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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 16:44:21 GMT
As I mentioned in my previous post in this thread, the Green Party got more votes than the LibDems here last May. Could this happen in a parliamentary by-election?
There was a swing to Labour here in 2001, when Mr. Pocock first stood as a candidate - but it was probably down to the loss of Sir Norman Fowler's incumbency. Sir Norman, of course, was known for pointing out how he would have been one of the few Tory MPs left (if not the only one left) had some of the by-election projections in the 1992-1997 Parliament translated into general election votes.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 17:05:12 GMT
There is no doubt in my mind that Andrew Mitchell has hardly created good will for him. in 2010 when he should have seen a massive increase in vote share, it was modest and especially compared to nearby Erdington it was very poor.
If the Tories here select the right candidate if Mitchell left would not be an issue and an easy hold. IF they pick a parachute or a duff one, they could be shocked by the loss in vote share (but not a defeat).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 5, 2013 17:09:18 GMT
Before we get too excited - even if AM is appointed to this position, could he delay his resignation as an MP for long enough to avoid a contest anyway??
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Post by innocentabroad on Mar 5, 2013 17:19:28 GMT
Bee, Oh, Are, Eye, Ess... spells...
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 17:19:43 GMT
Before we get too excited - even if AM is appointed to this position, could he delay his resignation as an MP for long enough to avoid a contest anyway?? IS there not a fixed time he has to start at the EU, he can not have both.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 5, 2013 17:30:04 GMT
The new Commission is due to begin its work on 1 November 2014, although that is subject to approval by the European Parliament which has sometimes been delayed if one of the nominees is controversial.
There don't seem to be any formal rules disqualifying someone from being a member of a national Parliament and a Commissioner, as there are now for Members of the European Parliament, but in practice no-one can do both jobs. A byelection should be called for a vacant seat within three months of the vacancy arising, although that period can be extended if it is a major holiday period.
In theory, if there is a slight hold-up in the swearing-in of the new Commission, and a vacancy is not declared until the new year, then I think the Conservatives could try holding it out until the dissolution. David Taylor died on Boxing Day in 2009 and no byelection was held there.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 5, 2013 17:35:00 GMT
Bee, Oh, Are, Eye, Ess... spells... One of the reasons Cameron might not want it, of course Though I suspect BoJo will have got selected as PPC for somewhere else by then, if he is serious??
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 17:54:57 GMT
Bee, Oh, Are, Eye, Ess... spells... One of the reasons Cameron might not want it, of course Though I suspect BoJo will have got selected as PPC for somewhere else by then, if he is serious?? *cough* Richmond Park *aitchoo*
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 5, 2013 18:16:01 GMT
As I mentioned in my previous post in this thread, the Green Party got more votes than the LibDems here last May. Could this happen in a parliamentary by-election? We would need to actually put up a bloody candidate first
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 5, 2013 20:19:22 GMT
Is Norman Fowlet still around to remind us that Sutton Coldfield would have been the only seat the Tories would have held based on the swings from a number of 1980s by-elections?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 20:44:28 GMT
yep defo around, puts his two pennies into the Leveson debate
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 6, 2013 12:53:55 GMT
"UKIP CAMPAIGNER LABELS CANDIDATES 'DISASTROUS'" - Exclusive to all blogs. Surely for such purposes I would be described as a "senior activist"
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2013 7:18:24 GMT
Complete bobbins but all the same it's rare for the Conservative bit to be so big in these
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 10:05:45 GMT
Given the UKIP performance, given Sutton coldfield would see a Labour and a UKIP squeeze (some parts should be good for UKIP at the moment) I note the talk of Mitchell stepping down next year has cooled...
the last thing Cameron can afford is to lose a seat like Sutton or even get close to losing it. I believe if there was a by election in the next month there and IF Rob Pocock was selected for Labour you could see one of the biggest by election shocks.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 21:12:51 GMT
This is funny for a reason Richard may understand
Faisal Islam @faisalislam Conservatives should be enlisting Karren Brady rapidly after that performance... Mitchell's constituency after he goes to Brussels?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 21:15:14 GMT
After what performance?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 21:16:44 GMT
she has been on Piers Morgan programme, not that I have watched it
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 21:20:47 GMT
Without you mentioning that, an out of context quote with her name mis-spelled might have confused people.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 5, 2013 23:28:46 GMT
This is funny for a reason Richard may understand Faisal Islam @faisalislam Conservatives should be enlisting Karren Brady rapidly after that performance... Mitchell's constituency after he goes to Brussels? That would be absolutely hilarious and would certainly result in a Tory loss, the only question would be who to. Obviously that is no reflection on Brady who I hold in very high regard.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 10:51:15 GMT
of course you do ... I think if she was picked (would not be) then the Villa supporting Tories would go UKIP depending on the quality of the candidate and would have to be local I think to combat Pocock ...
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