this forum; I think you’re heading for Number 10 after a very long wait. It’s part and parcel of our democracy and we can’t always win. Maybe Uxbridge really was a one off result.
I still hold out hope that the Conservative Party can win at least 200 seats at the general election; it’s very important that we have an effective opposition. But I fear it’s not going to work out that way.
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