johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 14, 2023 11:27:53 GMT
Surprised there hasn't been a thread on this election considering Prayut Chan-o-cha, leader of the 2014 coup and prime minister since, is likely to lose the election quite decisively. He even jumped ship from his old party given its reputation was so heavily tarnished.
Another Shinawatra (Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter this time) has led polls for some time, though Pita Limjaroenrat's Move Forward Party has seen a surge in support.
There are the common issues of high inflation, wage stagnation and faltering public services, subsidies for the poor and farmers. Then, of course for Thailand, there is the whole military/ monarchy issue which is probably a bigger issue in this election than it has been for some time.
Polls have just closed and final polls/ exit polls are a bit mixed - but the MFP does seem to have overperformed what polls had previously suggested. Though there are questions about whether they are too radical and whether the military would allow them into government. Thailand and military coups are basically synonymous.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 14, 2023 12:20:04 GMT
Move Forward looks to be doing very well
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2023 13:40:21 GMT
Surprised there hasn't been a thread on this election considering Prayut Chan-o-cha, leader of the 2014 coup and prime minister since, is likely to lose the election quite decisively. He even jumped ship from his old party given its reputation was so heavily tarnished.
Another Shinawatra (Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter this time) has led polls for some time, though Pita Limjaroenrat's Move Forward Party has seen a surge in support.
There are the common issues of high inflation, wage stagnation and faltering public services, subsidies for the poor and farmers. Then, of course for Thailand, there is the whole military/ monarchy issue which is probably a bigger issue in this election than it has been for some time.
Polls have just closed and final polls/ exit polls are a bit mixed - but the MFP does seem to have overperformed what polls had previously suggested. Though there are questions about whether they are too radical and whether the military would allow them into government. Thailand and military coups are basically synonymous.
How tarnished or otherwise is the monarchy by connections to the military? Or has it managing to stay somewhat out of things? I saw the King was at the Coronation. Not very used to seeing him making trips abroad. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 14, 2023 14:44:43 GMT
How tarnished or otherwise is the monarchy by connections to the military? Or has it managing to stay somewhat out of things? I saw the King was at the Coronation. Not very used to seeing him making trips abroad. The current monarch's reputation was incredibly tarnished before his father passed. I'm not sure military connections have had any influence at all.
His reign has also given the military far more power as he a) doesn't live in Thailand and b) has far less personally popularity and respect from officials, the military and the public at large.
Even since his enthronement, he has continued to reside primarily in Germany rather than Thailand. His son, and heir, continues to attend school in Germany. More seldom are the trips abroad to the country he actually reigns over.
This, of course, all illegal to say in Thailand due to strict lese majeste laws
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2023 15:50:32 GMT
How tarnished or otherwise is the monarchy by connections to the military? Or has it managing to stay somewhat out of things? I saw the King was at the Coronation. Not very used to seeing him making trips abroad. The current monarch's reputation was incredibly tarnished before his father passed. I'm not sure military connections have had any influence at all.
His reign has also given the military far more power as he a) doesn't live in Thailand and b) has far less personally popularity and respect from officials, the military and the public at large.
Even since his enthronement, he has continued to reside primarily in Germany rather than Thailand. His son, and heir, continues to attend school in Germany. More seldom are the trips abroad to the country he actually reigns over.
This, of course, all illegal to say in Thailand due to strict lese majeste laws
Oh I didn’t realise he wasn’t resident in Thailand! |
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Post by iainbhx on May 14, 2023 16:31:19 GMT
The current monarch's reputation was incredibly tarnished before his father passed. I'm not sure military connections have had any influence at all.
His reign has also given the military far more power as he a) doesn't live in Thailand and b) has far less personally popularity and respect from officials, the military and the public at large.
Even since his enthronement, he has continued to reside primarily in Germany rather than Thailand. His son, and heir, continues to attend school in Germany. More seldom are the trips abroad to the country he actually reigns over.
This, of course, all illegal to say in Thailand due to strict lese majeste laws
Oh I didn’t realise he wasn’t resident in Thailand! Spends a lot of time in a very fancy hotel in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 14, 2023 16:46:57 GMT
Move Forward looks to be doing very well Definitely! Much better than polls before the election suggested.
It's now clear the anti-military parties will have a very comfortable majority in parliament.
Let the fun and games begin!
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on May 14, 2023 16:59:35 GMT
They abolished the monarchy in Nepal because the new king was a booliak, and didn’t have the political nous or tact or ability of the previous king (ignoring th e suicidal king who came in between). If the new king of Thailand had any sense, then he would tell the politicians to get rid of the lèse-majesté law on the grounds that it is illiberal, unnecessary, outdated, etc., and there would perhaps be not too much fuss about it. But the new king of Thailand is also a booliak and doesn’t have the sense to do that.
I’m not an expert but i am guessing that it is illegal to advocate the repeal of the lèse-majesté law just as much as it is to criticise the king in the first place, so there is a catch-22 situation in which the law won’t be repealed until there is a new sensible king. Or it will just make it more likely that there will be a revolution or assassination than there would otherwise be.
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Post by rcronald on May 14, 2023 17:20:44 GMT
Surprised MFP wasn’t outlawed.
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Post by rcronald on May 14, 2023 17:28:37 GMT
Looking at MFP’s comments now, and they are borderline asking for civil war…
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 14, 2023 21:06:38 GMT
Move Forward looks to be doing very well Definitely! Much better than polls before the election suggested.
It's now clear the anti-military parties will have a very comfortable majority in parliament.
Let the fun and games begin!
No, they would need 375/500 seats to overcome the Senators, which are elected by the military. But after this shock the latter will probably be very willing to coalition with the Thaksins (what they should have - considering, that Thaksin was anti-establishment, but not directly anti-military, let alone anti-monarchy - done far earlier). |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 15, 2023 2:43:46 GMT
Definitely! Much better than polls before the election suggested.
It's now clear the anti-military parties will have a very comfortable majority in parliament.
Let the fun and games begin!
No, they would need 375/500 seats to overcome the Senators, which are elected by the military. But after this shock the latter will probably be very willing to coalition with the Thaksins (what they should have - considering, that Thaksin was anti-establishment, but not directly anti-military, let alone anti-monarchy - done far earlier).
When I said parliament, I meant the 500 members House of Representatives. 200 of the 250 senators are appointed by the Thai military and the other 50 through a convoluted process controlled by the military to 'represent' various groups so obviously anti-military parties haven't done well there. The PM is appointed by a vote of both houses.
That's why I said let the fun and games begin...
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 15, 2023 3:05:04 GMT
No, they would need 375/500 seats to overcome the Senators, which are elected by the military. But after this shock the latter will probably be very willing to coalition with the Thaksins (what they should have - considering, that Thaksin was anti-establishment, but not directly anti-military, let alone anti-monarchy - done far earlier).
When I said parliament, I meant the 500 members House of Representatives. 200 of the 250 senators are appointed by the Thai military and the other 50 through a convoluted process controlled by the military to 'represent' various groups so obviously anti-military parties haven't done well there. The PM is appointed by a vote of both houses.
That's why I said let the fun and games begin...
Misleadingly articulated then - no way the antiMilitary-bloc could reign from now on. (Unless the military's leadership is so shocked by MFP's 38% of PR-vote, that it prefers the smart way of allowing, hindering, stabbing it as soon as possible.) |
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Post by rcronald on May 15, 2023 5:06:59 GMT
When I said parliament, I meant the 500 members House of Representatives. 200 of the 250 senators are appointed by the Thai military and the other 50 through a convoluted process controlled by the military to 'represent' various groups so obviously anti-military parties haven't done well there. The PM is appointed by a vote of both houses.
That's why I said let the fun and games begin...
Misleadingly articulated then - no way the antiMilitary-bloc could reign from now on. (Unless the military's leadership is so shocked by MFP's 38% of PR-vote, that it prefers the smart way of allowing, hindering, stabbing it as soon as possible.) The MFP is behaving so badly at the moment that even if the military was willing to give them power before, they just can’t anymore. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 15, 2023 6:16:51 GMT
Misleadingly articulated then - no way the antiMilitary-bloc could reign from now on. (Unless the military's leadership is so shocked by MFP's 38% of PR-vote, that it prefers the smart way of allowing, hindering, stabbing it as soon as possible.) The MFP is behaving so badly at the moment that even if the military was willing to give them power before, they just can’t anymore. Oh, really? In what way? Extreme demands? Riots of supporters? |
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Post by rcronald on May 15, 2023 8:03:07 GMT
The MFP is behaving so badly at the moment that even if the military was willing to give them power before, they just can’t anymore. Oh, really? In what way? Extreme demands? Riots of supporters? flat out stating that the first thing they are going to pass is the repeal of lèse-majesté and compulsory military service. Edit: Btw, this is the military’s fault for not allowing the Shinawatra family democratically rule. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,792
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Post by iain on May 15, 2023 8:26:34 GMT
Pheu Thai (Shinawatra's party) has slightly surprisingly agreed to coalition talks with Move Forward, despite being the minor partner. While these two have a comfortable majority in the elected house, they aren't that close to the 375 needed when you take into account all the military appointed senators. I get what rcronald is saying, but the idea that Move Forward are behaving 'badly' is ridiculous. |
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Post by rcronald on May 15, 2023 8:46:33 GMT
Pheu Thai (Shinawatra's party) has slightly surprisingly agreed to coalition talks with Move Forward, despite being the minor partner. While these two have a comfortable majority in the elected house, they aren't that close to the 375 needed when you take into account all the military appointed senators. I get what rcronald is saying, but the idea that Move Forward are behaving 'badly' is ridiculous. Badly as in behaving and acting like they are still a radicalish student group (which I guess they technically are). |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,527
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Post by johng on May 15, 2023 9:34:10 GMT
Pheu Thai (Shinawatra's party) has slightly surprisingly agreed to coalition talks with Move Forward, despite being the minor partner. While these two have a comfortable majority in the elected house, they aren't that close to the 375 needed when you take into account all the military appointed senators. I get what rcronald is saying, but the idea that Move Forward are behaving 'badly' is ridiculous. It's hard to tell whether this is serious or a play from the Shinawatras to get the military to beg for them to form a coalition with pro-military parties. I'm leaning towards the latter tbh. A grand coalition between PT and the pro-military parties certainly seems most likely.
There is a big issue though when/ if MFP doesn't form a part of the government. The results of the election are a massive rebuke of the military and its leadership. Significant street protests and civil unrest is likely if they veto MFP forming/ taking part in a government.
Misleadingly articulated then - no way the antiMilitary-bloc could reign from now on. (Unless the military's leadership is so shocked by MFP's 38% of PR-vote, that it prefers the smart way of allowing, hindering, stabbing it as soon as possible.)
Perhaps. When someone says 'Labour landslide', they obviously don't mean in both houses. Though in Thailand the senate does vote on the PM I suppose.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 13, 2023 14:47:31 GMT
In the vote for Prime Minister, Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward, failed to be elected. An absolute majority of Representatives and Senators is required.
He won 311 of the 500 (elected) Representatives, but only 13 of the 250 (military-appointed) Senators backed him.
So overall:
324 voted in favour
182 voted against
199 abstained
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