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Post by heslingtonian on Feb 4, 2023 8:00:18 GMT
In terms of performance in Parliamentary seats, especially where they have a local base: Salisbury Chichester Bournemouth West Dorset West - despite repeated efforts Dorset North Totnes- not won it despite Wollaston joining them Woking Mole Valley Chelmsford Tunbridge Wells Maidenhead- except 2001 Wokingham York Outer Newcastle North Worcestershire West Stratford upon Avon Wantage Henley Saffron Walden Watford Hertfordshire South West |
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 4, 2023 8:28:52 GMT
Also, the Lib Dems were estimated on notional figures to be neck-and-neck with the Tories in 2010 in Central Devon, and in Meon Valley ; but they have been nowhere near not even in 2010. Indeed Central Devon is now a Labour target in these times of large Labour opinion poll leads.
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Post by londonseal80 on Feb 4, 2023 9:12:49 GMT
Wandsworth, Putney, Fulham - educated, middle class London outside of a couple of boroughs. York, Lancaster, Exeter, Canterbury, Norwich, Durham - small university cities compared to Bath, Oxford, Cambridge or Cheltenham. Large university cities like Oxford and Cambridge also have inner london characteristics as well which make them Labour strongholds. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 4, 2023 9:34:16 GMT
it would be a little unfair to say the LDs have underperformed in Oxford & Cambridge though
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Post by wysall on Feb 4, 2023 15:40:51 GMT
In terms of performance in Parliamentary seats, especially where they have a local base: Salisbury Chichester Bournemouth West Dorset West - despite repeated efforts Dorset North Totnes- not won it despite Wollaston joining them Woking Mole Valley Chelmsford Tunbridge Wells Maidenhead- except 2001 Wokingham York Outer Newcastle NorthWorcestershire West Stratford upon Avon Wantage Henley Saffron Walden Anyone know what the notional 2005 results for the revised Newcastle North (which joins Gosforth and Jesmond) would look like? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 8, 2023 19:34:10 GMT
Following owainsutton's summary for the Trafford seats, how about Tatton? There's clearly space for a decent anti-Tory vote on past form, two of the neighbouring seats have quite similar socio-economic demographics, it was a Remain-voting seat, and it is full of people who wouldn't vote Labour in a million years. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 11, 2023 13:16:01 GMT
I'm not sure it's necessarily 'serial', as the conditions for it have only really arisen in the past 20 years, but Saffron Walden seems like it ought to be a stronger seat for the Lib Dems than it is. Well-off, highly educated, only narrowly voted for Brexit, attractive as a commuter base for better off Cambridge workers and with a decent anti-Tory base in local elections (and indeed the Lib Dems ran the council 2003-2007.) Yet the Tory majority hasn't been below 10,000 since 1974 and the Lib Dems haven't even been able to rely on finishing second.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Feb 11, 2023 18:59:51 GMT
Everywhere less prosperous than Kingston-upon-Thames is the gratuitously rude version. The Lib Dems have become a sectional party for right-on elites and have lost the common touch. The way they got an abysmal 5 votes in Thursday night's by-election in Rhyl (Conservative gain from Labour, stick that in your liberal elite media narrative) is symptomatic of their utter irrelevance in most normal towns. If only the Loonies had stood...
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 11, 2023 19:13:57 GMT
the liberal elite lol. Who's been in charge the last 13 years?
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Feb 11, 2023 19:19:55 GMT
the liberal elite lol. Who's been in charge the last 13 years? Like we sacked all the actual elite: quangocrats, civil servants (kudos to Kwarteng for seeing off Scholar, but that's a rare exception), the senior judiciary, the Bank of England's "independent" (aka Lib Dem, aka Verhoftwat-leaning) monetary policy committee, the broadcast media, and so on. Fortunately for you, we've spent all that time dithering, with a significant mix of implementing fucking stupid policies that would be too stupid for Labour (aka the Pandemic). |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 11, 2023 19:51:11 GMT
Can I add Ceredigion to that list? As you know here in Wales we have Senedd elections as a mid term pointer to the Westminster elections and up until really quite recently the Lib Dem vote in the Senedd was a guide to the General
GE 1997: 6,616 SE 1999: 3,571
GE 2001: 9,297 SE 2003: 7,265
GE 2005: 13,130 SE 2007: 10,863
GE 2010: 19,139 SE 2011: 10,243
GE 2015: 13,414 SE 2016: 9,606
GE 2017: 11,519 No Senedd election in parliamentary term
GE 2019: 6,975 SE 2021: 3,227
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Post by grahammurray on Feb 11, 2023 19:54:47 GMT
Everywhere less prosperous than Kingston-upon-Thames is the gratuitously rude version. The Lib Dems have become a sectional party for right-on elites and have lost the common touch. The way they got an abysmal 5 votes in Thursday night's by-election in Rhyl (Conservative gain from Labour, stick that in your liberal elite media narrative) is symptomatic of their utter irrelevance in most normal towns. If only the Loonies had stood... Of Cheltenham, Masham and Rhyl I supect the latter is the least normal. Also probably less so than Kettering, Biddulph, Plymouth, Cannock, Andover, Barnstaple and Hove - to name but a few. |
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 11, 2023 20:54:48 GMT
Edinburgh South West given how well they've done in South and West at the Holyrood and Westminster level
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 11, 2023 23:53:46 GMT
Edinburgh South West given how well they've done in South and West at the Holyrood and Westminster level Just because South West is geographically between South and West doesn't mean it's socially like them. There are probably parts of South West which could sustain a decent Lib Dem vote - Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart in particular - and they seem to massively underperform demographics there in local elections. But the very working class communities along the Gorgie and Calder Roads are big enough to set the tone of the constituency. There's also the fact the villages in the Pentland Hills are quite a way out the city proper and so have remained more conservative (and Conservative) than similarly affluent parts of South. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Feb 12, 2023 12:26:47 GMT
Can I add Ceredigion to that list? As you know here in Wales we have Senedd elections as a mid term pointer to the Westminster elections and up until really quite recently the Lib Dem vote in the Senedd was a guide to the General GE 1997: 6,616 SE 1999: 3,571 GE 2001: 9,297 SE 2003: 7,265 GE 2005: 13,130 SE 2007: 10,863 GE 2010: 19,139 SE 2011: 10,243 GE 2015: 13,414 SE 2016: 9,606 GE 2017: 11,519 No Senedd election in parliamentary term GE 2019: 6,975 SE 2021: 3,227 I'd argue that this is a historical overperformance that is now reverting to expectations. Much as happened in Montgomeryshire, but with less colourful candidates. |
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Post by olympian95 on Feb 12, 2023 17:58:13 GMT
Wandsworth, Putney, Fulham - educated, middle class London outside of a couple of boroughs. York, Lancaster, Exeter, Canterbury, Norwich, Durham - small university cities compared to Bath, Oxford, Cambridge or Cheltenham. With regard to London, these are excellent examples of LD underperformance. Especially Putney. |
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Post by olympian95 on Feb 12, 2023 18:07:37 GMT
Bucks has been glaringly bad for the LDs for years - until Chesham & amersham. A decent chance of holding on to that I think
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 12, 2023 18:11:42 GMT
Wandsworth, Putney, Fulham - educated, middle class London outside of a couple of boroughs. York, Lancaster, Exeter, Canterbury, Norwich, Durham - small university cities compared to Bath, Oxford, Cambridge or Cheltenham. With regard to London, these are excellent examples of LD underperformance. Especially Putney. It used to be even worse for them - in 1983, the Alliance share of the vote in Putney was one of the lowest in England. It has been remarked upon previously in the Almanac of British Politics, by Robert Waller, that the demographics of Putney and neighbouring Richmond Park are not all that different (although Richmond Park lacks a really large council estate such as Roehampton), and yet politically they have been poles apart for decades. The Lib Dems were quite close to catching Labour for a distant second place in 2010 but of course they collapsed again in 2015, as with almost everywhere else |
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 12, 2023 18:12:37 GMT
Bucks has been glaringly bad for the LDs for years - until Chesham & amersham. A decent chance of holding on to that I think in parliamentary elections, absolutely - but they used to control Aylesbury Vale council for quite a long period. |
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 12, 2023 19:00:31 GMT
Bucks has been glaringly bad for the LDs for years - until Chesham & amersham. A decent chance of holding on to that I think I wonder how well they'd have done in Beaconsfield in 2019 had Grieve not run as an independent. I also nominate South West Hertfordshire. |
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