Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2016 10:14:11 GMT
When I pointed out earlier that Cruz's earlier response to the National Enquirer story was ambiguous and evasive everyone on here responded that I was being tin foil hattish about it and there was nothing wrong with his answer Now yesterday Cruz was asked directly about adultery. First Carly Fiorina (where's Heidi) jumps in and tries to deflect. Then Ted answers but avoids directly answering the question Does that not look like a very evasive answer? You were being tin foil hattish because you were talking about that specific answer and arguing that a denial was not a denial. It was. This answer is the same, but the question is different. He was asked here whether he had ever in their entire relationship cheated on his wife, not whether he had slept with pretty much any woman who crossed his path.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 29, 2016 10:36:44 GMT
I disagree, slightly - people *can* mind if hypocrisy is percieved to be involved. That's why "Back to Basics" was so damaging to the Tories back in the day. And became even more hollow sounding after the Currie story.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 29, 2016 11:36:28 GMT
I disagree, slightly - people *can* mind if hypocrisy is percieved to be involved. That's why "Back to Basics" was so damaging to the Tories back in the day. I agree that this could potentially damage Cruz but for that to happen it needs to spread beyond the National Enquirer and the Trumpbots on twitter. The fact that reputable news organisations refused to run the story due to insufficient evidence makes it easy for Cruz to claim that this is just a Trump orchestrated smear.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 29, 2016 12:18:02 GMT
People don't mind who sleeps with who, Oh yes they do.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Mar 29, 2016 12:58:58 GMT
This must be the dirtiest political campaign for many years. Trump has dragged the whole race into the gutter.
The Democrats had a few lows in the past with the treatment of Ed Muskie and Thomas Eagleton.
I shudder to think how bad the general election will be if Trump is nominated.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 29, 2016 13:31:40 GMT
This must be the dirtiest political campaign for many years. Trump has dragged the whole race into the gutter. The Democrats had a few lows in the past with the treatment of Ed Muskie and Thomas Eagleton. I shudder to think how bad the general election will be if Trump is nominated. Hmmmmmmmmmm! My experience of long watching American election campaigns is that they start in gutters and rapidly proceed downstream towards larger conduits! One could carpet rooms with glaring examples, but may I evidence the way certain city votes were purchased for Kennedy or Watergate and the outcome? Trump has been under the cosh of the establishment from the outset and is mainly getting in a bit of retaliation not by subvention, criminal activity or naked bribery, but by the simple expedient of spreading gossip, rumour but mainly unpalatable truth.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 29, 2016 14:17:12 GMT
This must be the dirtiest political campaign for many years. Trump has dragged the whole race into the gutter. The Democrats had a few lows in the past with the treatment of Ed Muskie and Thomas Eagleton. I shudder to think how bad the general election will be if Trump is nominated. Hmmmmmmmmmm! My experience of long watching American election campaigns is that they start in gutters and rapidly proceed downstream towards larger conduits! One could carpet rooms with glaring examples, but may I evidence the way certain city votes were purchased for Kennedy or Watergate and the outcome? Trump has been under the cosh of the establishment from the outset and is mainly getting in a bit of retaliation not by subvention, criminal activity or naked bribery, but by the simple expedient of spreading gossip, rumour but mainly unpalatable truth. Trump has not been derided for spreading 'gossip', 'rumour' or 'unpalatable truth'. He is disliked due to his habit of throwing around unpleasant insults, such as the fact that Latinos are 'rapists', or insulting people for their appearances. That doesn't come under what you describe,
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2016 14:21:16 GMT
Sabato has run through the math, and estimates Trump will (barely) make it over 1237.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Mar 29, 2016 15:16:00 GMT
Sabato has run through the math, and estimates Trump will (barely) make it over 1237. Looking at two states, this is very optimistic for Trump. 30 out of 42 for Wisconsin seems over the top given that Cruz has been ahead in polls recently and 538 are projecting a Cruz win with 69% confidence. Also 109 out of 172 in California seems high with only a 1% lead over Cruz. 538 are projecting a Cruz win with 54% confidence. The figures for Washington and Oregon seem rather high to me.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 29, 2016 15:21:35 GMT
Sabato's numbers show how narrow Trump's path to 1,237 is. He only has to slip up one state that he is expected to win, and Wisconsin looks very close, and he will have to make it up elsewhere. I also think his New York and California numbers are a bit generous for Trump.
Sabato has also missed off Colorado which will pledge 37 delegates at its district and state conventions as well as Wyoming which will pledge another 14 delegates at its state convention.
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Post by mrhell on Mar 29, 2016 15:25:26 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 29, 2016 15:26:34 GMT
Corey Lewandowski (Trump's campaign manager) has been charged with battery of Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 29, 2016 15:33:54 GMT
Corey Lewandowski (Trump's campaign manager) has been charged with battery of Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields. This will probably boost Trump's image even further with his Neanderthal supporters.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 29, 2016 15:38:45 GMT
Corey Lewandowski (Trump's campaign manager) has been charged with battery of Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields. Based off what we've read recently, I can only assume that a plea of "not guilty" will be regarded by the Trumpistas as not really a denial?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2016 15:44:47 GMT
The Jupiter Police Department had the smoking gun!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2016 16:21:57 GMT
www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_32916.pdfA lot of great questions in this poll. 44% of GOP supporters think Trump is a moderate and a majority of Republicans think Obama is muslim. Republicans are more comfortable with Trump as the nominee than anyone else, in or out of the race "When Donald Trump first rose last summer we found that most of his supporters were birthers who think President Obama is a Muslim and seven months later that dynamic has not changed. Only 26% of Trump voters think President Obama was born in the United States to 52% who think he was not, and just 9% think President Obama is a Christian to 62% who think he's a Muslim. The numbers aren't much better among Cruz supporters- just 32% of them think the President was born in the United States to 39% who think he was not and only 12% of them think he's a Christian to 56% that believe he's a Muslim. Only Kasich's supporters come out looking good on these questions- 58% think the President was born in the United States to 23% who think he was not, and 46% think he's a Christian to 31% who think he's a Muslim. But having the support of the reasonable segment of the GOP electorate isn't getting Kasich very far. We also asked if people think Muslims should be allowed to serve in the US Military and Kasich voters said yes by an overwhelming margin (75/15) while Cruz (41/37) and Trump (42/39) voters are closely divided."
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 29, 2016 17:15:08 GMT
Surely this incident can't be true, after past insistence that Breitbart is infallible ex cathedra.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Mar 29, 2016 18:04:17 GMT
Assuming that it does turn out to be Clinton versus Trump, there are two potential precedents. One is Johnson v Goldwater in 1964 and the other is Carter v Reagan in 1980. Both involved a establishment Democrat (sitting President in both cases) against an insurgent right-wing Republican. The results were remarkably different. Despite the superficial similarities between Reagan and Trump, it is not a good analogy. Paraphrasing Lloyd Bentsen, Trump is no Reagan. The latter was affable and generally well liked across the spectrum and did not seem to go out of his way to insult and vilify every minority group (not to mention a majority group (women). Red State has an excellent article on this issue: www.redstate.com/dan_mclaughlin/2016/03/15/1980-donald-trump-ronald-reagan/The Barry Goldwater campaign has more parallels but again Goldwater had more electoral experience. It would be hard to have less! You can see why the GOP establishment are so keen to avoid a Trump candidacy.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2016 18:42:20 GMT
Trump's RCP average the day Rubio dropped out was 32, now it's 42. He has surprisingly (to the pundits at least) absorbed most of Rubio's support. His path to 50%+ is Kasich supporters simply giving up and not voting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2016 19:45:35 GMT
There is a handy little tool in this article, which allows you to plug in the % of the vote and % turnout for four different demographic groups. It uniform swings, which makes it "wrong" in certain aspects, but it still gives you ab idea of how absolutely impossible a Trump victory is short of a Clinton indictment. www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/28/will_demographics_sink_donald_trump_130095.htmlThe 2012 numbers were: Non-Hispanic Whites: Romney 59, Obama 39 Blacks: Obama 93, Romney 6 Hispanics: Obama 71, Romney 27 Other races: Obama 65, Romney 33 Give Trump 2% extra among Blacks and reduce his margin to a realistic level among demographic group, say: Non-Hispanic Whites: Trump 53, Clinton 44 Black:s Clinton 91, Trump 8 Hispanics: Clinton 80, Trump 19 Other races: Clinton 70, Trump 29 The calculator only factors in the two-party vote, so thats a inaccuracy, but this translates to about a 56 - 43 Clinton victory in the PV, and an impressive 408-130 EV victory. Because of the uniform swing there are a few unrealistic elements a) Trump's "Mormon problem" is not taking into consideration b) Clinton might get a bit extra in Arkansas after all c) Georgia obviously swings before Texas and Texas is a place where Trump might get a non-marginal share of Hispanics (high share of Conservatives, rather wealthy on average, used to voting Republican, high share of "Old American"). Yet, with all its flaws it still illustrates how utterly impossible a Trump victory is.
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