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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 5, 2021 18:34:38 GMT
Perhaps it would be kindest to say that all of us coming back to prediction after the long layoff are pretty rusty with our predictive skills. Alternatively, none of us had a clue what was going on in darkest North Lanarkshire. Congrats to Right Leaning and European Lefty for jointly being the least bad. Was that actually a tie for gold or can we separate them at more decimal places? And a small clap for Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith in bronze. As bjornhattan has said, it's just been eked by RL. I've updated the rankings so that it now shows to two decimal places so should be clearer. Although it may have been a baptism of fire this week, there's plenty of time for everyone to get back in the swing of things!
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Mar 10, 2021 16:13:35 GMT
Hopefully this set of random predictions are as good as last weeks.
HIGHLAND UA; Aird and Loch Ness SNP 29% Conservative 27% Independent 19% Liberal Democrat 13% Green 7% Labour 5% CONSERVATIVE WIN AFTER TRANSFERS
SCOTTISH BORDERS UA; Leaderdale and Melrose Conservative 29% SNP 25% DOUGLAS, Mary (Independent) 15% Liberal Democrat 13% WILKS, Karen (Independent) 8% Labour 7% Green 3% SNP WIN AFTER TRANSFERS
WEST LOTHIAN UA; Livingston South Labour 35% SNP 33% Conservative 25% Green 3% Independent 2.4% Liberal Democrat 1.5% UKIP 0.1% LABOUR WIN AFTER TRANSFERS
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Mar 10, 2021 17:19:44 GMT
Highland UA, Aird and Loch Ness: Conservative 19.5, Labour 2, Liberal Democrat 15, Green 14, SNP 21, Independent 28.5. Independent win on transfers.
Scottish Borders UA, Leaderdale and Melrose: Conservative 23, Labour 3, Liberal Democrat 27.5, Green 2, SNP 27.5, Independent Douglas 9, Independent Wilks 8, Liberal Democrat win on transfers.
West Lothian UA, Livingston South: Conservative 18, Labour 31.5, Liberal Democrat 3, Green 4, SNP 40.5, UKIP 0.5, Independent 2.5. SNP win on transfers.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,354
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 10, 2021 17:36:15 GMT
Highland: SNP 28.0; Con 24.0; Fraser 21.9; LD 14.1; Grn 7.0; Lab 6.0 (Independent Fraser win) Borders: Con 43.5; SNP 24.5; LD 10.2; Wilks 7.0; Douglas 6.1; Lab 4.9; Grn 3.8 (Con win) West Lothian: SNP 39.3; Lab 36.1; Con 17.9; Grn 3.3; LD 1.8; Millar 1.3; UKIP 0.2 (Lab win)
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,621
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 10, 2021 19:55:55 GMT
Aird & Loch Ness (Highland): Con 28 Ind 26 SNP 26 LD 15 Grn 3 Lab 2 Ind GAIN from Con Leaderdale & Melrose (Borders): Con 45 SNP 25 LD 15 Ind (D) 5 Ind (W) 5 Lab 4 Grn 1 Con GAIN from SNP Livingston South (W Lothian): Lab 43 SNP 37 Con 15 LD 2 Grn 2 UKIP 1 Lab GAIN from SNP
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 10, 2021 20:07:34 GMT
Highland: SNP 25.1; Con 23; Fraser 24.9; LD 15; Grn 7; Lab 5 (Independent Fraser win)
Borders: Con 38; SNP 20; LD 15; Wilks 5; Douglas 14; Lab 5; Grn 3 (Con win)
West Lothian: SNP 40; Lab 35; Con 20; Grn 2; LD 2; Millar 1; UKIP 0 (Lab win)
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Post by greenhert on Mar 10, 2021 22:29:17 GMT
Highland UA, Aird & Loch Ness: Independent (Fraser) 27, SNP 25, Conservative 24, Liberal Democrats 13, Green 6, Labour 5. (Independent Fraser gain from Conservative on transfers) Borders UA, Leaderdale & Melrose: Conservative 37, SNP 22, Independent (Douglas) 15, Liberal Democrats 12, Independent (Wilks) 6, Labour 4, Green 4 (Conservative gain from SNP on transfers). West Lothian UA, Livingston South: SNP 42, Labour 31, Conservative 18, Green 3.5, Liberal Democrats 3, Independent (Millar) 2, UKIP 0.5. (SNP hold)
Vote shares predicted are for first preferences only.
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 11, 2021 1:11:15 GMT
Highland, Aird and Loch Ness: SNP 26, Con 25, Ind (Fraser) 25, LD 16, Lab 5, Grn 3. Fraser to win after transfers.
Scottish Borders, Leaderdale and Melrose: Con 35, SNP 28, LD 14, Lab 7, Douglas 7, Wilks 6, Grn 3. Conservatives to win after transfers.
West Lothian, Livingston South: Lab 32, SNP 31, Con 19, LD 15, Grn 2, UKIP 1. Labour to win after transfers.
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Post by rightleaning on Mar 11, 2021 6:15:07 GMT
Highland, Aird and Loch Ness: SNP 18, Con 29, Ind (Fraser) 30, LD 10, Lab 5, Gn 8. Ind win after transfers
Scottish Borders, Leaderdale and Melrose: Con 37, SNP 28, LD 15, Lab 4, Douglas 7, Wilks 4, Gn 5. Con win after transfers
West Lothian, Livingston South: Lab 36, SNP 33, Con 23, LD 2, Gn 4, UKIP 1, Ind 1 Labour win after transfers
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 11, 2021 7:23:12 GMT
Highland Aird and Loch Ness: Ind win after transfers
Ind (Fraser) 30 SNP 27 Con 25 LDm 12 Grn 6
Scottish Borders, Leaderdale and Melrose: Con win after transfers
Con 35 SNP 27 LDm 13 Ind Douglas 10 Lab 7 Ind Wilkes 4.5 Grn 3.5
West Lothian, Livingston South: Lab win after transfers
SNP 38 Lab 36 Con 20 Grn 3 LDm 1.5 Ind 1 UKIP 0.5
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 11, 2021 8:27:44 GMT
Whoops ,it's Thursday. Had worked out my answers a couple of days ago, then nearly forgot to post them. I seem to have lost a whole day somehow! Highland , Aird and Loch Ness: Ind 29,SNP 28, Con 26, LD 12, SGP 5.Ind win after transfers(Fraser) Scottish Borders, Leaderdale and Melrose: Con 35, SNP 24, LD 15, Ind Douglas 9, Ind Wilkes 6, Lab 6, SGP 5. Con win after transfers. West Lothian, Livingston South: SNP 40, Lab 34, Con 22, Ind 2, LD 1, UKIP 1 Lab win on transfers (just!).
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 11, 2021 9:21:34 GMT
Made it by the skin of my teeth, but didn't have any time to look at whatever anybody else had put down, which may or maybe not have been a good thing. I try not to be influenced by anybody else, but can't say I haven't ever tweaked my entry slightly if I appear to be seriously out of line with everybody, and I'm going late. I might have spotted that I had somehow missed the Lab candidate in Aird & Loch Ness, an error I see I shared with Iain which was totally coincidence.
edit- I see now I also seem to have managed to miss the Green off in Livingston South. Makes me realise how dependant I am on last minute checking for the minor places!
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 11, 2021 22:59:14 GMT
10 entries this week, all on time but Tony Otim receiving 1.1 additional faults for going 1 over in Highland and 0.1 under in Livingston. There were a few parties missed as noted so as I normally do I've taken those as a prediction of 0 with no further penalty. Aird and Loch Ness, Highland: 5 have Independent (Fraser) ahead on first preferences with alien8ted, bjornhattan, robertwaller and Tony Otim SNP ahead, and European Lefty Conservatives ahead. 9 then have Independent (Fraser) winning after transfers with alien8ted Conservative win. Leaderdale and Melrose, Scottish Borders: 9 have Conservatives ahead on first preferences with Toylyyev Lib Dem and SNP tie (favouring Lib Dems). 8 have the Conservatives winning after transfers with alien8ted SNP win and Toylyyev Lib Dem win. Livingston South, West Lothian: 6 have SNP ahead on first preferences with alien8ted, bjornhattan, European Lefty and Right Leaning Labour ahead. 8 have Labour winning after transfers with greenhert and Toylyyev SNP win. Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xk9g2FqzQl7hJwbhgzmXYGM4-4wYp0eaqKFnpH4hrZY/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Mar 12, 2021 0:24:14 GMT
If it may provide solace to other errs, my Borders prediction was just one large lapse. Starting with a miss of the second Conservative candidate in 2017, followed by picking up the candidacy in 2012 of Mary Douglas for the Borders Party in Hawick and Denholm, but forgetting about their earlier results in this ward, and these weren't even the worst ones. While at it, a fun anecdote related to the Bs in my 4th March thread post is that the penultimate intent was BB Squared, and i went 4 depolitizing it because that association was unintentional. So no leaf clover, i'd call such phenomena reduced stimuli environment epiphanies.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 12, 2021 16:17:14 GMT
Congratulations to Right Leaning for the lead for the month so far- still just ahead by 0.1 points- couldn't really be any closer. However, seeing who appears to be in that second place I can only assume it means none of us have a clue really.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Mar 12, 2021 18:37:40 GMT
Well that was a total crash and Robert Burns.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 13, 2021 12:10:44 GMT
Good to have won this week despite my silly mistakes with the Leaderdale & Melrose prediction.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Mar 17, 2021 7:52:29 GMT
As bad as last week's? Hopefully not.
ARGYLL AND BUTE UA; Helensburgh and Lomond South Conservative 43.3% SNP 26.9% Liberal Democrat 12.7% Green 8.7% Labour 8.3% Workers Party 0.1% Conservative win after transfers
ARGYLL AND BUTE UA; Isle of Bute SNP 33.3% GILLIES, Fraser (Independent) 29.9% Conservative 19.9% McCABE, Liz (Independent) 9.8% Labour 7.1% Independent GILLIES win after transfers
CONWY UA; Eirias Independent 43.8% Conservative 25.1% Liberal Democrat 11.3% Plaid Cymru 10.5% Labour 6.8% Green 2.5%
DENBIGHSHIRE UA; Corwen Plaid Cymru 51.5% Labour 28% Liberal Democrat 20.5%
GLASGOW UA; Baillieston SNP 40.4% Labour 29.9% Conservative 23.3% Green 3.3% Liberal Democrats 2.9% UKIP 0.2% SNP WIN ON TRANSFERS
GLASGOW UA; Partick East/Kelvindale Conservative 26.8% SNP 26.5% Labour 19.4% Green 18.8% Liberal Democrat 8.3% UKIP 0.2% SNP WIN ON TRANSFERS
WREXHAM UA; Maesydre Labour 44% Conservative 25% Liberal Democrat 18.1% Plaid Cymru 9% Independent 3.9%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,354
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 17, 2021 16:24:05 GMT
Helensburgh & Lomond South: Con 41.9; LD 22.8; SNP 20.4; Lab 8.0; Grn 6.3; WP 0.6 (Con win) Isle of Bute: SNP 36.7; Gillies 31.8; con 16.2; McCabe 10.4; Lab 4.9 (Gillies win) Eirias: Con 38.5; G. Jones 34.9; PC 8.9; Lab 7.5; LD 6.1; Grn 4.1 Corwen: PC 66.4; Lab 18.4; LD 15.2 Baillieston: SNP 46.9; Lab 28.1; Con 19.7; Grn 3.0; LD 1.8; UKIP 0.5 Partick East/Kelvindale: SNP 35.9; Con 21.4; Grn 17.9; Lab 17.6; LD 6.8; UKIP 0.4 Maesydre: Lab 31.0; Con 27.9; PC 19.0; LD 11.9; Ray 10.2
I also predict high faults across the board this week.
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 17, 2021 18:37:56 GMT
ARGYLL AND BUTE UA; Helensburgh and Lomond South: CON WIN ON TRANSFERS - Con 37 LDm 25 SNP 23 Lab 9 Grn 5 WP 1
ARGYLL AND BUTE UA; Isle of Bute : SNP WIN ON TRANSFERS - SNP 36 Ind (Gillies) 26 Con 21 Ind (McCabe) 11 Lab 6
CONWY UA; Eirias : IND WIN - Ind (Jones) 36 Con 28 LDm 13 Lab 11 PC 9 Grn 3
DENBIGHSHIRE UA; Corwen : LDM WIN - LDm 37, PC 34 Lab 29
GLASGOW UA; Baillieston : SNP WIN ON TRANSFERS - SNP 45 Lab 31 Con 16 Grn 5 LDm 2.7 UKIP 0.3
GLASGOW UA; Partick East/Kelvindale : SNP WIN ON TRANSFERS - SNP 34 Grn 18 Lab 17 Con 15 LDm 12 UKIP 1
WREXHAM UA; Maesydre: LAB WIN - Lab 35 Con 32 LDm 20 PC 9 Ind (Ray) 4
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