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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:19:53 GMT
Twitter on fire about Survation. Apparently sensational so a big swing and a lead of 5% for yes then? First thing - how do they *know*?? Second thing - why do you have so many CyberNats in your timeline?  Better to immerse yourself with the foe as it were ;-) The sensational bit was me quoting Smithson from the other place really. The betting market has barely moved though. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:24:29 GMT
Well a number has leaked onto twitter. 53/47 in favour of YES.
With 3% MoE too close to call ;-)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:34:38 GMT
Although Macwhirter claims it is the other way round (not sensational then) and survation are bringing the time forward to 10PM. It was the other way round last time wasn't it? I.e 53/47 NO.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:35:30 GMT
Well a number has leaked onto twitter. 53/47 in favour of YES. With 3% MoE too close to call ;-) Twitter says the other way around in favour of NO |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:38:35 GMT
Retweeted by Jonathan Calder
Ray Brown @raymondtcbrown 39m
Survation poll being released at 10:30pm tonight has YES at 53% and NO at 47%. #ScotDecides #indyref pic.twitter.com/4Vsw8ensG0
On one of my feeds.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:51:45 GMT
That's interesting. The twit has umm disapppeared....!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:55:29 GMT
That's interesting. The twit has umm disapppeared....! If it is right though I think we will see a number of FTSE 100 companies talking about their 'foreign' operations. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:58:40 GMT
Well Britain elects has published the following:
Scottish Independence Poll (Survation):
YES - 42.4%
NO - 47.6%
(DK) - 9.9%
So 47/53 in favour of No. But those figures look very much like last time. me confused.com
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:59:53 GMT
Mike Smithson has retweeted the same figures.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 17:03:07 GMT
Bloody hell. I have my heart rate to consider here. Anyway ICM due at the weekend.
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Post by Devonian on Sept 10, 2014 17:03:40 GMT
From ICM boss Martin Boon
Martin Boon @martinboon · 5h
Massive polling weekend to come from @icmresearch in advance of defining week for British constitution. Maybe even something on #indyref
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 10, 2014 17:09:54 GMT
From ICM boss Martin Boon Martin Boon @martinboon · 5h Massive polling weekend to come from @icmresearch in advance of defining week for British constitution. Maybe even something on #indyref the polling companies are certainly milking this for all its worth...  |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 10, 2014 17:24:55 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 10, 2014 17:50:05 GMT
You might be surprised at the number of Yes posters in windows in Morningside then. Oh no I wouldn't. Richer thick twats. |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 10, 2014 18:04:59 GMT
Survation Regional sub samples
Highlands and Islands
Yes 40.3%
No 43.9%
South Scotland
Yes 38.0%
No 55.1%
Central Scotland
Yes 50.3%
No 38.1%
Glasgow
Yes 40.8%
No 49.1%
West Scotland
Yes 51.3%
No 39.4%
Lothian
Yes 38.4%
No 54.2%
Mid Scotland & Fife
Yes 36.2%
No 51.9%
North East Scotland
Yes 43.9%
No 47.2%
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 10, 2014 18:14:48 GMT
Survation Regional sub samples Highlands and Islands Yes 40.3% No 43.9% South Scotland Yes 38.0% No 55.1% Central Scotland Yes 50.3% No 38.1% Glasgow Yes 40.8% No 49.1% West Scotland Yes 51.3% No 39.4% Lothian Yes 38.4% No 54.2% Mid Scotland & Fife Yes 36.2% No 51.9% North East Scotland Yes 43.9% No 47.2% Those figures seem to roughly match up with my predictions. I've got the following areas voting Yes: Dundee, Western Isles, Clackmannanshire, Falkirk, Moray. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/edit#gid=0 |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 10, 2014 18:14:58 GMT
Mike Smithson reporting that there is due to be another YouGov poll tomorrow night for The Times
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 10, 2014 18:16:56 GMT
You might be surprised at the number of Yes posters in windows in Morningside then. No I'm not in the least surprised - just as I'm not surprised that Richmond Park has one of the higher membership CLPs. There were a couple of streets in my home town populated largely by teachers etc and it often appeared at election time that every other house had a Labour board outside, but then Labour always got a derisory vote in that ward. Just that the supporters of 'progressive' causes in these kinds of areas tend to be more active and outspoken about things. They still only get one vote each of course |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 10, 2014 18:21:48 GMT
Reckon there's a decent chance that geographical patterns will be relatively uniform (as in, certain tendencies will be there, but nothing like the starkness of the Quebec referendums).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 18:28:28 GMT
Reckon there's a decent chance that geographical patterns will be relatively uniform (as in, certain tendencies will be there, but nothing like the starkness of the Quebec referendums). I think you're right. What Scotland lacks is an obvious demographic that is both overwhelmingly No and geographically concentrated. There's no equivalent to Québec anglophones and West Montreal etc. |
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