Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2016 21:32:28 GMT
Carter got the entire South (apart from Virginia) in 1976 as the "native son". That's a brilliant map for illustrating the change in US politics wrought by and since Reagan, with Carter sweeping the South and Ford winning not only in California but also the rust belt and even in big chunks of New England. I understood the Republican capture of the South, but hadn't registered that the Democrats had slightly compensated by camping on New England. Also I genuinely had no idea that Reagan had stood as a 3rd candidate then, though knew he had been on the scene since Nixon. Is the one vote he won in DC? (Actually, don't bother, I'll google it). I had it in my head that the Democrats lost the South to Nixon's "Silent Majority" strategy; I now see for the first time the real appeal of Carter to the Democrats if he gave them a chance of reversing that. Reagan did not run in the general election, but had challenged Ford in the primary and received the vote of one faithless elector from Washington State (as indicated on the map). It was: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliot_Richardson
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2016 22:44:55 GMT
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 6, 2016 1:07:06 GMT
Trump has now endorsed McCain, Ayotte and Ryan.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 6, 2016 1:12:22 GMT
Trump has now endorsed McCain, Ayotte and Ryan. And thus ends one of the dumbest weeks in the history of presidential politics with a glimmer of sanity. Presumably the prospect of getting minimal support from the RNC forced his hand. For what it is worth a poll out today has Ryan crushing his primary challenger 80-14.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 7, 2016 15:07:21 GMT
State polls from CBS
Arizona: Trump 42-40 Clinton Nevada: Clinton 43-41 Trump Virginia: Clinton 49-37 Trump
Arizona and Nevada look reasonable numbers for Trump (given the current national polling) but Virginia looks increasingly like it will be fairly safe for Clinton.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 15:17:02 GMT
State polls from CBS Arizona: Trump 42-40 Clinton Nevada: Clinton 43-41 Trump Virginia: Clinton 49-37 Trump Arizona and Nevada look reasonable numbers for Trump (given the current national polling) but Virginia looks increasingly like it will be fairly safe for Clinton. Yes, too well-educated for Trump (among other things).
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 7, 2016 19:23:29 GMT
State polls from CBS Arizona: Trump 42-40 Clinton Nevada: Clinton 43-41 Trump Virginia: Clinton 49-37 Trump Arizona and Nevada look reasonable numbers for Trump (given the current national polling) but Virginia looks increasingly like it will be fairly safe for Clinton. Still lousy numbers for Arizona when you consider it has voted Republican at every election since 1952 and Obama lost it by about 9 points in each of the last two (while on course for convincing victories nationally on both occasions.) For Arizona to be close is pretty shocking.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 7, 2016 19:38:42 GMT
State polls from CBS Arizona: Trump 42-40 Clinton Nevada: Clinton 43-41 Trump Virginia: Clinton 49-37 Trump Arizona and Nevada look reasonable numbers for Trump (given the current national polling) but Virginia looks increasingly like it will be fairly safe for Clinton. Still lousy numbers for Arizona when you consider it has voted Republican at every election since 1952 and Obama lost it by about 9 points in each of the last two (while on course for convincing victories nationally on both occasions.) For Arizona to be close is pretty shocking. It obviously isn't good news but with over 20% of the electorate being Hispanic it was always likely that Trump would under perform compared to a generic Republican. Democrats have been eyeing Arizona for a number of years due to changing demographics and with the Trump effect they think they have a genuine chance of winning both the Presidential and Senatorial contests.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 7, 2016 19:42:45 GMT
State polls from CBS Arizona: Trump 42-40 Clinton Nevada: Clinton 43-41 Trump Virginia: Clinton 49-37 Trump Arizona and Nevada look reasonable numbers for Trump (given the current national polling) but Virginia looks increasingly like it will be fairly safe for Clinton. Still lousy numbers for Arizona when you consider it has voted Republican at every election since 1952 and Obama lost it by about 9 points in each of the last two (while on course for convincing victories nationally on both occasions.) For Arizona to be close is pretty shocking. Not quite, it went for W J Clinton in 1996. (and it is fair to say it is trending to the Dems long term)
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Post by jollyroger93 on Aug 7, 2016 19:44:30 GMT
Still lousy numbers for Arizona when you consider it has voted Republican at every election since 1952 and Obama lost it by about 9 points in each of the last two (while on course for convincing victories nationally on both occasions.) For Arizona to be close is pretty shocking. Not quite, it went for Clinton in 1996. Clinton is pulling her ads from Colorado and Virginia her campaign are that confident they'll win both they're not bothering to pound them with ads.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 19:54:10 GMT
Not quite, it went for Clinton in 1996. Clinton is pulling her ads from Colorado and Virginia her campaign are that confident they'll win both they're not bothering to pound them with ads. No. 3 and 6 on the list of % with a college degree. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_educational_attainmentTrump is going to lose every state in the "Top 18 of Bachelor's Degree" with the exception of Kansas. The 19th is Utah, where he will underperform every Republican since 1964 badly and might lose. The 20th is Georgia, which I think the will lose as well. Most of these states are Dem leaning, but Trump will do much worse in "well-educated states" than a generic Republican.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2016 14:36:30 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2016 15:04:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2016 15:08:36 GMT
is there a sensible explanation for the poll's heavy Metro Atlanta sample?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2016 15:23:37 GMT
is there a sensible explanation for the poll's heavy Metro Atlanta sample? Yes, it covers a much larger area than the official metro area (there is a map of their regions on the last page).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 8, 2016 15:43:04 GMT
I hadn't noticed Trump was teetotal until I saw an article today about him hawking a product with his name on it that he wouldn't actually drink himself.
I would personally tend to avoid voting for a teetotaller!
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Post by BossMan on Aug 8, 2016 16:09:00 GMT
I have decided to move the recent posts arguing about the mental faculties of Clinton and Trump to the partisan arguments thread. Polling data, campaign event news and suchlike is far more relevant to the readers this thread.
Also, can we please avoid associating each other with words such as "brain damage" and "idiot". I have removed two posts after receiving a complaint about this. Let's keep our discussions civil, and if necessary consider the use of the Block member facility for any members whose posts you don't want to see. Thank you.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 8, 2016 16:40:42 GMT
I hadn't noticed Trump was teetotal until I saw an article today about him hawking a product with his name on it that he wouldn't actually drink himself. I would personally tend to avoid voting for a teetotaller! Yes, I am suspicious of those who don't drink. Like vegetarians.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2016 16:54:38 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2016 17:42:14 GMT
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