Local Council by-elections 30th November/1st December 2022

[batman]

Again a very narrow Labour gain in a Labour-controlled council, rather like Blackpool recently. Mostly the district-wide incumbent party has been tending to do worst in recent by-elections. Sutton ward in Bassetlaw being a very major exception

[Terry Weldon]

Local newspaper Farnham Herald (publishing locally as Haslemere Herald) has some context for the Chiddingfold result:

[andrewp]

Southampton Bitterne

Lab 807
Con 793
Green 66
LD 61
TUSC 26

[mattbewilson]

Dec 2, 2022 0:06:10 GMT batman said:

Again a very narrow Labour gain in a Labour-controlled council, rather like Blackpool recently. Mostly the district-wide incumbent party has been tending to do worst in recent by-elections. Sutton ward in Bassetlaw being a very major exception

developing responsibility but no money

[andrewp]

Dec 2, 2022 0:06:10 GMT batman said:

Again a very narrow Labour gain in a Labour-controlled council, rather like Blackpool recently. Mostly the district-wide incumbent party has been tending to do worst in recent by-elections. Sutton ward in Bassetlaw being a very major exception

It’s Defitnely a factor. The swing in Southampton was only about 3%.

[jamie]

Bitterne is a Brexity ward that voted Conservative by 10% in 2018 and 6% earlier this year. I think Labour should be pretty happy with a win.

[The Bishop]

Dec 2, 2022 1:07:34 GMT jamie said:

Bitterne is a Brexity ward that voted Conservative by 10% in 2018 and 6% earlier this year. I think Labour should be pretty happy with a win.

And the swing to Labour since 2021 is a fairly hefty one. Their results in Southampton earlier this year were generally pretty impressive too.

[evergreenadam]

Does Norfolk count today, Friday?

[Tony Otim]

Dec 1, 2022 23:54:55 GMT andrewp said:

Arundel and Walberton

Green 873
Con 529
Lab 407

A relatively good Labour vote as the most local candidate

Most local in terms only of living in the largest settlement - all 3 candidates actually live in the ward, although only by around a hundred metres in the case of the Conservative. This ward covers a lot of ground.

[batman]

Dec 2, 2022 0:37:43 GMT andrewp said:

Dec 2, 2022 0:06:10 GMT batman said:

Again a very narrow Labour gain in a Labour-controlled council, rather like Blackpool recently. Mostly the district-wide incumbent party has been tending to do worst in recent by-elections. Sutton ward in Bassetlaw being a very major exception

It’s Defitnely a factor. The swing in Southampton was only about 3%.

although that's only since May this year, by which time Labour was already ahead in the polls. There has of course been quite a significant swing since then, but still only single digit, roughly twice as much as the swing in this ward.

[batman]

Dec 2, 2022 1:07:34 GMT jamie said:

Bitterne is a Brexity ward that voted Conservative by 10% in 2018 and 6% earlier this year. I think Labour should be pretty happy with a win.

yes that's true, but it's the sort of ward that Labour would fully expect to win in the current climate and would hope it to be less narrow than that.

[batman]

Dec 2, 2022 8:41:53 GMT evergreenadam said:

Does Norfolk count today, Friday?

yes, as does West Lothian (see Phil's previous comment)

[batman]

Dec 2, 2022 8:48:02 GMT Tony Otim said:

Dec 1, 2022 23:54:55 GMT andrewp said:

Arundel and Walberton

Green 873
Con 529
Lab 407

A relatively good Labour vote as the most local candidate

Most local in terms only of living in the largest settlement - all 3 candidates actually live in the ward, although only by around a hundred metres in the case of the Conservative. This ward covers a lot of ground.

in which case that's a pretty impressive result for Labour, as well as of course the Greens. Arundel & its immediate environs are hardly normally fertile territory for the party.

[matureleft]

Dec 2, 2022 10:02:04 GMT batman said:

Dec 2, 2022 8:48:02 GMT Tony Otim said:

Most local in terms only of living in the largest settlement - all 3 candidates actually live in the ward, although only by around a hundred metres in the case of the Conservative. This ward covers a lot of ground.

in which case that's a pretty impressive result for Labour, as well as of course the Greens. Arundel & its immediate environs are hardly normally fertile territory for the party.

True, but it’s also the kind of area where Tories would be rather pained with the more recent incarnation of their party. Fairly arty sort of place. 

[andrewp]

Dec 2, 2022 9:59:07 GMT batman said:

Dec 2, 2022 0:37:43 GMT andrewp said:

It’s Defitnely a factor. The swing in Southampton was only about 3%.

although that's only since May this year, by which time Labour was already ahead in the polls. There has of course been quite a significant swing since then, but still only single digit, roughly twice as much as the swing in this ward.

Yes. Labour we’re about 6% ahead in the polls in May this year, so you’d maybe expect a swing of about 7-8% since then

[Chris from Brum]

Anyone heard anything from Norfolk or West Lothian?

[timmullen1]

Dec 2, 2022 11:03:36 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Anyone heard anything from Norfolk or West Lothian?

West Lothian council Tweeted 36 minutes ago that turnout was 27.2% and they will bring us the result as soon as it is announced.

[Chris from Brum]

Dec 1, 2022 23:50:52 GMT andrewp said:

Just noticing from Twitter that the LDs have possibly been running a very active campaign in Gaywood…..

However we start from a long way back there.

[BucksDucks]

Lib Dem gain Gaywood North & Central.

[Chris from Brum]

Dec 2, 2022 11:06:24 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Dec 1, 2022 23:50:52 GMT andrewp said:

Just noticing from Twitter that the LDs have possibly been running a very active campaign in Gaywood…..

However we start from a long way back there.

Obviously not far back enough ...