|
Post by where2travel on Feb 12, 2023 23:05:22 GMT
Does anyone have a view on why the Labour vote is so much lower in Orpington than Beckenham? They seem to have a similar profile in my view. I live in Beckenham (the town and the constituency - I say that because a chunk of Beckenham itself actually isn't in the constituency for now). Both constituencies are similar in many ways, but Orpington is far more "outer-London" (Downe, Crofton, Biggin Hill, Farnborough), with the demographics that brings. Most of the Beckenham constituency looks towards London, whilst Orpington looks towards Kent (the workers in the City on the fast trains to and from Orpington still think they live in Kent). Overall Orpington has an older population, is highly owner-occupied (especially for London), has fewer in managerial/professional occupations and is less degree-level educated. I find it interesting comparing constituencies in different cities. Having spent half my life in south Manchester and half in south London, my gut feel is that Beckenham is a bit like Altrincham and Sale West and Orpington is Hazel Grove.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 12, 2023 23:13:58 GMT
Beckenham South used to be a very safe seat with a very good Conservative MP called Richard Bellamy. Later awarded a Viscountcy.
|
|
greenhert
Green
Posts: 7,231
Member is Online
|
Post by greenhert on Feb 12, 2023 23:28:43 GMT
Coventry North West is the sort of seat that 'should' have gone Tory at some point - 1976, 1979, 1983, 2019 in particular - but never has. Geoffrey Robinson probably a factor in keeping it on the Labour side. 2019 aside, though, it is seat known for regularly having below average swings.
|
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,386
|
Post by bsjmcr on Feb 21, 2023 20:14:52 GMT
Halifax? Tories lost out by a <1000 majority in 2010 yet didn’t manage to win or even come nearly as close as that in 2019, pretty poor for a Brexit area. They first lost it in ‘87, but there’s no university there, so no student/academic staff surge (a la M’cr Withington, Cambridge, etc, which they also lost around then). Numerically it seems to have behaved more like B’ham Edgbaston in that the Tories have suffered from repeated near-misses at each election, even with a new candidate, but again unlike Edgbaston it isn’t a remain or academic area. There are comfortable areas like Skircoat, and semi-rural areas like Sowerby Bridge too. I understand there’s a considerable minority population in the town centre, but it’s not as sizeable as that of say Bradford or Burnley, and the Conservative candidate in 2019 who was also a minority candidate, actually managed to lose vote share, which is interesting in itself.
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Feb 22, 2023 6:23:45 GMT
Halifax? Tories lost out by a <1000 majority in 2010 yet didn’t manage to win or even come nearly as close as that in 2019, pretty poor for a Brexit area. They first lost it in ‘87, but there’s no university there, so no student/academic staff surge (a la M’cr Withington, Cambridge, etc, which they also lost around then). Numerically it seems to have behaved more like B’ham Edgbaston in that the Tories have suffered from repeated near-misses at each election, even with a new candidate, but again unlike Edgbaston it isn’t a remain or academic area. There are comfortable areas like Skircoat, and semi-rural areas like Sowerby Bridge too. I understand there’s a considerable minority population in the town centre, but it’s not as sizeable as that of say Bradford or Burnley, and the Conservative candidate in 2019 who was also a minority candidate, actually managed to lose vote share, which is interesting in itself. Agree. The Tories had a now disgraced ethnic minority candidate in Wakefield and managed to take that seat in 2019. I think Holly Lynch may be a more hard-working MP than Mary Creagh was. Creagh was less entrenched in West Yorkshire (ex-Islington Cllr.). Lynch is from Halifax.
|
|
|
Post by heslingtonian on Feb 22, 2023 8:26:29 GMT
Bedford struck me as a seat the Conservatives should probably have not lost in 2019. Probably similar demographics to the two Milton Keynes seats which were held.
I think they also underperformed in Reading East in 2019 due to the selection of a non-local candidate who according to my sources had some rather hard Right views which was probably not a great fit for that seat.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Feb 22, 2023 8:26:42 GMT
In fact since WWII the Tories have only won Halifax 3 times, in 1955, 1959 & 1983. I'd say that is underperformance for a seat that cannot generally be regarded as safe Labour except in the party's very strongest years.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Feb 22, 2023 8:27:50 GMT
Bedford struck me as a seat the Conservatives should probably have not lost in 2019. Probably similar demographics to the two Milton Keynes seats which were held. I think they also underperformed in Reading East in 2019 due to the selection of a non-local candidate who according to my sources had some rather hard Right views which was probably not a great fit for that seat. Bedford is surely a good deal more multiethnic than Milton Keynes, with at least one ward being majority BAME and mostly Muslim.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Feb 22, 2023 9:23:57 GMT
In fact since WWII the Tories have only won Halifax 3 times, in 1955, 1959 & 1983. I'd say that is underperformance for a seat that cannot generally be regarded as safe Labour except in the party's very strongest years. Maybe we should have another thread "Seats that should have been won more often or at all by one of the other parties but never actually was".
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 22, 2023 9:36:32 GMT
In fact since WWII the Tories have only won Halifax 3 times, in 1955, 1959 & 1983. I'd say that is underperformance for a seat that cannot generally be regarded as safe Labour except in the party's very strongest years. Maybe we should have another thread "Seats that should have been won more often or at all by one of the other parties but never actually was". I present Stalybridge & Hyde since 1945
|
|
|
Post by batman on Feb 22, 2023 9:45:14 GMT
that's an excellent call Pete. It's amazing that Labour has held that seat unbrokenly for so long. It's also mildly surprising that it's continued to exist for so long while nearby seats have been abolished, renamed or drastically redrawn. The last Conservative MP for the constituency was Philip Dunne, 1937-1945 - grandfather of the present MP for Ludlow. Both are direct descendants of the great poet John Donne, not quite clear when the spelling changed.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Feb 22, 2023 9:48:54 GMT
Maybe we should have another thread "Seats that should have been won more often or at all by one of the other parties but never actually was". I present Stalybridge & Hyde since 1945 Idris Owen who only lost by 155 votes in 1955, was later MP for Stockport North (1970-4)
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Feb 22, 2023 10:04:23 GMT
Bedford struck me as a seat the Conservatives should probably have not lost in 2019. Probably similar demographics to the two Milton Keynes seats which were held. I think they also underperformed in Reading East in 2019 due to the selection of a non-local candidate who according to my sources had some rather hard Right views which was probably not a great fit for that seat. Bedford is surely a good deal more multiethnic than Milton Keynes, with at least one ward being majority BAME and mostly Muslim. Boundaries perhaps play a role - both Bedford and Milton Keynes boroughs have very similar overall demographics in terms of diversity (both are 7.1% Muslim, with MK having a slightly higher BAME population of 28% vs 24%. But the Bedford seat is tightly drawn around the core of the town, whereas the Milton Keynes seats are much more mixed. Another difference is the way different ethnic groups are distributed in the two towns. In Bedford, the bulk of the BAME population are found in older semi-detached housing around the town centre, with renting being common, whereas in Milton Keynes many of the most diverse areas are actually the new estates (much of the new housing around Broughton and Westcroft is majority minority with some OAs being less than 30% White British) and these are mainly owner occupied. There are also big differences with these diverse areas in Milton Keynes having high qualification levels and most residents working in good jobs - I would imagine minority voters in MK are less inclined towards Labour than minority voters in Bedford.
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Feb 22, 2023 12:08:11 GMT
Maybe we should have another thread "Seats that should have been won more often or at all by one of the other parties but never actually was". I present Stalybridge & Hyde since 1945 I notice Brian Silvester was the candidate in 1983. I presume "the" Brian Silvester.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Feb 22, 2023 17:33:58 GMT
well it's his region isn't it, sort of
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2023 23:39:20 GMT
In fact since WWII the Tories have only won Halifax 3 times, in 1955, 1959 & 1983. I'd say that is underperformance for a seat that cannot generally be regarded as safe Labour except in the party's very strongest years. Maybe we should have another thread "Seats that should have been won more often or at all by one of the other parties but never actually was". I think we should have a thread titled “Seats a party has held for less than 10 per cent of its existence, when really we’d expect it to have held in no less than 40 per cent of the time.”
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Feb 23, 2023 12:17:48 GMT
Eltham
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Feb 23, 2023 15:01:53 GMT
Alyn and Deeside / East Flintshire
Not really urban, not deprived (8th decile). Leave voting.
Tories have come close many times since 1950. - 10 times won by Labour by 10% or less, 3 times by 5% or less since (closest 0.2%).
Is there somewhere with as many % tory votes as this since in this period that have never been successful in electing a Conservative MP.
|
|
|
Post by Clark on Feb 23, 2023 16:09:05 GMT
I still think, given it's social and economic make up, that Bearsden in East Dumbartonshire is pound for pound their most under performing area. Obviously it's just a town within a larger constituency but even at local level, they've under performed there for years. Milngavie falls into this category too
|
|
|
Post by therealriga on Feb 24, 2023 14:17:51 GMT
I'm not convinced. Conservative support was falling relatively in all the big cities from the 1960s onwards (actually Liverpool started to trend away from the Conservatives in 1959) and this gathered pace in the 1980s. In most the fall in Conservative support was not as precipitous (the only comparable city is Glasgow) but nevertheless they were wiped out in various previously safe seats in Birmingham, Leeds, Sheffield etc in 1997 and have never really recovered in any of them either. I think the kind of people who engage in infantile politically inspired boycotts of that kind are not the sort of people who would ever have been likely Conservative voters anyway. Good luck going into a newsagent in Liverpool and telling them that it's an "infantile politically-inspired" boycott. If that's your actual view about 96 unlawful deaths, please try it in real life. 97 unlawful deaths. The last died in 2021. www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jul/28/liverpool-fans-death-ruled-as-97th-victim-of-hillsborough-disaster
|
|