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Post by jigger on Sept 11, 2017 20:28:05 GMT
I have a feeling on those numbers we may see a Labour gain in Ceredigion, really depends how much Labour tactical vote is left to unwind. Has Labour's vote share in Ceredigion really been suppressed by tactical voting? I know that Labour were a lot stronger in Ceredigion 40 years ago than they are now. But surely it is a bit of stretch to say that there has been tactical voting for more than 40 years when the vast majority of voters who voted in Ceredigion in the 1970s will either not be alive or will be voting elsewhere. More likely, IMO, is that there has been a genuine decline in Labour's support here over the last 40 years (a la Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire) and that the increase in support for both Labour and the Conservatives in Ceredigion this year simply reflects the fact that Labour and the Conservatives were a lot more popular in Wales at this election than they have been for a while.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 11, 2017 21:23:23 GMT
Has Labour's vote share in Ceredigion really been suppressed by tactical voting? I know that Labour were a lot stronger in Ceredigion 40 years ago than they are now. But surely it is a bit of stretch to say that there has been tactical voting for more than 40 years when the vast majority of voters who voted in Ceredigion in the 1970s will either not be alive or will be voting elsewhere. More likely, IMO, is that there has been a genuine decline in Labour's support here over the last 40 years (a la Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire) and that the increase in support for both Labour and the Conservatives in Ceredigion this year simply reflects the fact that Labour and the Conservatives were a lot more popular in Wales at this election than they have been for a while. I think there's got to be some. Ceredigion has been a very clear Plaid-Lib Dem marginal for decades and they will have squeezed Labour votes in that time. The question is how much if left. I agree that they have got weaker in the constituency though, they are pretty much dead organisational outside Lampeter and Aberystwyth. A large part of the surge this time has got to have come from students (Ceredigion must have been among Labour's worst, if not the worst, student heavy seat) so next time it will really depend on them properly targeting the constituency as a whole. Obviously, boundary changes could happen and would help them (taking in north Pembrokeshire coast). Largely disagree on the Powys comparison, Ceredigion is a constituency that should have been a lot better for Labour in the past considering it has a large number of students and Welsh speaking population while Powys is essentially Tory countryside with Liberal strength.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2017 21:41:25 GMT
Has Labour's vote share in Ceredigion really been suppressed by tactical voting? I know that Labour were a lot stronger in Ceredigion 40 years ago than they are now. But surely it is a bit of stretch to say that there has been tactical voting for more than 40 years when the vast majority of voters who voted in Ceredigion in the 1970s will either not be alive or will be voting elsewhere. More likely, IMO, is that there has been a genuine decline in Labour's support here over the last 40 years (a la Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire) and that the increase in support for both Labour and the Conservatives in Ceredigion this year simply reflects the fact that Labour and the Conservatives were a lot more popular in Wales at this election than they have been for a while. I think there's got to be some. Ceredigion has been a very clear Plaid-Lib Dem marginal for decades and they will have squeezed Labour votes in that time. The question is how much if left. I agree that they have got weaker in the constituency though, they are pretty much dead organisational outside Lampeter and Aberystwyth. A large part of the surge this time has got to have come from students (Ceredigion must have been among Labour's worst, if not the worst, student heavy seat) so next time it will really depend on them properly targeting the constituency as a whole. Obviously, boundary changes could happen and would help them (taking in north Pembrokeshire coast). Largely disagree on the Powys comparison, Ceredigion is a constituency that should have been a lot better for Labour in the past considering it has a large number of students and Welsh speaking population while Powys is essentially Tory countryside with Liberal strength. North East Fife
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Post by jigger on Sept 11, 2017 21:42:28 GMT
Has Labour's vote share in Ceredigion really been suppressed by tactical voting? I know that Labour were a lot stronger in Ceredigion 40 years ago than they are now. But surely it is a bit of stretch to say that there has been tactical voting for more than 40 years when the vast majority of voters who voted in Ceredigion in the 1970s will either not be alive or will be voting elsewhere. More likely, IMO, is that there has been a genuine decline in Labour's support here over the last 40 years (a la Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire) and that the increase in support for both Labour and the Conservatives in Ceredigion this year simply reflects the fact that Labour and the Conservatives were a lot more popular in Wales at this election than they have been for a while. I think there's got to be some. Ceredigion has been a very clear Plaid-Lib Dem marginal for decades and they will have squeezed Labour votes in that time. The question is how much if left. I agree that they have got weaker in the constituency though, they are pretty much dead organisational outside Lampeter and Aberystwyth. A large part of the surge this time has got to have come from students (Ceredigion must have been among Labour's worst, if not the worst, student heavy seat) so next time it will really depend on them properly targeting the constituency as a whole. Obviously, boundary changes could happen and would help them (taking in north Pembrokeshire coast). Largely disagree on the Powys comparison, Ceredigion is a constituency that should have been a lot better for Labour in the past considering it has a large number of students and Welsh speaking population while Powys is essentially Tory countryside with Liberal strength. In that case, could you also claim that the Conservative vote has been suppressed by tactical voting?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 11, 2017 21:54:48 GMT
What you all need to understand is that a lot of people in rural Wales who always vote nevertheless have no strong partisan feelings whatsoever. Your pseudo-science is useless in this context.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 11, 2017 22:26:19 GMT
In that case, could you also claim that the Conservative vote has been suppressed by tactical voting? Yes, definitely, although their ceiling seems pretty low in 'Welsh' Wales even in better constituencies for them so I wouldn't expect them to be challenging in Ceredigion anytime soon.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 28, 2017 14:22:37 GMT
Westminster (with changes from Sept) Labour: 47% (-3) Conservatives: 31% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 11% (+3) Liberal Democrats: 5% (+1) UKIP: 3% (no change) Others: 3% (+1) No seats would change hands on a if this result was universal. Assembly Constituency seats(changes from Sept) Labour: 43% (no change) Conservatives: 26% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change) Liberal Democrats: 5% (no change) UKIP: 4% (no change) Others: 4% (+1) Again, no seats would change hands on a if this result was universal. Assembly Regional seats (again changes from Sept) Labour: 38% (-2) Conservatives: 27% (+4) Plaid Cymru: 18% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 5% (no change) UKIP: 4% (-1) Others: 8% (+2) If true, the following would be the allocation of the list seats: North Wales: 3 Conservative, 1 Plaid (Con +2, UKIP -2) Mid & West Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Conservative (Lab +1, Con +1, Plaid and UKIP both -1) South Wales West: 3 Conservative, 1 Plaid (Con +2, Plaid and UKIP both -1) South Wales Central: 3 Conservative, 1 Plaid (Con up 1, UKIP down 1) South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid (Con +a, UKIP down 1) Total seats in a new Assembly would be: Labour 30 (+1), Con 18 (+7), Plaid 10 (-2), LD 1 (n/c), UKIP 1 (-6) blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/11/27/the-november-welsh-political-barometer-poll/
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goose
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Post by goose on Nov 29, 2017 13:17:47 GMT
Why do Plaid seem to do so much better at the assembly level?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 29, 2017 13:44:18 GMT
They’re relevant in Cardiff Bay unlike Westminster.
The same could have been said about the SNP until 2014/15. They made huge gains in the Scottish Parliament in 2007 taking minority control yet come 2010 they were stuck on the same six seats they won in 2005.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 26, 2018 15:03:44 GMT
I think we can safely assume there'll be a YouGov/Cardiff University poll out shortly, possibly on March 1st
It wouldn't surprise me to see a BBC and/or YesCymru poll out this week too.
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goose
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Post by goose on Feb 28, 2018 20:15:49 GMT
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Post by Penddu on Mar 1, 2018 7:42:42 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2018 12:58:32 GMT
Good Assembly poll for Plaid. Much better than the YouGov ones. Plaid would increase their representation by 5 being the biggest beneficiaries of UKIPs collapse
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 1, 2018 16:30:19 GMT
They have 5% for Others on the list vote but can't be bothered to break it down. That's poor practice.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2018 16:33:03 GMT
Dont you need more than 5% to enter onthe list?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2018 16:38:58 GMT
But if you are really interested 2% Greens 3% another party
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Mar 1, 2018 16:51:26 GMT
Have to say that I'm rather disappointed with the suggestion that no constituency is likely to change hands at the next round of Assembly elections, especially if (like me) one is lumbered with an AM in dire need of an electoral kicking... Dont you need more than 5% to enter onthe list? There is no statutory vote threshold for the lists in Welsh Assembly elections. Besides, what with there being so few list seats available per region, such a threshold would be rather redundant.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 1, 2018 16:54:11 GMT
Dont you need more than 5% to enter onthe list? It's only for the London Assembly that a list needs to get 5% to be eligible for seats.
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Post by Penddu on Mar 2, 2018 4:48:41 GMT
Practically you need around 7 to 7.5% to win a regional seat but there is not a minimum threshold specified. If Wales is to stick with AMS system but with a greater proportion of regional seats, then I would suggest that a minimum threshold (of say 5%) should be implemented.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Mar 2, 2018 15:48:01 GMT
Could we not introduce a statutory threshold. There really is no good reason to have them.
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