The Liberal Democrat target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures. Only seats with Lib Dems within 35% of the leader are shown.
Rank
Constituency
Held by
L Dem place†
L Dem behind %
Maj. ††
1
Carshalton and Wallington
C
1.28
629
2
North East Fife
SNP
1.40
728
3
Wimbledon
C
1.48
839
4
Sheffield Hallam
Lab
1.84
1,108
5
South Cambridgeshire
C
2.49
1,498
6
Cheltenham
C
2.50
1,421
7
Mid Dunbartonshire
SNP
3.39
1,986
8
Cheadle
C
4.18
2,336
9
Eastbourne
C
4.23
2,168
10
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
SNP
5.29
2,788
11
Esher and Walton
C
5.37
3,015
12
Guildford
C
5.93
3,117
13
Lewes
C
7.42
4,126
14
Hazel Grove
C
8.36
4,219
15
Westmorland and Lonsdale
C
9.48
5,140
16
St Ives
C
9.70
5,227
17
Finchley and Golders Green
C
11.96
6,629
18
Cities of London and Westminster
C
Third
12.10
5,976
19
Winchester
C
14.16
9,050
20
Taunton and Wellington
C
15.68
8,536
21
Harrogate and Knaresborough
C
15.82
8,787
22
Cambridge
Lab
16.28
8,099
23
Ceredigion Preseli
PC
Fourth
16.42
1,443
24
Sutton and Cheam
C
16.54
8,351
25
Woking
C
17.20
8,683
26
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
C
17.39
9,091
27
Eastleigh
C
17.43
8,641
28
Didcot and Wantage
C
18.44
10,023
29
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Lab
18.56
8,515
30
Kensington and Bayswater
Lab
Third
18.88
390
31
Dorking and Horley
C
19.05
10,381
32
Godalming and Ash
C
19.25
10,720
33
West Dorset
C
21.43
12,388
34
Chelsea and Fulham
C
Third
21.64
8,993
35
Henley and Thame
C
22.10
11,901
36
Newbury
C
22.48
11,460
37
Wokingham
C
23.18
12,750
38
Hitchin
C
Third
23.35
11,264
39
Hampstead and Highgate
Lab
23.35
13,400
40
City of Durham
Lab
Third
24.00
4,657
41
Beckenham and Penge
Lab
Third
24.04
631
42
Watford
C
Third
24.26
1,300
43
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
C
24.48
12,250
44
Ely and East Cambridgeshire
C
24.69
13,449
45
South Devon
C
25.32
13,719
46
Wells and Mendip Hills
C
25.33
14,295
47
Mid Sussex
C
25.81
13,665
48
Frome and East Somerset
C
25.84
12,395
49
Thornbury and Yate
C
25.92
14,538
50
Chippenham
C
26.13
13,200
51
Farnham and Bordon
C
26.55
13,577
52
North Devon
C
26.65
14,813
53
Glastonbury and Somerton
C
26.66
14,183
54
Tunbridge Wells
C
26.80
14,645
55
Earley and Woodley
C
Third
26.95
11,293
56
Harpenden and Berkhamsted
C
26.99
15,044
57
Yeovil
C
27.04
14,638
58
Leeds North West
C
Third
27.12
2,001
59
Bicester and Woodstock
C
27.32
14,205
60
Putney
Lab
Third
27.43
4,416
61
North Norfolk
C
28.11
14,492
62
Lothian East
SNP
Fourth
28.51
2,207
63
Chelmsford
C
28.64
15,416
64
North Cornwall
C
29.19
15,783
65
Epsom and Ewell
C
29.37
16,856
66
Romsey and Southampton North
C
29.71
16,251
67
Aylesbury
C
Third
29.81
16,640
68
Surrey Heath
C
29.83
15,552
69
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
SNP
Fourth
29.85
3,220
70
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
SNP
Third
30.03
4,897
71
Mid Dorset and North Poole
C
30.18
16,570
72
South Cotswolds
C
30.25
16,092
73
Newcastle upon Tyne North
Lab
Third
30.35
6,823
74
Runnymede and Weybridge
C
30.52
16,072
75
Melksham and Devizes
C
30.54
17,028
76
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
C
Fourth
30.93
843
77
York Outer
C
Third
30.96
10,782
78
Horsham
C
31.07
17,353
79
Battersea
Lab
Third
31.21
6,026
80
Edinburgh North and Leith
SNP
Fourth
31.28
12,983
81
Rushcliffe
C
Third
31.38
7,354
82
Chesterfield
Lab
Third
31.39
1,451
83
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley
Lab
Third
31.40
1,082
84
Hornsey and Friern Barnet
Lab
31.61
16,607
85
Banbury
C
Third
31.61
13,799
86
Wycombe
C
Third
31.78
1,494
87
Witney
C
32.09
15,674
88
Warwick and Leamington
Lab
Third
32.41
1,169
89
Burnley
C
Third
32.78
127
90
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
C
Fourth
33.27
3,626
91
Newton Abbot
C
33.31
17,456
92
Hartlepool
Lab
Fourth
33.55
3,595
93
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire
SNP
Third
33.55
12,865
94
Maidenhead
C
33.59
17,101
95
Chesham and Amersham*
C
33.91
18,216
96
Wakefield and Rothwell
C
Third
33.94
2,626
97
Brentford and Isleworth
Lab
Third
34.01
11,369
98
Bedford
Lab
Third
34.31
1,113
99
Rotherham
Lab
Fourth
34.42
3,297
100
Houghton and Sunderland South
Lab
Fourth
34.46
3,271
101
Midlothian
SNP
Fourth
34.51
5,705
102
Aberdeen South
SNP
Third
34.57
5,463
103
Gordon and Buchan
C
Third
34.61
3,224
104
Doncaster North
Lab
Fourth
34.71
2,070
105
Bathgate and Linlithgow
SNP
Fourth
34.79
8,671
106
Torbay
C
34.83
17,751
107
Gateshead Central and Whickham
Lab
Third
34.86
5,911
108
Ealing Central and Acton
Lab
Third
34.95
14,133
109
Barnsley North
Lab
Fourth
34.97
4,002
* Affected by lack of Liberal Democrat candidate in Beaconsfield in 2019
Caveat: Guildford and Harpenden & Berkahmsted's notionals are affected by the good result of an Independent candidate who won over a lot of votes that would have gone to the Liberal Democrats in 2019 otherwise.
I know it’s because the winning party got a relatively low share but I wouldn’t have thought that Rotherham would be in the Lib Dems top 100 targets!
For comparison, these are the seats where the margin was between 35% and 45% (i.e. off the bottom of that list from the BBC), and also where the Lib Dems came second to the Conservatives:
East Grinstead and Uckfield 35.45%
Stratford-on-Avon 35.51%
Salisbury 35.74%
Reigate 35.95%
Tewkesbury 36.10%
East Hampshire 37.29%
Chichester 38.46%
North East Hampshire 39.54%
Maidstone and Malling 39.77%
East Surrey 39.95%
Hamble Valley 41.18%
North Cotswolds 41.34%
Arundel and South Downs 41.49%
North West Hampshire 41.61%
Mid Buckinghamshire 41.77%
Tiverton and Minehead 41.82%
Torridge and Tavistock 41.89%
North West Essex 42.02%
Fareham and Waterlooville 42.23%
Sevenoaks 42.33%
West Worcestershire 42.58%
North Dorset 43.38%
Whilst they're all long shots, I find it easier to imagine one or two of those seats going Lib Dem than somewhere like Rotherham!
Personally I tend to think a multiplicative formula works better here. A seat where the Lib Dems are on 20% and the Tories are on 50% seems to me a much more plausible target than one where they are on 5% and the winner took 30% of the vote. In the former the leading candidate won 2.5 times as many votes as the Lib Dem; in the latter the difference is a factor of 6.
Last Edit: Jan 21, 2024 21:23:08 GMT by bjornhattan
The Liberal Democrat target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures. Only seats with Lib Dems within 35% of the leader are shown.
Rank
Constituency
Held by
L Dem place†
L Dem behind %
Maj. ††
1
Carshalton and Wallington
C
1.28
629
2
North East Fife
SNP
1.40
728
3
Wimbledon
C
1.48
839
4
Sheffield Hallam
Lab
1.84
1,108
5
South Cambridgeshire
C
2.49
1,498
6
Cheltenham
C
2.50
1,421
7
Mid Dunbartonshire
SNP
3.39
1,986
8
Cheadle
C
4.18
2,336
9
Eastbourne
C
4.23
2,168
10
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
SNP
5.29
2,788
11
Esher and Walton
C
5.37
3,015
12
Guildford
C
5.93
3,117
13
Lewes
C
7.42
4,126
14
Hazel Grove
C
8.36
4,219
15
Westmorland and Lonsdale
C
9.48
5,140
16
St Ives
C
9.70
5,227
17
Finchley and Golders Green
C
11.96
6,629
18
Cities of London and Westminster
C
Third
12.10
5,976
19
Winchester
C
14.16
9,050
20
Taunton and Wellington
C
15.68
8,536
21
Harrogate and Knaresborough
C
15.82
8,787
22
Cambridge
Lab
16.28
8,099
23
Ceredigion Preseli
PC
Fourth
16.42
1,443
24
Sutton and Cheam
C
16.54
8,351
25
Woking
C
17.20
8,683
26
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
C
17.39
9,091
27
Eastleigh
C
17.43
8,641
28
Didcot and Wantage
C
18.44
10,023
29
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Lab
18.56
8,515
30
Kensington and Bayswater
Lab
Third
18.88
390
31
Dorking and Horley
C
19.05
10,381
32
Godalming and Ash
C
19.25
10,720
33
West Dorset
C
21.43
12,388
34
Chelsea and Fulham
C
Third
21.64
8,993
35
Henley and Thame
C
22.10
11,901
36
Newbury
C
22.48
11,460
37
Wokingham
C
23.18
12,750
38
Hitchin
C
Third
23.35
11,264
39
Hampstead and Highgate
Lab
23.35
13,400
40
City of Durham
Lab
Third
24.00
4,657
41
Beckenham and Penge
Lab
Third
24.04
631
42
Watford
C
Third
24.26
1,300
43
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
C
24.48
12,250
44
Ely and East Cambridgeshire
C
24.69
13,449
45
South Devon
C
25.32
13,719
46
Wells and Mendip Hills
C
25.33
14,295
47
Mid Sussex
C
25.81
13,665
48
Frome and East Somerset
C
25.84
12,395
49
Thornbury and Yate
C
25.92
14,538
50
Chippenham
C
26.13
13,200
51
Farnham and Bordon
C
26.55
13,577
52
North Devon
C
26.65
14,813
53
Glastonbury and Somerton
C
26.66
14,183
54
Tunbridge Wells
C
26.80
14,645
55
Earley and Woodley
C
Third
26.95
11,293
56
Harpenden and Berkhamsted
C
26.99
15,044
57
Yeovil
C
27.04
14,638
58
Leeds North West
C
Third
27.12
2,001
59
Bicester and Woodstock
C
27.32
14,205
60
Putney
Lab
Third
27.43
4,416
61
North Norfolk
C
28.11
14,492
62
Lothian East
SNP
Fourth
28.51
2,207
63
Chelmsford
C
28.64
15,416
64
North Cornwall
C
29.19
15,783
65
Epsom and Ewell
C
29.37
16,856
66
Romsey and Southampton North
C
29.71
16,251
67
Aylesbury
C
Third
29.81
16,640
68
Surrey Heath
C
29.83
15,552
69
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
SNP
Fourth
29.85
3,220
70
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
SNP
Third
30.03
4,897
71
Mid Dorset and North Poole
C
30.18
16,570
72
South Cotswolds
C
30.25
16,092
73
Newcastle upon Tyne North
Lab
Third
30.35
6,823
74
Runnymede and Weybridge
C
30.52
16,072
75
Melksham and Devizes
C
30.54
17,028
76
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
C
Fourth
30.93
843
77
York Outer
C
Third
30.96
10,782
78
Horsham
C
31.07
17,353
79
Battersea
Lab
Third
31.21
6,026
80
Edinburgh North and Leith
SNP
Fourth
31.28
12,983
81
Rushcliffe
C
Third
31.38
7,354
82
Chesterfield
Lab
Third
31.39
1,451
83
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley
Lab
Third
31.40
1,082
84
Hornsey and Friern Barnet
Lab
31.61
16,607
85
Banbury
C
Third
31.61
13,799
86
Wycombe
C
Third
31.78
1,494
87
Witney
C
32.09
15,674
88
Warwick and Leamington
Lab
Third
32.41
1,169
89
Burnley
C
Third
32.78
127
90
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
C
Fourth
33.27
3,626
91
Newton Abbot
C
33.31
17,456
92
Hartlepool
Lab
Fourth
33.55
3,595
93
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire
SNP
Third
33.55
12,865
94
Maidenhead
C
33.59
17,101
95
Chesham and Amersham*
C
33.91
18,216
96
Wakefield and Rothwell
C
Third
33.94
2,626
97
Brentford and Isleworth
Lab
Third
34.01
11,369
98
Bedford
Lab
Third
34.31
1,113
99
Rotherham
Lab
Fourth
34.42
3,297
100
Houghton and Sunderland South
Lab
Fourth
34.46
3,271
101
Midlothian
SNP
Fourth
34.51
5,705
102
Aberdeen South
SNP
Third
34.57
5,463
103
Gordon and Buchan
C
Third
34.61
3,224
104
Doncaster North
Lab
Fourth
34.71
2,070
105
Bathgate and Linlithgow
SNP
Fourth
34.79
8,671
106
Torbay
C
34.83
17,751
107
Gateshead Central and Whickham
Lab
Third
34.86
5,911
108
Ealing Central and Acton
Lab
Third
34.95
14,133
109
Barnsley North
Lab
Fourth
34.97
4,002
* Affected by lack of Liberal Democrat candidate in Beaconsfield in 2019
I can see 12 definite Lib Dem gains there, 15 potentially and when you allow for tactical voting 24 on a good night (which would take them to between 20 and 32 seats in Parliament)
"If you are going shoot musket balls at each other, at least have the decency to offer to pay the sixpence they cost!"
Personally I tend to think a multiplicative formula works better here. A seat where the Lib Dems are on 20% and the Tories are on 50% seems to me a much more plausible target than one where they are on 5% and the winner took 30% of the vote. In the former the leading candidate won 2.5 times as many votes as the Lib Dem; in the latter the difference is a factor of 6.
This works surprisingly well. Here's a list of the best 150 seats for the Lib Dems, ordered by their vote share as a percentage of the vote share of the leading non-Lib Dem party:
Rank - Winning party - Percentage - LD rank in last election - Constituency name 1 LD 166.43% First Bath
2 LD 166.22% First Twickenham
3 LD 159.17% First Kingston and Surbiton
4 LD 153.09% First Oxford West and Abingdon
5 LD 132.23% First Richmond Park
6 LD 131.84% First Orkney and Shetland
7 LD 127.21% First St Albans
8 LD 115.91% First Edinburgh West
9 Con 96.98% Second Carshalton and Wallington
10 SNP 96.59% Second North East Fife
11 Con 96.29% Second Wimbledon
12 Con 94.84% Second Cheltenham
13 Lab 94.72% Second Sheffield Hallam
14 Con 94.27% Second South Cambridgeshire
15 SNP 91.05% Second Mid Dunbartonshire
16 Con 91.02% Second Eastbourne
17 Con 90.91% Second Cheadle
18 Con 89.16% Second Esher and Walton
19 Con 86.85% Second Guildford
20 SNP 86.40% Second Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
21 Con 84.71% Second Lewes
22 Con 81.65% Second Hazel Grove
23 Con 81.09% Second Westmorland and Lonsdale
24 Con 80.20% Second St Ives
25 Con 73.78% Second Winchester
26 Con 72.68% Second Finchley and Golders Green
27 Con 70.00% Third Cities of London and Westminster
28 Con 69.84% Second Taunton and Wellington
29 Con 69.57% Second Harrogate and Knaresborough
30 Con 66.91% Second Sutton and Cheam
31 Con 66.39% Second Eastleigh
32 Lab 65.68% Second Cambridge
33 Con 64.35% Second Woking
34 Con 63.94% Second Godalming and Ash
35 Con 62.94% Second Didcot and Wantage
36 Con 62.77% Second Dorking and Horley
37 Con 62.69% Second Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
38 Lab 62.61% Second Bermondsey and Old Southwark
39 Con 60.52% Second West Dorset
40 Con 59.43% Second Henley and Thame
41 Con 59.18% Second Newbury
42 Con 58.23% Second Wokingham
43 Con 55.67% Second Thornbury and Yate
44 Con 55.30% Second Farnham and Bordon
45 Con 54.87% Second Wells and Mendip Hills
46 Con 54.23% Second Ely and East Cambridgeshire
47 Con 53.66% Second Chippenham
48 Con 53.66% Second Glastonbury and Somerton
49 Con 53.50% Second Yeovil
50 Con 52.94% Second North Devon
51 Con 52.74% Second South Devon
52 Con 52.40% Third Chelsea and Fulham
53 Con 52.28% Second St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
54 Con 51.93% Second North Norfolk
55 Lab 51.64% Third Kensington and Bayswater
56 Con 51.38% Second Tunbridge Wells
57 Lab 50.98% Second Hampstead and Highgate
58 Con 50.59% Second North Cornwall
59 Con 50.35% Third Hitchin
60 Con 49.73% Second Mid Dorset and North Poole
61 Con 49.68% Second Mid Sussex
62 Con 49.32% Second Bicester and Woodstock
63 Con 48.65% Second Romsey and Southampton North
64 Con 48.44% Second Surrey Heath
65 Con 48.37% Second Harpenden and Berkhamsted
66 Con 47.75% Second South Cotswolds
67 Con 47.65% Second Chelmsford
68 Con 47.58% Second Frome and East Somerset
69 Con 47.16% Second Melksham and Devizes
70 PC 47.12% Fourth Ceredigion Preseli
71 Con 45.19% Second Epsom and Ewell
72 Lab 44.79% Second Hornsey and Friern Barnet
73 Con 44.73% Third Earley and Woodley
74 Con 44.72% Second Witney
75 Con 44.30% Second Horsham
76 Con 42.66% Second Runnymede and Weybridge
77 Con 42.34% Third Aylesbury
78 Con 42.25% Third Watford
79 Con 41.48% Second Maidenhead
80 Lab 41.37% Third City of Durham
81 Con 41.04% Second Torbay
82 Con 41.00% Second Stratford-on-Avon
83 Con 40.05% Second Newton Abbot
84 Lab 40.04% Third Beckenham and Penge
85 Con 39.81% Second Chesham and Amersham
86 Con 39.36% Second East Grinstead and Uckfield
87 Con 39.15% Third Banbury
88 Lab 38.12% Third Putney
89 Con 37.86% Second Tewkesbury
90 Con 37.62% Third York Outer
91 Con 36.81% Second East Hampshire
92 Con 36.13% Second North East Hampshire
93 Lab 35.78% Second Clapham and Brixton Hill
94 Con 35.60% Second Reigate
95 Con 35.31% Second Salisbury
96 Con 35.23% Third Leeds North West
97 Con 34.55% Second Chichester
98 Lab 34.55% Second Islington South and Finsbury
99 Con 33.83% Second Hamble Valley
100 Con 33.80% Second East Surrey
101 Con 33.71% Third Rushcliffe
102 Con 33.67% Third Windsor
103 Lab 33.17% Third Ealing Central and Acton
104 Lab 32.67% Third Battersea
105 Lab 32.43% Third Brentford and Isleworth
106 Con 32.03% Second Mid Buckinghamshire
107 SNP 32.01% Third Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
108 Con 31.95% Second North Dorset
109 Con 31.91% Second Maidstone and Malling
110 Con 31.90% Second North West Essex
111 Con 31.79% Second Tiverton and Minehead
112 Lab 31.61% Third Newcastle upon Tyne North
113 Lab 31.52% Second Vauxhall and Camberwell Green
114 Con 31.43% Second Sevenoaks
115 Con 31.36% Second Arundel and South Downs
116 Con 31.29% Third Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
117 Con 31.12% Third Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
118 SNP 31.06% Third Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire
119 Con 30.99% Third North Somerset
120 Con 30.96% Second Fareham and Waterlooville
121 Con 30.79% Third Aldershot
122 Con 30.74% Second North West Hampshire
123 Con 30.44% Third Bridgwater
124 Con 30.34% Second North Cotswolds
125 Lab 30.31% Third Streatham and Croydon North
126 Con 30.03% Third South Norfolk
127 Con 29.99% Second Torridge and Tavistock
128 Con 29.82% Second West Worcestershire
129 Con 29.76% Third Reading West and Mid Berkshire
130 Con 29.34% Third Bromley and Biggin Hill
131 Con 29.12% Third Morecambe and Lunesdale
132 Con 29.08% Third Buckingham and Bletchley
133 Con 28.76% Third North Northumberland
134 Con 28.66% Third Kenilworth and Southam
135 SNP 28.57% Fourth Edinburgh North and Leith
136 Con 28.27% Third South West Wiltshire
137 Con 28.26% Third Tatton
138 Con 28.14% Second Hinckley and Bosworth
139 Con 28.06% Third Colchester
140 Con 27.63% Third South East Cornwall
141 Con 27.48% Third West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
142 Con 27.44% Third North East Somerset and Hanham
143 Con 27.39% Third Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
Personally I tend to think a multiplicative formula works better here. A seat where the Lib Dems are on 20% and the Tories are on 50% seems to me a much more plausible target than one where they are on 5% and the winner took 30% of the vote. In the former the leading candidate won 2.5 times as many votes as the Lib Dem; in the latter the difference is a factor of 6.
Traditionally these lists are compiled by swing needed rather than margin behind first, which I think tends to come to more reasonable conclusions. Rotherham for example would come in at 327 on the Lib Dem target list, requiring a swing of 26.85% (to overcome not just Labour but the second placed Conservatives).