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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 23, 2023 16:00:55 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by election. 20th July 2023
The 17 candidates as a reminder are:
Kingsley Hamilton Anti Ulez (Independent)
Blaise Maxime Pascal Baquiche (Lib Dem)
Danny Boy Beales (Lab)
Cameron Swaran Bell (Independent)
Count Binface (Count Binface Party)
Piers Corbyn (Let London Live)
Laurence Fox (Reclaim)
Steve Gardner (SDP)
Ed Gemmell (Climate Party)
Sarah Charmian Green (Green)
Richard John Howard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Rebecca Jane (UKIP)
77 Joseph (Independent)
Enomfon Udoka Ntefon (Christian People's Alliance)
No Ulez Leo Phaure (Independent)
Steve Tuckwell (Con)
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 17 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 6 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 20th July 2023.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
Have Fun.
DHAA
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Post by PeopleLikeWe on Jun 26, 2023 17:37:25 GMT
Lab 38.5%
Con 36.3%
LD 6.6%
Grn 4.1%
Reclaim 2.9%
Binface 2.7%
ORMLP 1.4%
SDP 1.26%
UKIP 1.18%
Rejoin EU 1.01%
Climate 0.86%
CPA 0.75%
Let London Live 0.54%
Ind (Bell) 0.51%
Ind (Anti-Ulez) 0.50%
Ind (No Ulez) 0.44%
Ind (77 Joseph) 0.01%
Let's be honest, three of the four independents are standing on the same platform (Ulez). Would have been better to have had one and rally behind them. As for 77 Joseph...a weirdo (I read the thread and his website....yes he's familiar).
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jun 27, 2023 0:51:11 GMT
Lab 42.5%
Con 34.1%
LD 7.2%
Grn 3.8%
Binface 1.7%
ORMLP 1.5%
SDP 1.4%
UKIP 1.3%
Reclaim 1.1%
Climate 1.0%
CPA 0.90%
Ind (Anti-Ulez) 0.9%
Ind (No Ulez) 0.8%
Rejoin EU 0.6%
Let London Live 0.5%
Ind (Bell) 0.5%
Ind (77 Joseph) 0.2%
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Post by greenhert on Jun 27, 2023 7:39:27 GMT
My prediction:
Labour 50%
Conservative 30.5%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Green 4%
Reclaim 2.5%
Rejoin EU 0.8%
Climate 0.8%
OMRLP 0.7%
CPA 0.6%
UKIP 0.6%
Independent (Bell) 0.5%
SDP 0.5%
Independent (Anti Ulez) 0.4%
Let London Live 0.4%
Independent (Binface) 0.3%
Independent (Phaure) 0.3%
Independent (77 Joseph) 0.1%
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 27, 2023 16:24:34 GMT
Lab 38.5% Con 36.3% LD 6.6% Grn 4.1% Reclaim 2.9% Binface 2.7% ORMLP 1.4% SDP 1.26% UKIP 1.18% Rejoin EU 1.01% Climate 0.86% CPA 0.75% Let London Live 0.54% Ind (Bell) 0.51% Ind (Anti-Ulez) 0.50% Ind (No Ulez) 0.44% Ind (77 Joseph) 0.01% Let's be honest, three of the four independents are standing on the same platform (Ulez). Would have been better to have had one and rally behind them. As for 77 Joseph...a weirdo (I read the thread and his website....yes he's familiar).
PeopleLikeWe the competition asks for predictions to 1 decimal place, with rounding this prediction adds up to 99.6%, you may wish to adjust it. (The original only added up to 99.56%.) |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 27, 2023 16:29:46 GMT
Lab 42.5% Con 34.1% LD 7.2% Grn 3.8% Binface 1.7% ORMLP 1.5% SDP 1.4% UKIP 1.3% Reclaim 1.1% Climate 1.0% CPA 0.90% Ind (Anti-Ulez) 0.85% Ind (No Ulez) 0.80% Rejoin EU 0.60% Let London Live 0.55% Ind (Bell) 0.50% Ind (77 Joseph) 0.20%
peterl the competition asks for predictions to 1 decimal place, with rounding this prediction adds up to 100.1%, you may wish to adjust it. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 27, 2023 18:42:40 GMT
Lab 38.5% Con 36.3% LD 6.6% Grn 4.1% Reclaim 2.9% Binface 2.7% ORMLP 1.4% SDP 1.26% UKIP 1.18% Rejoin EU 1.01% Climate 0.86% CPA 0.75% Let London Live 0.54% Ind (Bell) 0.51% Ind (Anti-Ulez) 0.50% Ind (No Ulez) 0.44% Ind (77 Joseph) 0.01% Let's be honest, three of the four independents are standing on the same platform (Ulez). Would have been better to have had one and rally behind them. As for 77 Joseph...a weirdo (I read the thread and his website....yes he's familiar).
PeopleLikeWe the competition asks for predictions to 1 decimal place, with rounding this prediction adds up to 99.6%, you may wish to adjust it. (The original only added up to 99.56%.) Surely you are acting as Nanny State to a thick elector who cannot read or cannot be bothered to comply? Let him endure the penalties. |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 27, 2023 19:38:43 GMT
PeopleLikeWe the competition asks for predictions to 1 decimal place, with rounding this prediction adds up to 99.6%, you may wish to adjust it. (The original only added up to 99.56%.) Surely you are acting as Nanny State to a thick elector who cannot read or cannot be bothered to comply? Let him endure the penalties. There's no actual prize involved, if there were I'd run it differently. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 27, 2023 20:03:15 GMT
Surely you are acting as Nanny State to a thick elector who cannot read or cannot be bothered to comply? Let him endure the penalties. There's no actual prize involved, if there were I'd run it differently. It was a throw-away remark alluding back to the Nanny State argument in other threads. Not serious. But I am truly amazed at the widespread inability by members to fail to add up to 100. |
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peterl
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Posts: 8,249
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Post by peterl on Jun 27, 2023 21:32:02 GMT
There's no actual prize involved, if there were I'd run it differently. It was a throw-away remark alluding back to the Nanny State argument in other threads. Not serious. But I am truly amazed at the widespread inability by members to fail to add up to 100. I can add up to 100, I simply did not read the instructions carefully enough. Anyhow, predictions revised. |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 28, 2023 6:46:33 GMT
It was a throw-away remark alluding back to the Nanny State argument in other threads. Not serious. But I am truly amazed at the widespread inability by members to fail to add up to 100. I can add up to 100, I simply did not read the instructions carefully enough. Anyhow, predictions revised.
And accepted. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 28, 2023 7:49:51 GMT
I can add up to 100, I simply did not read the instructions carefully enough. Anyhow, predictions revised.
And accepted. You are polite and he is in denial. |
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 28, 2023 10:15:24 GMT
I haven't studied the rules of prediction competitions fully but I would have thought that anyone submitting an entry that didn't add up to 100% is only handicapping themselves anyway.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 5, 2023 17:13:15 GMT
Beales (Lab) 52.8
Tuckwell (Con) 35.7
Baquiche (LD) 3.8
Green (Green) 2.9
Hewison (Rejoin EU) 1.1
Fox (Reclaim) 0.8
Gardner (SDP) 0.5
Hope (OMRLP) 0.4
Jane (UKIP) 0.4
Corbyn (Let London Live) 0.3
Gemmell (Climate) 0.3
Hamilton Anti Ulez (Ind) 0.2
Binface (Binface) 0.2
Ntefon (CPA) 0.2
Bell (Ind) 0.2
Darwood (Ind) 0.1
Phaure (Ind) 0.1
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Post by kevinf on Jul 13, 2023 13:26:25 GMT
Lab 50
Con 29
Green 6.5
LibDem 6
Reclaim 2.6
SDP 1.2
OMRLP 1.1
Rejoin EU 1
Ukip 0.6
Climate 0.5
Ind Hamilton 0.4
CPA 0.4
LetLondonLive 0.3
Ind Bell 0.1
Ind Darwood 0.1
Ind Phaure 0.1
Binface 0.1
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jul 14, 2023 7:52:22 GMT
Lab 50 Con 29 Green 6.5 LibDem 6 Reclaim 2.6 SDP 1.2 OMRLP 1.1 Rejoin EU 1 Ukip 0.6 Climate 0.5 Ind Hamilton 0.4 CPA 0.4 LetLondonLive 0.3 Ind Bell 0.2 Ind DarwoodInd Phaure 0.1 Binface 0.1
You might want to check your figures as I think that adds up to 100.1% if both Darwood and Phaure are predicted at 0.1.
It adds up to 100 if Darwood is 0%.
Please clarify.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 14, 2023 8:02:00 GMT
Lab 50 Con 29 Green 6.5 LibDem 6 Reclaim 2.6 SDP 1.2 OMRLP 1.1 Rejoin EU 1 Ukip 0.6 Climate 0.5 Ind Hamilton 0.4 CPA 0.4 LetLondonLive 0.3 Ind Bell 0.2 Ind DarwoodInd Phaure 0.1 Binface 0.1
You might want to check your figures as I think that adds up to 100.1%
I don't think so? |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 14, 2023 8:05:47 GMT
Lab 50 Con 29 Green 6.5 LibDem 6 Reclaim 2.6 SDP 1.2 OMRLP 1.1 Rejoin EU 1 Ukip 0.6 Climate 0.5 Ind Hamilton 0.4 CPA 0.4 LetLondonLive 0.3 Ind Bell 0.2 Ind DarwoodInd Phaure 0.1 Binface 0.1
You might want to check your figures as I think that adds up to 100.1%
He's being thorough |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jul 14, 2023 8:07:05 GMT
You might want to check your figures as I think that adds up to 100.1%
I don't think so?
It caught me out a first too, but one line of his post has 2 candidates on it but only only 1 value predicted.
Ind DarwoodInd Phaure 0.1
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 14, 2023 8:13:51 GMT
It caught me out a first too, but one line of his post has 2 candidates on it but only only 1 value predicted.
Ind DarwoodInd Phaure 0.1
I assumed it was one line per candidate and a mistype. But if it is two candidates with one having no value expressed, because there IS no value expressed. So it is accurate. |
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