Local Council by-election 1st June 2023

[Tony Otim]

CAMDEN LBC; South Hampstead (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
GALE, Tommy (Labour)
RUSSELL, Lorna Jane (Green)
STILLMAN, Patrick Thomas (Liberal Democrat)
WILLIAMS, Don (Conservative)

2022: Lab 1692, 1655, 1564; Con 976, 947, 931; LD 436, 424, 376

Don Williams was the top-placed Conservative here last May. Lorna Russell stood for the Greens in Highgate (coming 5th).

Current Council: Lab 45; LD 5; Con 3; Grn 1; 1 vacancy

[southernliberal]

I think it's likely Labour will hold this seat but it should be very interesting which party comes 2nd - I can see Lib Dems, Greens and Conservatives are all putting in effort so it could be a real battle for 2nd

[Davıd Boothroyd]

There's (as to be expected) a lively exchange between the candidates and their supporters going on in the letters page of the CNJ.

Note Don Williams was Conservative councillor for Swiss Cottage 2002-2018. Lorna Russell was Labour councillor for Fortune Green ward from 2014 until October 2021 when she defected to the Green Party.

[phil156]

Camden counts on Thursday after 2200

[John Chanin]

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-south-hampstead-camden-by-election-of-1st-june-2023-2b394c3986b1

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Turnout in South Hampstead is 30.22%.

Was 36.7% in last year's full council elections.

[samdwebber]

[olympian95]

Lab win

[timrollpickering]

Gale Labour 882
Russell Green 295
Stillwell Lib Dem 531
Williams Conservative 766

[johnloony]

Jun 1, 2023 23:32:30 GMT timrollpickering said:

Gale Labour 882
Russell Green 295
Stillwell Lib Dem 531
Williams Conservative 766

Lab 35.6% Con 31.0% LD 21.5% Grn 11.9%

[robert1]

            2023        2022

Lab      35.6           54.5
Con      31.0          31.4
LD        21.5           14.0
Grn      11.9              -

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 1, 2023 23:32:30 GMT timrollpickering said:

Gale Labour 882
Russell Green 295
Stillwell Lib Dem 531
Williams Conservative 766

Stillman for the LDs, surely?

[yellowperil]

I have a feeling this was a result with something in it for everyone. Labour held the seat, which surely for them is what mattered in the end. The Tories held their vote percentage, more or less, when most people would have expected a significant fall in line with national trends. The Lib Dems established a significant swing to them, and the Greens established a reasonable foothold. Prizes for all runners.

[andrewp]

Jun 2, 2023 6:33:47 GMT yellowperil said:

I have a feeling this was a result with something in it for everyone. Labour held the seat, which surely for them is what mattered in the end. The Tories held their vote percentage, more or less, when most people would have expected a significant fall in line with national trends. The Lib Dems established a significant swing to them, and the Greens established a reasonable foothold. Prizes for all runners.

My recollection is that most of the results in London since May 2022 have been a bit underwhelming for Labour, certainly in comparison to many other places. Although obviously the Greens standing this time would have been one of the major factors in the fall in the Labour vote.

Not a million miles away from a Tory gain with 30% of the vote which would have made the Progressive alliancers explode.

[Pete Whitehead]

I mean 2022 wasn't exactly a vintage year for the Conservatives in London

[iainbhx]

Jun 2, 2023 7:46:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I mean 2022 wasn't exactly a vintage year for the Conservatives in London

Indeed, seems like a decent result for the Tories to be honest.

[batman]

Labour now controls a helluva lot of London councils. Voters' perception of those Labour councils will vary a lot, with some being pretty popular, others much less so. In many by-elections there are bound to be local issues which don't necessarily reflect totally brilliantly on these Labour councils & yesterday's by-election (in which I knocked up for Labour, and in the light of the rather close result I'm pleased I did) is no exception. The Tories maintained their vote share by exploiting those issues & also putting up a strong & well-known candidate and the LDs & Greens clearly gained the great majority of their votes from Labour. The idea that Hampstead has a majority of wealthy socialist voters was never correct (even less so in Gaitskell's day when it was a safe Conservative seat) and it still isn't, Labour's successes in the area have been based on their strength in the less wealthy areas coupled with a rather higher-than-average level of support in the wealthiest areas, and parts of Hampstead are extremely wealthy. It's known that many very well-off workers in the financial sector live there, it isn't all right-on composers & university lecturers if indeed it ever was. South Hampstead has some scruffier bits mainly at the western & eastern ends of the ward but has some very exclusive residential areas too & the forecasts of a complete Conservative meltdown always seemed to me to be very unlikely, there is a Conservative core in several wards in the constituency including this one which will be very hard to wipe out.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

A controversial redevelopment of the O2 Centre on Finchley Road in the ward, which the Labour majority on the planning committee voted to grant, was one of the big issues. The opposition parties (but especially the Conservatives) had been trying to link Labour to the development for years, long before the byelection.

Given Labour is currently sitting on a very large majority on Camden council which would absolutely not be threatened by losing this seat, there wasn't much to be done in the campaign to highlight a fear of letting in the opposition. The Conservative candidate had a personal vote from many years when he represented a large part of the ward; the Lib Dems dragooned large numbers of campaigners from all over London, and the Green Party had an ex-Labour defector - in all those circumstances, Labour winning on a split opposition vote was probably the best realistic outcome.

[Pete Whitehead]

There's a ridiculous 20 mph speed limit on part of the Finchley Road here which must piss some people off (it does me). Not sure if thats the local council responsibility though

[The Bishop]

Jun 2, 2023 8:04:19 GMT iainbhx said:

Jun 2, 2023 7:46:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I mean 2022 wasn't exactly a vintage year for the Conservatives in London

Indeed, seems like a decent result for the Tories to be honest.

I read Pete's comment the opposite way if anything, the Tories not improving on their showing last year (notably poor in this council, as well as not great across London more generally) with a well known candidate was rather underwhelming, and made to look better by LibDems/Greens taking previous Labour votes.