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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 27, 2020 10:41:16 GMT
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Post by Wisconsin on Nov 28, 2020 10:55:59 GMT
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Post by Penddu on Nov 28, 2020 13:26:50 GMT
I am very confused - what does this mean for Wales - 32 seats including Ynys Mon? With an electoral quota of
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 28, 2020 13:49:26 GMT
I don't think we have the crucial 2 March 2020 electoral registration stats yet but we can take the nearest figures:
England 39,476,140 (Feb 2020) Wales 2,349,434 (Dec 2019) Scotland 3,988,550 (Dec 2019) Northern Ireland 1,295,688 (Mar 2020)
Total: 47,109,812
Preserved constituencies: Isle of Wight 111,440; Ynys Môn 50,734; Orkney and Shetland 34,419; Na h-Eileanan an Iar 21,202 - total 217,795
So the electoral quota is 72,701.
Wales is entitled to 31.6 seats + Ynys Môn.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Nov 28, 2020 17:36:41 GMT
I don't think we have the crucial 2 March 2020 electoral registration stats yet but we can take the nearest figures: England 39,476,140 (Feb 2020) Wales 2,349,434 (Dec 2019) Scotland 3,988,550 (Dec 2019) Northern Ireland 1,295,688 (Mar 2020) Total: 47,109,812 Preserved constituencies: Isle of Wight 111,440; Ynys Môn 50,734; Orkney and Shetland 34,419; Na h-Eileanan an Iar 21,202 - total 217,795 So the electoral quota is 72,701. Wales is entitled to 31.6 seats + Ynys Môn. By my calculations that would be: England 541+1 Seats Wales 32+1 Seats Scotland 55+2 Seats Northern Ireland 18 Seats.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 28, 2020 17:44:59 GMT
Isle of Wight is two preserved constituencies. So I think it's:
England: 541 + 2 in the Isle of Wight Wales: 32 + Ynys Môn Scotland: 54 + Orkney and Shetland + Na h-Eileanan an Iar Northern Ireland: 18
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,820
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 28, 2020 18:08:32 GMT
Using the data that kevinlarkin has at his disposal (which is likely to be changed once the electorate data dump happens in January) here is my first stab at Northern Ireland Constituency Descriptions and notional statusAntrim South and Ballyclare 93.40% of Antrim South 6.79% of Belfast North Safe DUP Ballymena and the Giant's Causeway 90.99% of Antrim North Safe DUP Banbridge and South Down 77.26% of Down South 13.37% of Upper Bann Marginal Sinn Fein Bangor 100% of Down North 8.76% of Strangford Marginal Alliance Belfast, Botanic and Newtownbreada 89.89% of Belfast South 6.76% of Lagan Valley 6.87% of Strangford Safe SDLP Belfast, Colin Glen 93.92% of Belfast West 6.76% of Lagan Valley Safe Sinn Fein Belfast, Dundonald 100% of Belfast East 10.11% of Belfast South Marginal DUP Belfast, Titanic 7.58% of Antrim East 93.21% of Belfast North 6.08% of Belfast West Ultra Marginal Sinn Fein Carrickfergus and Larne 92.42% of Antrim East 9.01% of Antrim North 6.60% of Antrim South Safe DUP Coleraine and Limvady 3.76% of Foyle 100% of Londonderry East Safe DUP Cookstown and Magherafelt 100% of Ulster Mid Safe Sinn Fein Enniskillen and Dungannon 90.94% of Fermanagh and South Tyrone 4.84% of Newry and Armagh Ultra Marginal Sinn Fein Foyle 96.24% of Foyle Safe SDLP Lisburn 4.13% of South Down 86.32% of Lagan Valley 3.90% of Upper Bann Safe DUP Lurgan 4.34% of Newry and Armagh 82.73% of Upper Bann Safe DUP Mid Down and the Mournes 18.61% of South Down 84.36% of Strangford Safe DUP Newry and Armagh 90.82% of Newry and Armagh Safe Sinn Fein Omagh and Rural Tyrone 9.06% of Fermanagh and South Tyrone 100% of Tyrone West Safe Sinn Fein
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Post by greenhert on Nov 28, 2020 20:56:50 GMT
I don't think we have the crucial 2 March 2020 electoral registration stats yet but we can take the nearest figures: England 39,476,140 (Feb 2020) Wales 2,349,434 (Dec 2019) Scotland 3,988,550 (Dec 2019) Northern Ireland 1,295,688 (Mar 2020) Total: 47,109,812 Preserved constituencies: Isle of Wight 111,440; Ynys Môn 50,734; Orkney and Shetland 34,419; Na h-Eileanan an Iar 21,202 - total 217,795 So the electoral quota is 72,701. Wales is entitled to 31.6 seats + Ynys Môn. Did you obtain these figures from the ONS website?
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Post by Penddu on Nov 29, 2020 4:50:21 GMT
I don't think we have the crucial 2 March 2020 electoral registration stats yet but we can take the nearest figures: England 39,476,140 (Feb 2020) Wales 2,349,434 (Dec 2019) Scotland 3,988,550 (Dec 2019) Northern Ireland 1,295,688 (Mar 2020) Total: 47,109,812 Preserved constituencies: Isle of Wight 111,440; Ynys Môn 50,734; Orkney and Shetland 34,419; Na h-Eileanan an Iar 21,202 - total 217,795 So the electoral quota is 72,701. Wales is entitled to 31.6 seats + Ynys Môn. Thanks. My head was exploding with the permutations....
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Post by therealriga on Nov 29, 2020 17:01:22 GMT
Using the data that kevinlarkin has at his disposal (which is likely to be changed once the electorate data dump happens in January) here is my first stab at Northern Ireland Constituency Descriptions and notional statusBelfast, Titanic 7.58% of Antrim East 93.21% of Belfast North 6.08% of Belfast West Ultra Marginal Sinn Fein The Titanic Quarter is the other side of the river in East Belfast, so can't be used as a descriptor for this. Without seeing the detail, some of those changes seem unnecessary. This has been discussed elsewhere but the west is mostly fine. All that needs to happen is West Tyrone gaining a ward from Foyle. - East Antrim needs to gain 3 wards from North Antrim. Glenwhirry, Slemish and Glenravel seems the best option, but the other is extending north to Kinbane. - Belfast North gains Hightown ward from South Antrim. - Belfast South and West both need no changes on 2015 figures, though West is slightly undersized on 2020 figures. It gains Derryaghy from Lagan Valley. - Lagan Valley is ok after that loss, but gains Aghagallon ward from Upper Bann to allow changes there. - Belfast East gains 3 wards from North Down. - North Down gains the Ards Peninsula from Strangford. - Strangford gains 6 wards around Downpatrick from South Down. - South Down gains 5 wards around Banbridge and Loughbrickland from Upper Bann. - Upper Bann gains Loughgall and Tandragee wards from Newry & Armagh. The electorate figures published on the EONI site don't suggest much has changed since 2015, though, confusingly, they use the old wards, making it difficult to calculate.
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Post by evergreenadam on Nov 30, 2020 6:47:45 GMT
I don't think we have the crucial 2 March 2020 electoral registration stats yet but we can take the nearest figures: England 39,476,140 (Feb 2020) Wales 2,349,434 (Dec 2019) Scotland 3,988,550 (Dec 2019) Northern Ireland 1,295,688 (Mar 2020) Total: 47,109,812 Preserved constituencies: Isle of Wight 111,440; Ynys Môn 50,734; Orkney and Shetland 34,419; Na h-Eileanan an Iar 21,202 - total 217,795 So the electoral quota is 72,701. Wales is entitled to 31.6 seats + Ynys Môn. How does the Feb 2020 England figure compare with the GE electorate? Any sign of an unwind in voter registration?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 30, 2020 9:19:47 GMT
The GE total electorate in England was 39,897,593 so 1.1% higher.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,358
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Post by YL on Nov 30, 2020 9:33:22 GMT
Who would have fallen off the register in that period?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 30, 2020 10:09:08 GMT
People who had died/emigrated/double registered during the year and had not had their old registration cancelled.
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Post by robert1 on Nov 30, 2020 11:00:52 GMT
There was certainly one authority where, in the rush to ensure the inclusion of all the new registrations for the GE, they duplicated many people on the roll. The affect was that the roll was much bigger than expected and the turnout was apparently much lower than in neighbouring boroughs. I believe that authority cleansed the register in the new year.
For information-I posted elsewhere that the March 2nd data will be available on January 5th 2021.
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Post by islington on Nov 30, 2020 11:39:42 GMT
The GE total electorate in England was 39,897,593 so 1.1% higher. That is interesting because on the basis of Dec 2019 electorates Wales (excl Anglesey) has only a marginal claim to a 32nd seat. If the Welsh electorate shows a similar decline of 1% or so between December and March, then Wales may lose that seat and end up with 31 + Anglesey. If so, the extra seat would presumably go to either England or Scotland.
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Post by greenhert on Nov 30, 2020 16:57:39 GMT
When will they schedule Royal Assent for the Parliamentary Constituencies Bill? They need to get it out of the way and get that review started; Royal Assent is just a formality.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,820
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 30, 2020 19:03:06 GMT
When will they schedule Royal Assent for the Parliamentary Constituencies Bill? They need to get it out of the way and get that review started; Royal Assent is just a formality. Probably for when Parliament breaks for Christmas
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 4, 2020 11:01:00 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 4, 2020 11:03:05 GMT
When it was first put forward as a Tory whinge after Cameron failed to win the 2010 general election, it was supposed to deliver 60-70 seats. Ho hum.
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