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Post by andrew111 on Oct 14, 2019 12:20:51 GMT
New Welsh Political Barometer poll due today....π Delayed until tomorrow. Oh, the suspense!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2019 7:13:04 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2019 7:18:21 GMT
Here are the findings for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our July Barometer poll once more in brackets):
Labour: 25% (+4)
Conservatives: 23% (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 22% (-2)
Brexit Party: 15% (-4)
Liberal Democrats: 11% (-1)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Others: 1% (-1)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2019 7:18:56 GMT
regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our July poll once again in brackets):
Labour: 23% (+4)
Conservatives: 22% (+4)
Plaid Cymru: 21% (-2)
Brexit Party: 14% (-3)
Liberal Democrats: 10% (-2)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Others: 5% (-2)
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Post by justin124 on Oct 15, 2019 9:29:58 GMT
These findings strike me as being somewhat unlikely.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 15, 2019 10:08:29 GMT
Is it usual for the Tories to do that much better in the Westminster figures?
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 15, 2019 10:14:46 GMT
Is it usual for the Tories to do that much better in the Westminster figures? It would seem to imply either a huge amount of churn or a surprisingly large group who would vote Con for Westminster and Plaid for Cardiff... which is maybe not impossible - anti-eu nationalists, they certainly exist in Scotland in reasonable numbers...
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Oct 15, 2019 11:47:01 GMT
I do find it hilarious that the Brexit Party do the same if not slightly better at the Assembly level than Westminster. Must be because of those very distinctive policies on devolved issues...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 15, 2019 13:00:58 GMT
I do find it hilarious that the Brexit Party do the same if not slightly better at the Assembly level than Westminster. Must be because of those very distinctive policies on devolved issues... Some people will vote for the Brexit Party at any level to send a message. What happens to them on 1st Nov if we leave is up for debate.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 15, 2019 13:01:33 GMT
Welsh polls do appear to be particularly bad. I recall at the 2017 election, even as the exit poll was revealing the full horror of what was about to occur with some accuracy, they were still predicting several Conservative gains in Wales.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2019 13:05:46 GMT
Welsh polls do appear to be particularly bad. I recall at the 2017 election, even as the exit poll was revealing the full horror of what was about to occur with some accuracy, they were still predicting several Conservative gains in Wales. the last yougov poll in wales before the GE had Lab 46 Con 34
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 15, 2019 13:17:53 GMT
That would be Labour down 24% compared with the 2017 GE and Tories only down 5%. Lib Dems are up 11, PC up 2, Greens up 4%. If all those votes came from Lab that still leaves 7% going to BXP as a minimum
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 15, 2019 19:59:49 GMT
I am not sure why but this poll does not feel quite right.
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Post by Penddu on Nov 4, 2019 14:35:13 GMT
New Welsh poll out at 5pm today. Another 'interesting' one...
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2019 16:04:18 GMT
Field work 31-4
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 4, 2019 16:47:18 GMT
New Welsh poll out at 5pm today. Another 'interesting' one... Whose poll is it?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 4, 2019 16:48:09 GMT
ITV/Cardiff Uni
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Nov 4, 2019 17:12:50 GMT
Lab 29 Cons 28 BXP 15 LD 12 PC 12 Greens 3 Others 1
Lab up 4, LD down 4, Tories and BXP swap a point.
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 4, 2019 17:12:53 GMT
Full changes I think are Lab +4 Con -1 BxP +1 LD -4 Green -1 Plaid no change
Labour's first lead in a Welsh poll since May. Still a long way to go to reach the 15 point lead of 2017 though. Brexit will be squeezed before the election, but a lot of their score must be friendly to Labour.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Nov 4, 2019 17:33:47 GMT
Labour have certainly got a Wales problem, haven't they. They could easily lose 8 seats here. Welsh Labour is almost scuppering all by itself any chance of defeating Boris.
"Devolution has made it difficult for Labour to get a majority in the House of Commons. Discuss."
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