Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,304
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 31, 2022 16:25:54 GMT
ROTHERHAM MBC; Keppel (Rotherham Democratic Party resigned)
Candidates:
CURRIE, Sid (Independent)
FOSTER,Carole Ann (Labour)
GHANEM, Khoulod (Liberal Democrat)
KEY, Peter Robert (Yorkshire Party)
MARTIN, Paul Neville (Green)
SULEMAN, Mohammed Osman (Conservative)
2021: Lab 1204, 1117, 754; RDP 993,681, 642; Con 917; Yorkshire 448; LD 264
Peter Key stood here for the Yorkshire party in 2021 and had previously contested the ward on old boundaries. All the other candidates except the Lib Dem contested other wards in the last election.
Current Council: Lab 33; Con 17; LD 4; RDP 2; Ind 2; 1 vacancy
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 360
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Post by mrtoad on Jan 2, 2023 9:27:36 GMT
Would need to know more about the local circumstances and candidates, but just from the 2021 figures a Conservative gain looks possible - there's a bit over 1,000 Con-RDP voters split between four candidates, I doubt the Labour council is overwhelmingly popular, Greens standing in by-election but not the 2021 election... National swing should help Labour make the gain but it looks like it could be an interesting one.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 2, 2023 10:42:51 GMT
Though this is a council where the Tories did very well in 2021, and the sort of place they might have fallen back by more than average since.
As you say it will be an interesting one.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,293
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Post by YL on Jan 2, 2023 20:48:41 GMT
One of the curiosities of ward names is how the name of an 18th century admiral came to be attached to a ward in landlocked Rotherham. The explanation is that Admiral Augustus Keppel was an ally of Charles Watson Wentworth, 2nd Marquess of Rockingham, who was twice Prime Minister for fairly short periods and whose seat was at Wentworth Woodhouse, in the neighbouring Hoober ward. When Keppel was court martialled in 1778 and acquitted, Rockingham had a monument built in the south of his estate to celebrate the acquittal. This is known as Keppel's Column and it is a well known local landmark in South Yorkshire; it was in a bad state for many years but has recently been refurbished. Since 2004 the ward which contains the column has been simply called "Keppel"; there were some ward boundary changes in 2021 which tidied up the boundaries a little, but the name was retained. The ward is a "rurban" ward which contains a slice of urban Rotherham combined with a more rural area north-west of the town including some smaller settlements, the largest of which is the village of Thorpe Hesley. The urban part of the ward is Kimberworth Park; this is a deprived working class area north-west of the town centre. This is not one of the more ethnically mixed parts of Rotherham, and is 93% white in the recent census figures. As with some other deprived areas on the edge of towns, it also shows high levels of "No Religion". Kimberworth Park is also not a well educated area, with levels of those without qualifications around 40% in the 2011 census in some census areas and those with degrees mostly below 10%. As well as Thorpe Hesley, the less urban part of the ward includes the small village of Scholes and some more modern development close to Keppel's Column itself. This area is rather less deprived than Kimberworth Park and indeed is one of the more middle class parts of Rotherham borough. It is also better educated, though not strikingly so, with three out of the four Lower Super Output Areas here having percentages with degrees in the high 20s and fairly low levels with no qualifications. Keppel ward voted Labour consistently from 2004 until 2012. However, Rotherham council then ran into problems, partly associated with the grooming gang case in the town. The 2014 Rotherham borough elections saw a UKIP surge, with them winning 10 seats, one of which was the seat up that year in Keppel ward. The ward voted UKIP again in 2015, and when Rotherham council's problems saw the whole council effectively sacked with an all up election in 2016, Keppel split two for UKIP and one for Labour. With a move to all up elections and a global pandemic, Rotherham's next council election wouldn't be for another five years, and a lot had changed. Most of Rotherham's UKIP councillors had joined the Brexit Party, but then they formed a new party, the Rotherham Democratic Party, to contest the 2021 election. In that election the RDP generally did not do very well, with the Conservatives surging past to become the main opposition. However, in Keppel ward the Tories undernominated and the RDP managed to win one of the three seats, with the other two going to Labour. The RDP did very poorly in two by-elections in December 2021, getting just 6 votes in Anston & Woodsetts and not doing much better in Aughton & Swallownest, and has now de-registered, though its two remaining councillors still use that label, with the resignation of the third causing this by-election. That Anston & Woodsetts by-election was won by the Liberal Democrats (a gain from the Tories) and they also won a by-election in Brinsworth & Catcliffe in 2017 with a huge majority, so they do have some recent history of by-election success in Rotherham. The demographics of this ward are generally of a sort which have been trending towards the Conservatives in recent years, but current polling would seem to make this an unlikely Tory win. The Independent candidate is not from the RDP genepool, but is (or at least has the same name as) a former Labour councillor from the other side of Rotherham, and contested the neighbouring Rotherham West ward, also as an Independent, in 2021. So Labour would seem the most likely to take the seat, but it's not a certainty. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,293
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Post by YL on Jan 20, 2023 8:57:14 GMT
It's a two horse race, apparently...
(The Tweeter is an Independent councillor for Dalton & Thrybergh.)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 20, 2023 9:10:34 GMT
It's a two horse race, apparently... Not far away:  |
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 20, 2023 21:54:29 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Jan 23, 2023 10:28:41 GMT
Rotherham counts on Thursday evening
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batman
Labour
Posts: 8,791 
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Jan 23, 2023 18:36:07 GMT
are you saying Andrew that it is somewhat fetlock-straining that Labour is that worried? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,176
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 26, 2023 15:06:02 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 26, 2023 23:47:03 GMT
Labour gain reported by local MP
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 27, 2023 0:01:15 GMT
ROTHERHAM Keppel
Foster, Carole Ann (Labour Party) 745
Ghanem, Khoulod (Liberal Democrats) 445
Currie, Simon [commonly known as Sid Currie] (Independent) 381
Key, Peter Robert (Yorkshire Party) 314
Suleman, Mohammed Osman (Conservative Party Candidate) 119
Martin, Paul Neville (The Green Party Candidate) 59
E. 10,364
4 BPs rejected
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 27, 2023 0:05:15 GMT
It's certainly a very competitive ward judging by that result
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,985
Member is Online
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Post by maxque on Jan 27, 2023 0:06:47 GMT
ROTHERHAM Keppel Foster, Carole Ann (Labour Party) 745 Ghanem, Khoulod (Liberal Democrats) 445 Currie, Simon [commonly known as Sid Currie] (Independent) 381 Key, Peter Robert (Yorkshire Party) 314 Suleman, Mohammed Osman (Conservative Party Candidate) 119 Martin, Paul Neville (The Green Party Candidate) 59 E. 10,364 4 BPs rejected Lab 36.1% (+4.6) LD 21.6% (+14.7) Ind 18.5% YP 15.2% (+3.5) Con 5.8% (-18.2) Grn 2.9% |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,293
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Post by YL on Jan 27, 2023 0:08:51 GMT
Not exactly a two horse race then.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 27, 2023 0:35:11 GMT
Not exactly a two horse race then. One horse and three donkeys? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 27, 2023 0:50:42 GMT
Not exactly a two horse race then. One horse and three donkeys? Presumably you think the LibDems, Indy and Yorkie are the donkeys, so what sort of animal were theTories and the Greens? |
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Post by johnloony on Jan 27, 2023 3:14:05 GMT
One horse and three donkeys? Presumably you think the LibDems, Indy and Yorkie are the donkeys, so what sort of animal were theTories and the Greens? Armadillo and hippopotamus |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 27, 2023 6:27:59 GMT
One horse and three donkeys? Presumably you think the LibDems, Indy and Yorkie are the donkeys, so what sort of animal were theTories and the Greens? Torytoises maybe? |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 27, 2023 6:36:01 GMT
One horse and three donkeys? Presumably you think the LibDems, Indy and Yorkie are the donkeys, so what sort of animal were theTories and the Greens? Tories are the oss in the knackers van, Greens are the whammel barking at the van. |
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